Champions League Preview: Tuesday/Wednesday
We have a four-game, two-day Champions League slate that kicks off Tuesday afternoon with a multitude of ways to go in lineup construction.
Let us start with these three truths about the slate:
1. There are a lot of big names in play that you have to pay up for.
2. In Tuesday’s matchups, a lot of those big names face each other.
3. Unless injuries force the hands of managers naming their starting elevens, value will be few and far between.
Roster construction on DraftKings this week is not easy peasy, to put it simply.
Arsenal vs. Barcelona, Tuesday
In mid-December, the draw for the knockout stage took place, and provided immeasurable nightmare fuel for Gunners fans out there. Barcelona and Arsenal have faced off three times over the last six competitions in the knockout stage, and let’s just say it has not gone well for the English part of the equation. Barca had a road win, albeit with some bumps, this weekend in league play at Las Palmas while Arsenal rested several starters in a scoreless home draw in the FA Cup against Hull City — the Championship (English first division) leaders.
Barcelona is on the last of three road trips; even with the amount of days between games it takes somewhat of a toll — although it’s not a NBA or NHL level of grind, really. They’re clear favorites in this one, and you know why from the jump — the front three of Leo Messi ($10,400), Luis Suarez ($9,400) and Neymar ($9,000). It’s the murderers row you know and perhaps love/respect — Messi has six goals and three assists in five matches this month, Suarez ten/five and Neymar two and two relatively lagging behind.
Over at RotoWire, Andrew Laird has laid out the folly of thinking you can buy value from the relatively cheaper Barcelona options based on league output from the aforementioned last six matches. As you can see, there’s a lot of Messi and Suarez in the mix. The positive is that you and I will know who Luis Enrique starts come Tuesday before kickoff in order to gauge whether Barca’s midfield will provide any level of value. All signs are pointing towards Enrique rolling out Andres Iniesta ($4,300), Ivan Rakitic ($4,200) and Sergio Busquets ($3,800) over more DFS friendly options Sergi Roberto ($3,600) and Arda Turan ($3,100). Turan would be a very nice value if he got the start, but on the road, look for Enrique to go with the more tested trio above.
It’s hard to see Dani Alves ($4,300) or Jordi Alba ($4,200) fitting into most rosters, especially if you spend up at one or both strikers this week. They’re nice plays, but only Alves hit double digits during the group stage and on the road it’s hard to see either consistently getting forward in the attack — it’s down to the front three when it comes to the counterattack on Tuesday.
For the hosts, they succinctly need a return engagement of the effort and result they got at home versus Bayern in the group stage. The 2-0 victory came from a combination of late Arsenal goals from Olivier Giroud ($7,800) and Mesut Ozil ($8,100), an overall superb defensive performance and Bayern having a rare off-night when it came to finishing they chances there were able to carve out. It all began with Petr Cech ($3,700) in net — let’s just say Arsenal perhaps a five to fifteen percent chance of repeating that night at the Emirates. I think Cech’s ownership rate falls into that range. Cech could win a GPP for someone or just get housed in the end. He’s a difficult play even at that mid-range salary, even including EPL bias.
It’s the same with defenders Hector Bellerin ($4,200) and Nacho Monreal ($3,900), midfielder Aaron Ramsey ($6,200) and Alexis Sanchez ($8,000) up top. Specifically, Sanchez should have really low ownership rates because of his price tag and the matchup paired with no goals since returning from injury in late January. I can’t see using Sanchez outside of a mini-Arsenal stack, especially in cash lineups. Whomever starts between Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ($4,700) or Theo Walcott ($5,400) has some intrinsic value because of their price, but the floor on both are very low, especially in this matchup. Barca will hold possession as much as possible, even on the road — which limits the chances for crosses, fouls drawn, those secondary scoring categories.
Juventus vs. Bayern Munich, Tuesday
While Arsenal/Barca might grab a majority of headlines, this matchup has (almost as much) star power both collectively and individually. It also should be much more stingy and played with neither team wanting to give up too much to the other, meaning it could be far from DFS friendly. The hosts have a bit more overall value when it comes to salary as a whole, but against the runaway Bundesliga leaders and last year’s Champions League finalists? Bayern’s a road favorite in this one (6/4, 21/10 draw, Juve 19/10 to win at home) — that speaks a lot in the end.
