Champions League DFS Preview: Tuesday/Wednesday
The quarterfinal second legs for the Champions League begin on Tuesday with Manchester City facing PSG and Wolfsburg travelling to Real Madrid, and finish of Wednesday with Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich away to Benfica.
Here’s a breakdown of all four matches, and what I feel are the best options to build your roster from each.
Manchester City (2) vs. PSG (2), Tuesday
Yes, as I mentioned before, all four of these games are tricky to predict on the best of terms, and this one takes the cake in my mind of the four when it comes to game flow. On the surface, City should try and play defensively in order to protect its away goal advantage from the first leg. On the other hand, can you defend with any confidence when your starting central defense pairing will be a dinged up Nicolas Otamendi (ankle) and Eliaquim Mangala?
PSG will need to attack in order to advance, and they have the talent to do so. All of Zlatan Ibrahimovic ($8,200), Angel Di Maria ($8,000), and either Edinson Cavani ($6,100) or Lucas Moura ($5,500) are in play for your roster construction on this slate. With Blaise Matuidi suspended, it looks like we’ll likely have a relatively cheap group of PSG midfielders to choose from. Even if Marco Verratti ($4,700) is passed fit, you still have Adrien Rabiot ($3,900) and Thiago Motta ($3,300) to choose from, and if Verratti doesn’t go you might be able to go with the offensively talented Javier Pastore ($4,100), who has a calf injury of his own, or the dirt cheap Benjamin Stambouli ($2,900). As for defenders, I’m still riding Serge Aurier ($4,200) who despite having a relatively ineffective first leg both in real life and for DFS purposes had his price go up for this match. He remains the defender with the highest ceiling when you put actual goals out of the picture, and value options in defense will likely be non-existent in this slate, especially outside defenders.
I see multiple goals in play in this match, so City’s front four are just as much in play, even if City begins the match with ten men in their own half defending. Sergio Aguero ($7,500) will remain a relatively low-owned option because of his salary and the level of forwards on this slate, but he’s still the tip of City’s attacking spear. I like the midfield weapons around Aguero just as much, if not more. Kevin De Bruyne ($6,500) isn’t cheap, but he is much more in play than Di Maria and has the same ceiling as the Argentinean. I see Manuel Pellegrini going with both Fernando and Fernandinho as a pair of defensive midfielders in front of that…questionable…back four, so you are likely to have a narrow midfield of De Bruyne, David Silva ($5,500) and either Yaya Toure ($5,000) or Jesus Navas ($5,100). Toure is likely fit enough to start this match, and if he does he’ll be central with Silva and De Bruyne on each side. Navas provides a bit more width—if he does not start, this gives PSG’s fullbacks a bit more ability to go forward, and I do like Aurier against a combination of Silva and Clichy, for what it’s worth.
When it comes to keepers, I’ll be looking elsewhere than this one on both sides of the ball. Joe Hart ($3,800), despite the home start, has that defense in front of him and the ability to give up multiple goals. I still like Kevin Trapp ($3,700), even on the road—he laid his first DFS egg in the first leg but he should be really low owned and I think PSG get the win from this match. I can see Trapp around 10% ownership even with only eight options in goal, and stranger ways to a GPP win have taken place—like last week.
Real Madrid (0) vs. VfL Wolfsburg (2), Tuesday
So fading Cristiano Ronaldo ($10,200) finally worked last week, didn’t it? Ten points was not enough in the end for that price tag. With Madrid down two in this match, at home, the Merengues need to take this match by the throat and dominate Wolfsburg from the opening whistle. Ronaldo remains the best play on the slate when you put aside the salary, and his ceiling keeps him in play especially at home. You can fade Ronaldo if you want, but he still remains the best option to go off throughout all four matches.
Elsewhere from Madrid, Karim Benzema ($7,400) has been passed fit and Zinedine Zidane said the French forward will start against Wolfsburg alongside Ronaldo and likely Gareth Bale ($7,100). If Benzema does not go, you’ll likely have Jese ($3,700) or James Rodriguez ($6,200) in his place. Zidane is likely to start the same three of Toni Kroos ($4,700), Luka Modric ($4,000) and Casemiro ($3,300) in this match—but keep an eye out if James, Isco ($4,200) or Lucas Vazquez ($3,100) get the call.
