Champions League Preview: Wednesday
Tuesday’s slate was a blast, wasn’t it? That many goals was a stastical freak show, and Wednesday should see things even out a bit—then again, who knows?
The absence of any Russia-based games means you have eight matches to choose from. Without any delay, let’s get to it.
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
The biggest two names on Wednesday night’s schedule face off at Anfield; and let’s face it, Liverpool are really struggling coming into this one. Despite winning a thriller at Loftus Road this weekend against QPR, Liverpool come into this match with an ice cold central forward in Mario Balotelli, a rapidly worsening defense and an opponent that is better than them in every position.
Madrid traveled to England without Gareth Bale and Sergio Ramos, both out due to injury. But otherwise, each Madrid starter is worth thinking about when creating a lineup. I think there are better options in goal than Iker Casillas ($4,000), but he is worth considering—it’s just the ceiling is higher in other places. Marcelo ($5,100) is expensive, but his floor is pretty high and he’ll definitely get into the attack. A more affordable option is Dani Carvajal ($3,600).
With Bale’s absence, there is going to be one relative value play in Madrid’s midfield. It’s likely to be Isco ($4,800); at that price tag, he’s able to be used in any number of lineups. Then you have Toni Kroos ($6,500) and Luka Modric ($6,400); both don’t have a huge ceiling, but their price tags can give you more of a Merengue presence in your lineup. And you can pay up for James Rodriguez ($9,100), no slouch there.
At forward, you have the equivalent of Tuesday’s Neymar/Messi question with Cristiano Ronaldo ($13,100) and Karim Benzema ($10,500). Both can be used in cash or GPP games; they can be used together, but you’ll have to go bargain shopping in most spots to fill up your squad. Liverpool will look to frustrate Madrid going forward, putting a lot of pressure on the ball and stay back in numbers. I’m not saying to fade either, but if you choose one or both, the ability to make mistakes with other choices is lessened.
Even the magical capabilities that Anfield seems to give Liverpool on certain European nights can’t see me suggest many options from the home side. Madrid’s attack can’t see me touch Simon Mignolet ($3,800) with a figurative ten foot pole; outside backs like Alberto Moreno ($3,200) and Javi Manquillo ($2,900) have a little more value but probably won’t see a lot of opportunities going forward.
Raheem Sterling ($8,300) is worth a shot in a GPP, especially if Balotelli sits and Sterling is given a free role up top in Liverpool’s attack. Otherwise, there’s not much there when it comes to value and opportunity. Philippe Coutinho ($3,700)? GPP fodder, and only if you are spending in other places.
Anderlecht vs. Arsenal
The Gunners travel to Belgium, and they’ll be starting third-string keeper Emiliano (Damian) Martinez ($3,000) due to suspension and injury. You’ll save salary if you go with him, but with the number of injuries Arsenal carries into this match it is tough to give a definitive thumbs-up to choose Martinez. Some will stack Martinez with Kieran Gibbs ($4,100) and Hector Bellerin ($3,700), but I just don’t see Arsenal getting a clean sheet against Anderlecht. The visitors are favorites, so you may get the win bonus, perhaps a one goal against marker and a couple of saves. Think there are better options on the slate than this trip.
This is similar to this weekend; avoid the backline, roster the midfield and attackers. Anyone from Santi Cazorla ($6,100), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ($6,500), Alexis Sanchez ($9,500) and Danny Welbeck ($9,800). Even Theo Walcott ($8,700) might be a contarian play if he starts or is even used off the bench, but I can’t see using him because of his lack of game time coming off injury.
As for Anderlecht, I can’t see using anyone in a cash game, but there is value in GPP circumstances for forward Alek Mitrovic ($6,500) and midfielders Dennis Praet ($5,500) and Andy Najar ($5,900). Arsenal is likely to give up at least one goal; I just can’t say with confidence where it will come from. This matchup is a lot like Arsenal’s midweek matchup versus Hull City.
Ludogorets vs. Basel
There’s a lot of unknowns heading into this one, but there also is a lot of value. Basel’s Marco Streller ($6,400) scored the winner against Liverpool earlier this month; he could be an option as a flex. Same with Serey Die ($5,100), Ahmed Hamoudi ($4,900) or Mohamed Elneny ($4,800) in midfield. Keeper Tomas Vaclik ($3,700) is a decent mid-level option in net. Any of the aforementioned players for Basel will be low owned.
Ludogorets are slight underdog at home. Vlad Stoyanov ($3,700) is perhaps a better chance than Vaclik to bring home a clean sheet because Ludogorets are at home, but Basel are the better team overall. Marcelinho ($4,200) is their best midfield option in an attacking role, while Roman Bezjak ($3,000), if he starts, is the likely lone striker up top. If you pay up in other spots, Bezjak can be your flex hit and hope option.
Atletico Madrid vs. Malmo
Atletico is a huge favorite at home in this one; it’s options at all positions are a mixture of value and potential. Keeper Moya ($4,700) is the most expensive option in the slate, and might not see a lot of action. So it’s a lot of hope that Atletico dominate play, win and keep a clean sheet. I just think there are better options.