Let’s start with both keepers. Gigi Buffon ($3,600) and Manuel Neuer ($4,100) remain two of the world’s best in goal, and both should be decently owned on Tuesday. I can’t see any goalkeeper above 25% in a GPP on this slate; maybe no one hits even 20%. Neuer averaged 13.5 in two road starts during the group stage, Buffon 10.67 in three home starts. I really like Neuer in this one, putting aside reasons I’ll go into; he should see a decent amount of action and still has a really strong chance for a clean sheet and/or win from this match.
But it’s hard not to give Buffon his due in this match, regardless of the opposition. Juventus has given up just one — ONE — goal in their last 11 matches overall, with ten wins in a row stopped this past weekend in a scoreless draw at Bologna. Italians are known for defense for a reason, and they’ll need to be at their best on Tuesday. Patrice Evra ($3,100), who should start ahead of Alex Sandro ($2,800) at left back opposite right back Stephan Lichtsteiner ($3,600) is more known going forward than defending; both would be normally strong options, but likely both will see a lot of time in their own third trying to keep Bayern’s wings at bay. More on them in a bit.
At midfield and forward for Juventus, the options are limited — but there is decent value and a home start is in play. Paul Pogba ($5,300) is in play with tournaments, but in the end, the dynamo is still a central midfielder who’s ceiling is limited without finding the scoresheet. More in play in most lineups are forwards Paulo Dybala ($4,900) and to a lesser degree, Mario Mandzukic ($6,100). The former is an option in all formats, while Mandzukic is a clear tournament play. Let’s start with Mandzukic; after a long-term injury, the Croatian was announced that he’ll get the start by manager Massimiliano Allegri in the place of Alvaro Morata, who hasn’t scored in his last four games for Juventus. In three starts (and one appearance as a sub) for Mandzukic in 2016, he has no goals.
Dybala, on the other hand, should have really strong ownership as a second forward in a lineup that contains Messi/Suarez/other high-end striker. Dybala takes a majority of Juve’s free kicks and corners, while he and Pogba have traded penalty responses this season. Here’s a stat: of five penalties this season (per Transfermarkt), Juventus has only been successful in four— Pogba’s one of two, while Dybala is perfect with his three chances.
For Bayern, you have a smorgasbord of options, none of which are really cheap unless Pep Guardiola springs some surprises. There are some injuries in the back for the visitors, which should see David Alaba ($4,000) partner Joshua Kimmwich ($2,700) in central defense unless Medhi Benatia or Serdar Tasci are passed fit. Why do I go into this in depth? First, Neuer does have a bit of a patchwork defense in front of him, which isn’t optimal, and secondly, Alaba is DFS GPP winning gold when he gets to play at outside back. He doesn’t get crosses, but finds himself constantly in the attack for Bayern. With the injuries, that’s likely not going to happen aside from perhaps a free kick chance or two.
In midfield, Bayern have several ways to go — on the wing, Arjen Robben ($7,000) should start on the right with Thiago Alcantra ($3,600) centrally a lower cost option. Robben’s still rounding into form after an injury saw him miss parts of the first half of Bayern’s season, and six games (five starts) the Dutch winger hasn’t grabbed a goal or assist. He’d be a strong play, especially against Evra or Sandro, but form is a definite question. Alcantra’s salary, his share of deadball responsibilities and past performance should have him heavily owned in this slate. Without a goal in four group stage games for Bayern, Alcantra averaged 16.1 points on DraftKings — that’s hard to beat. Unless Juventus’ trio in the middle (Pogba, former Bayern player Sami Khedira and Claudio Marchisio) shuts him out, value should be returned by Alcantra — but to what multiple? He’ll need to find the scoresheet via goals or assists to hit his ceiling, but Alcantra fits into all kinds of lineup structures in this slate.
Three Bayern forwards jump to the forefront as strong plays. The trio of Robert Lewandowski ($8,500), Thomas Muller ($7,700) and Douglas Costa ($7,100) are all part of the lineup discussion — but like Barca, who do you roster? Perhaps even more that Messi/Suarez/Neymar, guessing who produces from this trip can be difficult to gauge. The highest floor is easily Costa’s; the closest to an orthodox winger that Bayern has, the Brazilian shares free kick duties and his production during the group stage is impossible to ignore. Since returning from the winter break, Costa has two assists in six matches — and at that price tag and with the dearth of value plays at midfield and especially defense, it’s going to be hard to squeeze in Costa alongside one of the big names at a forward spot.