Marcelo ($4,900) remains way too overpriced for use on this slate; the ceiling is still there, but are you willing to pay that much in order to include the Brazilian left back? Daniel Carvajal ($3,700) is better priced for use, and should be relatively well owned in a shallow defender pool. Keylor Navas ($4,700), like Trapp, had his first really poor Champions League showing. The price tag, as expected, is sky high despite last week’s result. On paper, Navas has the best chance of any keeper on this slate to get the win/clean sheet combo pack. If you can pay up, I would.
For Wolfsburg, in theory this match’s gameflow should favor a counterattacking side that will defend in numbers and try to use its speed and/or creativity to its advantage. Diego Benaglio ($3,300) ended up being a great play this week, and the Swiss keeper should remain really low owned on Tuesday. But if you play Benaglio, you’re expecting lightning to strike twice. In the same place, in less than a week. Buyer beware.
Ricardo Rodriguez ($3,800) scored last week from the penalty spot, and got 18 points from the Wolfsburg win. But put aside the goal and the clean sheet, and Rodriguez had no crosses. I’m fading him for that price tag, and would rather guys like Carvajal or others from this slate. Otherwise, you have the low priced contingent of Julian Draxler ($5,200), Andre Schurrle ($4,700), Vieirinha ($3,800), Bruno Henrique ($3,600), Maximilian Arnold ($3,400) and Joshua Guilavogui ($3,000).
Henrique seems to be on the surface the best play of the bunch—Guilavogui will likely be chained to the back four as one of a pair of defensive midfielders for Wolfsburg, while Vieirinha will be again at right back in place of Christian Trasch. If Trasch did start at right back and Vieirinha plays higher in the formation in place of Arnold or Luiz Gustavo, his use is a bit more acceptable. But Henrique has the speed and ability to be very useful on the counter. Schurrle will be the striker in Wolfsburg’s formation and is very affordable, but if the German international doesn’t score his floor will absolutely kill you in the end.
Benfica (0) vs. Bayern Munich (1), Wednesday
Benfica was really effective in frustrating Bayern on the road in the first leg, despite giving up a second minute goal to Arturo Vidal. They host Bayern on Wednesday without Julio Cesar (thigh) and striker Jonas (suspension), while Bayern visit with defensive questions still unanswered because of some injuries. Will Pep shuffle the deck in the back, using Javi Martinez and Joshua Kimmich centrally, meaning David Alaba ($4,400) gets used in a more DFS friendly left back role? Juan Bernat ($3,700) might be Pep’s play at left back, opposite Philipp Lahm on the right.
Or Pep could go three in the back (Alaba/Javi/Kimmich), killing Alaba’s usefulness for the most part, Bernat would be on the bench, and Lahm would be in a defensive midfield role alongside first leg goalscorer Vidal ($5,100). All of this, of course, effects any use of Manuel Neuer ($4,500), on the road, second highest cost at goalkeeper on the slate. Neuer has his pros for using the Bayern keeper, especially with the absence of Jonas and possibly Nicolas Gaitan
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It looks like Kingsley Coman will be fit enough to be included in the squad on Wednesday, but it’s hard to see Guardiola using him from the beginning because of fitness. So you’re likely to have to choose from Franck Ribery ($6,800) on one wing and Douglas Costa ($7,700) on the other, with Thiago Alcantara ($5,200) and Vidal centrally, Thomas Muller ($7,800) floating in space between attacking and midfield and Robert Lewandowski ($8,000) up top. Plus, you’ll have Mario Gotze ($5,900) alongside Coman as an outside choice from the opening whistle.
Alcantara’s salary has risen to where he won’t be a dead certain starter in a chalk lineup; he’s more affordable than his teammates still, but the floor and the ceiling are lower than say, Ribery.All should be relatively low owned, especially Muller and Lewandowski.
