Champions League Preview: Tuesday/Wednesday
We have a four-game slate to play on Tuesday/Wednesday in the Champions League, and there’s a definite limit of options in some places — especially if you choose to include in your lineup the slate’s clear superstar.
You’ll notice in roster construction a real lack of value options at striker in this DraftKings slate, limiting combinations that you can use aside Cristiano Ronaldo. There seems to be a relatively high number of midfielders to choose from, with a likely definite lack of low-end defenders to roster. It’s a tightrope to use Ronaldo on this slate; if you do, the others in the same boat are probably using the same small number of available options to fill out their rosters as well.
Also, make sure you have enough cap room/a proper pivot for any Wednesday individual you roster — just in case. Make sure you have both utility spots with Wednesday players, especially if you go with five midfielders, just in case your strong play doesn’t make his team’s starting 11.
Chelsea at PSG, Tuesday
PSG are 4/6 favorites to win at home against Chelsea (9/2 to win, 13/5 to draw), and this matchup is possibly the most even of the four on this slate, which is surprising because of the level of talent both teams put out on a weekly basis individually. Luck of the draw goes better, and each side would’ve been through against lesser sides, at least on paper.
For each team, some changes in the back; John Terry is out for Chelsea while Serge Aurier was suspended by PSG for comments made via Periscope over the weekend. Stay off the internet, kids. This plays in some potential value at defense — Baba Rahman ($2,100) should be widely owned on this slate as he gets the start for Chelsea at left back. Branislav Ivanovic ($4,300) slides inside and becomes much less attractive, especially at that price point. Gregory van der Wiel ($3,700) is the best play of the lot overall, but the price tag might be hard to shoehorn in overall because of options at midfield and striker. In net, Thibault Courtois ($3,900) and Kevin Trapp ($4,200) are relatively expensive options in a really even match — a win isn’t a given for either. Personally, I prefer Courtois, one of the world’s best, while Trapp has a home start and double digits output in each of PSG’s six matches in the group stage. Trapp isn’t a bad play if you can spend up to his pricetag, but he has a history of some really poor goals given up, some real backbreakers. Even one goal against kills your ceiling.
Speaking of the midfield, you have two top shelf options in Willian ($8,000) and Angel Di Maria ($7,700) in this one. They’re the top two priced options, and rightfully so. Anyone who’s been playing EPL on a weekly basis doesn’t need to be sold on Willian; Di Maria could be in even better form as of late. Trying to fit either with a certain Portuguese striker (more to come) might be rather difficult to get in, but both are dead certain to hit double digits on Tuesday because of their free kick duties. Neither takes penalties for their teams, but things can’t be perfect.
The remainder of midfielders are tough to really pin your hopes on; Chelsea’s Oscar ($5,800), Edin Hazard ($5,300) and Cesc Fabregas ($5,100) all could score or be really low in the single digits. Hazard, once easily a top shelf option and priced that way, has been downright terrible this season and just got his first start this past weekend — and only got two points from 90 minutes of play. I’d avoid all three unless you really want to be contrarian, against a really strong PSG midfield trio of Marco Veratti ($5,000), Blaise Matuidi ($4,400) and Andre Rabiot ($3,400). Those three are mostly charged with winning the ball for PSG’s front three attackers and shielding their back four; all have offensive abilities, but goals and assists are few and far between.
At forward, it’s a shame that DK did not include Lucas Moura in the player pool — he would have been a really nice mid-range option to choose from, another option that differentiate from other players’ lineup. Same with Chelsea’s Pedro. Moura likely starts in place of Edison Cavani ($6,400), while the big dogs are in play as contrarian options to Ronaldo as Diego Costa ($7,000) is on fire for the visitors while of course, there is Zlatan Ibrahimovic ($8,500). In Chelsea’s last six matches, Costa has four goals and three assists — whatever Guus Hiddink has done/Jose Mourinho didn’t do with the Spanish international, it’s working. Zlatan sat on the weekend for PSG, but prior to that in 2016, the Swedish striker has seven goals and two assists in eight matches. It’s simple; both are excellent plays, but neither have the ceiling of Ronaldo or even Karim Benzema, especially in what could be a really tightly played series between these two.
Zenit St. Petersburg at Benfica, Tuesday
First of all, let me bring up that Zenit hasn’t played a competitive match since the Champions League group stage ended in mid-December The Russian domestic league starts up again in March, leaving Zenit playing a string of friendlies prior to their trip to Lisbon for the first leg. So temper your choices from Zenit with that in mind. Benfica is a 11/10 favorite to win at home.