Lewandowski and Muller both having higher ceilings than Costa, but remain tournament options, especially against a strong Juve backline and being somewhat goal dependent. Muller’s second of two goals from this weekend was superb — I’ll wait while you YouTube it — and Lewandowski is still the tip of the Bayern spear. In that same six game span as the rest of his Bayern teammates, the Polish forward has nine goals, to Muller’s three. Lewandowski should have much lower ownership rates than Messi and Suarez, and is definitely in that lower tier that he should share with Muller, Giroud, Sanchez, Antoine Griezmann and Sergio Aguero on the higher end salary option category.
Dynamo Kiev vs. Manchester City, Wednesday
On paper, this could perhaps be thought of as a clear advantage for the visitors, despite their uneven play as of late and mounting injury list. Kiev, like Zenit last week, has not played a competitive match since December because of the Ukrainian domestic league schedule. But unlike Zenit, Kiev has kept busy with 13 friendlies since the start of 2016. Yes, friendlies are the same, but match fitness shouldn’t be a problem. It’s a home match for Kiev against a weakened City team that is without Kevin de Bruyne, Jesus Navas, Fabian Delph, Samir Nasri, Wilfried Bony amongst others. Yes, City rested several players on the weekend as they got spanked in the FA Cup by Chelsea , but even after a break the same players have played a lot of games especially with no break in the English season.
The visitors have talent that is extremely DFS-friendly, but it’s not performing at nearly full strength as of late. You have at forward Sergio Aguero ($8,800) and Raheem Sterling ($6,400), both of whom could easily explode and win someone a GPP at a low ownership percentage. Aguero has seven goals in his last six matches for City, and easily is his team’s most usable option on Wednesday. Sterling is ice cold but still has the speed and talent to have multiple goals/assists. In midfield, Yaya Toure ($5,900) and David Silva ($5,800) are in play, but…Toure hasn’t hit double digits on DK in his last six and seems to be floating through this season. Silva has a much higher floor with crosses/corners in his foot locker, but he’s only gotten double digits in two of seven matches in 2016 and only one of those was a huge game (30 DK points at home versus Crystal Palace). An Aguero/Silva mini-stack has a lot of merit to it, as it should be relatively underowned.
If he starts, Gael Clichy ($2,300) should be heavily owned because of that low price tag. He’s not flashy, Clichy won’t likely get to double digits but at that salary you only need 6-9 from the French left back if he gets the call over Alex Kolarov ($5,300). Pablo Zabaleta ($2,600) is a nice value as well, as he should start at right back. Again, you’re just looking for 2-3x value, and anything more (from an assist or goal) is just sweet, sweet icing. Joe Hart ($4,000) might be the highest-owned goalkeeper on the slate, but a road start in front of an undependable backline scares me off the England international. Hart has gotten negative points in two of his last five league matches.
Kiev brings a small handful of options on Wednesday. In goal, Oleksander Shovkovskiy ($3,400) will be the low-priced darling of the slate for those looking to a home starter to help fit in salaries elsewhere. In five group stage starts, Shovkovskiy returned double digits in four and averaged 12.2 points. If you’re going low in goal, it’s hard to ignore this option. At defender, Danilo Silva ($3,600) is a solid play but that salary is hard to fit in if you’re trying to spend down in the back. Midfielder Oleg Gusev ($3,200) shares free kick responsibilities, and that price tag makes him very attractive in order to fit others in your lineup — if he starts. Danys Garmash ($3,400) isn’t a bad play as well, but he’s a central midfielder with no free kick responsibilities. Very boom or bust, but with value hard to find, he might have to be included in your lineup.
Kiev’s best two outfield options come at forward. Alongside Dybala, Andriy Yarmalenko ($5,300) is the strongest cash game play alongside one of the bigger names in a forward partnership. He takes corners, is pretty consistent with crosses and domestically has scored eight in 15 league appearances. City’s defense is breachable, even more than what Dybala faces against Bayern. I also really like Derlis Gonzalez ($4,400). The Costa Rican forward/winger hit double digits in three of six group stage starts, and while Yarmalenko takes most of the set pieces, Gonzalez’s speed is a real asset against a City defense that is far from the most mobile and consistently gets beat for pace.