If you choose to go that route, and wish to stack outside backs Juanfran ($4,700) and Cristian Ansaldi ($3,700), you’ll be unlikely to spend up at other positions from Real Madrid/Arsenal/Juventus. However, it could end up being akin to using a Chelsea stack on Tuesday. I’m more interested in using options from Atletico’s midfield. See who starts in this one—on the surface, Koke ($6,100), Arda Turan ($6,000), Raul Garcia ($5,000), Alessandro Cerci and Saul Niguez ($3,000) all could have strong days if Diego Simeone chooses them. Add Mario Mandzukic ($8,400) into the mix, and Atletico could be highly profitable. One more name, if he starts— Antoine Griezmann ($5,900), who’s a decent GPP option.
As for the visitors, Markus Rosenberg ($6,100) is pretty cheap for a lone striker and if Malmo scores, it’s likely to be him. But the Swede isn’t likely to get a lot of chances, and he will see a lot of two excellent La Liga defenders in Miranda and Diego Godin. Apart from that, Malmo keeper Robin Olsen ($3,200) made people a lot of money last time around, but he’d have to stand on his head again.
Monaco vs. Benfica
Perhaps the most unremarkable of all the games on Wednesday, this one has a real lack of attractive options. It’s odd that perhaps Monaco keeper Danijel Subasic ($3,600) is perhaps the first thing that catches your attention; the hosts are a slim favorite, and Benfica’s attack has struggled mightily so far this season, at least when it comes to Europe. Subasic and defenders Layvin Kurawa ($3,400) and Fabinho ($3,000) is a pretty affordable stack if you’re feeling frisky and contrarian.
Jose Moutinho ($6,600) is Benfica’s distributor and midfield general, but I just can’t see using him—unless he scores or assists, you won’t see the secondary point accumulators from the Portuguese player. Dimitar Berbatov is out, so Lacina Traore ($6,300) will start in his place. He’s a GPP option only, and you’ll need him to boom, not bust, to cash out.
For Benfica, Lima ($5,900) needs to convert chances like he does domestically in Primeria Liga. Benfica’s best option overall is midfielder Eduardo Salvi ($6,500), who has tallied 17 and 13 points in the team’s first two European matches.
Galatasaray vs. Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund are having the most uneven season perhaps of any Champions League entrant. They’re struggling mightily in domestic play in the Bundesliga (14th place), but have won two out of two in Europe and are pretty decent favorites in Turkey. Galatasaray are incredibly inconsistent on their own; they imploded at Arsenal last matchday but are coming off a huge home win in league play over the weekend.
I can only suggest midfield and attacking options in this one with any real confidence, aside from one player—Dortmund’s Lukasz Pisczek ($2,000). Pair the right back with midfielder Henrik Mkhitaryan ($3,000), and you have a lot of salary to play elsewhere. Both will be heavily owned.
I wouldn’t use Kevin Grosskreutz on Wednesday, because he’ll be used at left back and won’t likely see a lot of time in the attack. Midlevel options like Wesley Sneijder and Shinji Kagawa are solid options, but they need to score in order to hit their ceiling. If you choose anyone from that tier in this one, go with Patrick Aubameyang ($6,800) if he starts—and that would be in the place of Mkhitaryan.
At forward, Gala’s Burak Yilmaz ($6,300) will be an underowned option that could pay high dividends if the hosts roll. For Dortmund, Adrian Ramos ($6,500) might start over Ciro Immobile ($6,900) —and there’s a chance the starter gets pulled for the substitute in the second half. I can’t see both ending the game together.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Zenit St. Petersburg
It will be very interesting to see how Leverkusen’s percentage owned will come out in the wash after Wednesday’s games begin. While it’s purely a GPP play, it can be argued that a Leverkusen stack could bring the most value at the end of the day. The front attacking four of Hakan Calhanoglu ($5,800), Karim Bellarabi ($5,800), Heung-Min Son ($6,000) and Stefan Kiessling ($7,000) in some combination could win someone a decent amount of money.
Otherwise, the rest of the starting lineups I can’t give a stamp of approval to. Hulk ($8,000) is incredibly talented and might be a GPP option, but I’d rather have Kiessling or one of Dortmund’s attackers instead. Zenit keeper Yury Lodygin has returned a pretty healthy point total in his last two games, but I’ll be fading him because of the matchup.
Olympiacos vs. Juventus
This should be a pretty cagey, defensive affair. I can’t see spending up on Gianluigi Buffon ($4,500) despite being a road favorite, but if you want to go with a known quantity you can depend on the Italian. His opposite Roberto ($3,300) will have some takers being at home, but I’d avoid the Olympiacos keeper.
There are some outside backs to use from this one; Stephane Lichtsteiner ($3,700), Patrice Evra ($3,900) and Arthur Masuaku ($3,200) all can rack up points from crosses. Clean sheet bonuses or assists would be icing on the cake. In midfield, you have options like Paul Pogba and Andrea Pirlo, but I’d rather spend mid-level in other games. Contrarian options come from the hosts, like Ibrahim Afellay ($4,600) and Pajtim Kasami ($5,700).
Want a couple of minimum plays? If he starts, Juve’s Kingsley Coman ($3,000) could get a role alongside Carlos Tevez ($7,800). Coman or Alvaro Morata ($5,200) should get the start with Fernando Llorente out. A more certain option is Konstantinos Mitroglou ($3,000); the Olympiacos striker will be heavily used in lineups that spend up on guys like Ronaldo/etc.