Juri Lodygin ($3,400) had a really strong group stage for Zenit, and that price tag is a really nice way to spend elsewhere in your lineup. Two out of four starts resulted in double digit outputs for Lodygin; let’s face that the win is a longshot, but even a draw/loss could turn out just fine with a high number of saves. There’s only eight keepers to choose from; you’ve got to find value at keeper if you want to really spend up at your midfield and utility spots. Julio Cesar ($3,800) has a home start, but Benfica kept only one clean sheet from six group stage matches and in league play in 2016 has only three clean sheets from eight games.
With Luisao out for Benfica, keep an eye on who starts at right back — Andre Almeida is listed as a midfielder, but Silvio ($2,800) might be a sub-$3k option while Eliseu ($3,200) isn’t enough of an offensive threat for that pricetag. For Zenit, Domenico Criscito ($2,900) and Alex Anyukov ($2,600) are in a similar vein — I’d shop elsewhere. Midfield is a bit richer of a hunting ground; for the hosts, you have Nicolas Gaitan ($5,200), who was in double digits in all of his five appearances in the group stage for Benfica. He takes corners and free kicks for Benfica, but not penalties (striker Jonas does). Gaitan should be heavily owned, but those looking for a low-priced option to squeeze into a lineup should focus on Renato Sanches ($2,500). They 18 year old stud has made himself pretty indispensable in Benfica’s attack, albeit in a central midfield role. He has two goals this season and might be a necessity if you spend elsewhere.
Zenit’s Oleg Shatov ($4,400) plays on Zenit’s right opposite Hulk, and scored twice in four group stage starts, He’s not an orthodox winger, so do not expect a load of crosses — but the point output is hard to ignore. At forward in this match, you have six — yes, six — viable options to choose from. It’s hard to use more than one because a) Ronaldo or another high-end striker will take one of the two spots, and b) loading up on midfielders seems to be the way to win with DK’s current scoring system. You have Hulk ($7,500), Artem Dzyuba ($6,000) and Danny ($5,000) for the visitors — Hulk has the highest ceiling, but a reminder that Dzyuba is the lead striker and scored six in six in the group stage. Hulk does take the set pieces for Zenit, ergo a built in floor to build with. Dzyuba will remain the lesser owned of the pair, with Danny in the #10 role but not the fulcrum of Zenit’s attack.
Benfica should start Jonas ($6,500), Kostos Mitroglou ($4,700) and Pizzi ($3,500) in their starting lineup-Pizzi’s your budget option, a winger who can shoot from distance and can cross when called upon. Neither Jonas or Mitroglou is a classical target striker, but both consistently find the back of the net. Mitroglou has eight goals in his last six matches, while Jonas has 10 in seven. The Liga Soares, people — lots of goals. Both are excellent options, but Mitroglou’s price tag is a pretty nice option to use as a second forward. Jonas, again, is the penalty taker — so there’s that potential opportunity to get goals from.
VfL Wolfsburg at KAA Gent, Wednesday
Both of these teams weren’t expected to advance from the group stage, and the draw brings them together instead of being cannon fodder for the European big boys. Wolfsburg has been, at best, inconsistent in league play since the Bundesliga returned its winter break. Gent has won four of its last five league matches and is the host in this one, a slight favorite to win. Gent has two potential injury questions in midfielders Danjiel Milicevic ($4,200) and possible starting wing Brecht Dejaegere ($2,500), both prime plays if included. Dejaegere’s price tag is a prime value play waiting to happen, while Milicevic takes all the team’s set pieces and penalties.
Gent’s starting keeper Matz Sels ($3,300) is alongside Lodygin as a value option at keeper; Sels has a home start, albeit for a Gent side who plays three in the back with two defensive midfielders in front of that backline. If it comes down to one versus the other, normally the keeper at home gets the better output — however, my personal preference would be with Zenit and Lodygin because of a better defensive backline. Diego Benaglio ($4,000) is a bit high priced for my liking, and the situation he and Wolfsburg walk into on Wednesday is far from perfect — but the Swiss keeper might win someone a GPP. He’ll be extremely low owned, likely will see a lot of action coming his way, and is far from a safe play. The definition of boom or bust on this slate.
For defenders in this one, it’s all on Wolfsburg — Gent’s back three is far from DFS friendly, and the rest of their lineup is based in the midfield and forward pool on DK. For Wolfsburg, Ricardo Rodriguez ($3,600) was rested on the weekend in favor of Marcel Schafer ($2,700) and Dieter Heckling might keep the latter in the starting lineup. IF so, Schafer is a strong sub-$3k option at defender to use in this slate. Christian Trasch ($3,400) has been a pretty consistent point producer and if you can fit him into your lineup, he’s likely not going to hurt you with a decent floor.