PSV Eindhoven vs. Atletico Madrid, Wednesday
Perhaps the most underrated of the foursome — it doesn’t have the big names of Tuesday’s games, or the EPL awareness that City gives the other tilt on Wednesday — PSV/Atletico likely offers the widest range of mid-level salary options for this slate with some really solid options.
In goal, there’s a low to mid-level salary option with a home start, albeit as an underdog — PSV’s Jeroen Zoet ($3,500) — paired against perhaps my favorite keeper on the slate, Aletico’s Jan Oblak ($3,900). PSV are in a two-horse race with Ajax domestically in the Eredivisie, and Zoet is the clear starter in net for a team that’s only lost once in league play. But in the Champions League, for Zoet to hit double digits PSV will need to win at home against a superior opponent in Atletico, or have at least six to seven saves in a game PSV gives up zero or one goal. If you go with Zoet, you’re hoping that Atletico’s inconsistent attack has a day off.
Oblak has a tried and tested defense in front of him that’s built to keep their opponents off the scoresheet, and he’s coming off two straight shutouts. The only negative to me for this match is because of Atletico’s stifling defense, Oblak just doesn’t see a lot of shots on his goal in order to pile up saves. In 25 league games this season, Oblak has 13 goals allowed — pretty nice, right? In those 25 games, Oblak has just 47 saves. I’m no math major, but that’s less than two a game. However, PSV should get enough of an attack going to give Oblak more action than he’s used to, without the level of attack other goalkeeping options will face.
For defensive options from this one, you can either spend up on Atletico’s Juanfran ($4,000) or go lower for PSV’s Jetro Willems ($2,400) or Joshua Brenet ($2,600) along with Santiago Arias ($2,800). Any of PSV’s starting options will be under $3k, and those are few and far between on this slate when it comes to starting defenders. However, if you want WIllems, you’re need to give yourself enough space to pivot to Brenet or Arias if Willems does not get the start. Willems has assists in two straight league matches, and had 12 crosses last weekend in a win over Heracles in the Eredivisie. Atletico’s Juanfran has been a steady point producer this year and last for DFS players, but that salary is a tough one. Filipe Luis ($3,600) is almost just as expensive without the attacking skillset his teammate has. Luis’ value is very much tied into Atletico keeping a zero on their opponents’ side of the scoreboard. If you’re daring, Diego Godin ($3,800) is always an option because of his ability to score off headers from dead ball chances.
Koke ($5,800) is another mid-level midfield option that I really like from this slate that can be used in pretty much any type of lineup. He and Antoine Griezmann ($7,400) are the only Atletico attacking options I can suggest with any confidence, especially since Diego Simeone is likely to play a rather defensive, tight gameflow in this first leg. But Koke has set pieces, corners that provides a very solid floor while Griezmann is by far the team’s leading scorer (12 in La Liga, four in the Champions League). Otherwise, with Yannick Carrasco out hurt there is a real lack of other options that can offer value with a decent floor. I can’t see spending up for Fernando Torres ($5,700); if he was to get an unlikely start, Angel Correa ($4,500) is a decent play, but he’s a forward and it’s tough using an utility spot without some free kick responsibilities.
There isn’t a superstar in PSV’s team, and at the very least they’re priced as such. With team captain and lead striker Luuk de Jong suspended for this one, it looks like PSV lacks a guy that can hold the ball up and it’s all about speed, speed and speed in their front three. Luciano Narsingh ($4,500), Jurgen Locadia ($3,700) and Gaston Pereiero ($3,500) should make up PSV’s front three, though Maxime Lestienne ($4,200) could get the call in Pereiro’s place. Again, if you believe in PSV’s attack providing the opportunity to return value, keep enough cap space to pivot with. Crosses will be few and far between from the run of play, so if you’re going with any PSV forward you need them to score to return more than perhaps 2x value.
Andres Guarardo ($3,600) is a doubt with a hamstring injury; if he was to play, the Mexican midfielder has a decent floor because of free kicks and corners. Davy Propper ($4,100) is likely to take over those responsibilities if Guarardo does not go on Wednesday, and Propper hit double digits in three of six group stage matches for PSV. Marco van Ginkel ($2,600) should start in Guardardo’s absence, and at that price tag he only needs a handful of points to return value. Since joining on loan from Chelsea (after a loan to Stoke was cancelled), van Ginkel’s scored twice in Eredivisie play and is a talented player.