For the hosts, without Jonas, let’s lead with this: Gaitan is carrying a thigh injury and did not train on Tuesday according to reports from Portugal. Without Jonas and Gaitan in the lineup, it’s very hard to see where the offense will be generated from for the hosts. Kostas Mitroglou ($4,000) and likely Raul Jimenez ($3,600) will be the starting strike partnership in Jonas’ absence, although there’s a slim chance Gaitan could be used in place of Jimenez. Pizzi ($3,900) should be on one wing with or without Gaitan, and if Gaitan does not go, look at Goncalo Guedes ($3,500) as a possible low owned, strong play. Guedes is a talented player and shouldn’t be overlooked if Gaitan cannot play.
Otherwise, the Benfica options are pretty tough to support. Andre Almeida ($2,800) is likely to remain at right back, limiting his upside greatly; the central midfield options should be defending a great deal. Eliseu ($3,100) is relatively inexpensive, but that floor is awfully low. Lastly, Ederson Moraes ($3,200) is the cheapest starting goalkeeper on the slate, at home—but if Bayern’s on point, negative points could be in play. Using Ederson at home at that price tag isn’t out of question, but beware of the worst case scenario.
Atletico Madrid (1) vs. Barcelona (2), Wednesday
Last, we have Barca heading to the Vicente Calderon have Atletico in the all-Spanish bar fight—which the first leg specially was. Atletico had the lead through Fernando Torres, only to see him sent off in the first half and Barca chipped away and finally got two second-half goals from Luis Suarez ($9.000) to take the advantage going into this second leg. But in the meantime, Barca lost in league play this past weekend at Real Sociedad; Suarez, Jordi Alba, Ivan Ratikic and Andres Iniesta all did not start.
Barca will have its A team starting in this one, starting with Marc-Andre Stegen ($4,000) in goal. I really don’t like using Stegen in this match; I’d rather go up to Navas or use Trapp than go with ter Stegen in this situation. He’s not likely to see a lot of action as Atletico play tight to the vest, pressing Barca while keeping men behind the ball. I’ll avoid Alba ($4,200) and Dani Alves ($4,600) in this same situation, as the pair of outside backs likely won’t see a lot of time going forward. The midfield for Barca is DFS unfriendly; perhaps you can go with Iniesta ($4,000) or Rakitic ($4,600) as a contrarian option in your fourth or fifth or 12th lineup, but they’re definitely not “cash” plays.
Then, the top billing trio—that Leo Messi ($9.700) fellow flanked by Suarez and Neymar ($8,800). Messi is relatively ice cold, if it can be believed. He hasn’t scored in his last four, and Messi has been used recently more centrally and deeper by Luis Enrique in Barcelona’s formation than earlier in the season. Messi is still seeing a lot of the ball at his feet, but it’s farther away from the opposition’s box on average. Suarez is now the deadshot finisher of the crew, and Neymar isn’t in form as well. It can be argued that Suarez is the best play of the trio, but the combination of his poor form paired with that salary could see Messi’s ownership rate lower than normal.
For Atletico, we have several “tournament” plays at home—wished this game was on Tuesday so we knew going into things who DIego Simeone would start with all four matches at your use. I really do like Jan Oblak ($3,600), especially at that price combined with a home start and that Atletico defense in front of him. If the home side can keep their heads and not get someone sent off, there’s a decent chance Atletico could get a clean sheet or even a win from this match. It’s far from a certainty, especially if the top shelf Barca show up in this one. But Atletico are far from pushovers. Defenders Juanfran ($4,000) and Filipe Luis ($3,800) are in play, especially at hundreds less than Alba and Alves. Lucas Hernandez ($2,000) is the clear punt play at defense on this slate.
Koke ($5,500) is the headline play in midfield; you have the playmaker paired with set piece duties in one. Yannick Carrasco ($4,400) is a likely starter, either alongside Antoine Griezmann ($6,500) up top or on the wing. Between Koke and Carrasco, the latter will be lower-owned because of Carrasco’s price tag. Carrasco should be the Thiago/Casemiro lower priced, highly owned midfielder on this slate. Angel Correa ($4,100) could start alongside Griezmann instead of Carrasco; as I said earlier, wish we knew the starting lineup before Tuesday’s kickoffs.