In midfield, there are several sub-$5k options to fill any number of lineups in this slate. Aside from the aforementioned Milicevic and Dejaegere, Thomas Foket ($3,200) mans the other wing and could hit double digits to more than return value for that price tag. For Wolfsburg, you have both Daniel Caligiuri ($4,600) — heavily goal dependent and not an orthodox winger — and Vieirinha ($3,400), who also won’t rack up the crosses from the run of play but could see a share of set pieces, especially if Rodriguez does not start.
Wolfsburg doesn’t have Bas Dost because of injury, so Max Kruse ($5,000) is the certain starter up top, especially with Andre Schurrle banged up. Kruse has been ice cold for the most part for Wolfsburg as of late and doesn’t seem like the best of plays, especially with others in the same price range like Mitroglou and Gent’s Laurent Depoitre ($4,200). Depoitre isn’t on fire for Gent domestically, but is a better bet to find the back of the net at a better price point.
Real Madrid at Roma, Wednesday
Despite being on the road, Madrid are the biggest favorites on this two-day slate. Roma’s defense was a complete sieve in group play; it has improved somewhat in the past few months in league play, but Madrid probably won’t be kept off the scoreboard.
In fact, the only keeper on this slate I can’t build an argument to choose from is Roma’s Wojciech Szczesny ($3,600). Stay far away, folks. If you spend up, I have to suggest using Keylor Navas ($4,300) — the Real keeper is the slate’s most likely option to get a win from the pool of keepers, and the road start against an inconsistent Roma attack should keep Navas relatively busy to boost his save totals.
For defenders, Real will likely be without Marcelo (shoulder dislocation); Zinedine Zidane has the option of using Dani Carvajal ($3,900) at either left or right back (he started at left back on the weekend, and then went to a more familiar right back spot in the second half) with either Nacho ($2,800) or Danilo ($3,600) opposite the Spanish international. Nacho’s the better value, but a more defensive defender while Danilo is the more attacking option but has been very inconsistent in his play since joining Madrid last summer. For Roma, Lucas Digne ($3,600) has been a pretty consistent producer DFS wise, but this just isn’t the matchup to use him, especially at that price tag. If you’re really in a bind salary wise, and you need a minimum play, Roma central defender Ervin Zukanovic ($2,000) is there if Rahman just isn’t enough.
Midfield gives us the big names on both sides — James Rodriguez ($6,200) for Madrid and Miralem Pjanic ($5,500) for Roma, paired with a handful of sub $5k options with either low floors/high ceilings, or in the case of Toni Kroos ($4,200), a decent floor but not a high ceiling. Kroos takes corners for Madrid, and he could grab an assist or two from that — but goals for the German international are few and far between.
For Madrid, Rodriguez likely takes the place of Gareth Bale in Madrid’s front three attackers alongside Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, and by far is the cheapest of the three. He’s got two goals and two assists from Madrid’s last four matches and isn’t the worst option if you want to spend up at midfield and want a lower percentage owned than Di Maria or Willian. Isco isn’t in Madrid’s front three anymore, so his point production opportunities will be heavily limited.
Roma’s Pjanic is a known quantity; he takes the team’s free kicks and corners and shares penalty duties with Dzeko. If you go with Pjanic in your lineup, you have to hope Roma can keep possession and get chances going forward to have Pjanic get chances from dead ball opportunities. Mohammed Salah ($3,800) scored on the weekend in league play and that price tag is nice, but he’s carrying a thigh injury and might miss out. Salah’s not going to rack up crosses, but he’s in a real vein of form and should be in the discussion for value midfielders in this slate. If Salah doesn’t go, Diego Perotti ($3,200) might get the call — he’s played as a false nine and a #10 for Roma since signing in January and has a goal and assist in three matches.
At forward, your options are pretty straight forward.
For Madrid, you have Ronaldo — by far the highest floor and ceiling overall, Benzema ($8,000) in the running for the next best ceiling, and…Dzeko ($6,000), who has had a pretty poor season for Roma but scored this past weekend and is the lead striker in Roma’s formation. He’ll have his chances — but will they be limited, and can Dzeko take advantage of any? If he was lesser priced, I’d suggest him with a some confidence, but at $6k I’d look elsewhere. Stephen El-Shaarawy ($5,400) is not a bad player, but that price tag is prohibitive to use the Egyptian. He’ll be low owned, so if El-Shaarawy hits the back of the net you’ll be among a few brave souls.