Champions League Preview: Wednesday
This will be a quick (ha!) and dirty look at Wednesday’s slate, littered with some home favorites (PSG, Bayern) mixed liberally with road favorites (Chelsea, Barcelona), the belles of the ball from last time around (Shakhtar) and some nice values across the board from other clubs.
Athletic Bilbao vs. Porto
At home, Bilbao is dead last in their group, facing first place Porto needing a win in the worst of ways. Porto is the slightest of road favorites, and so they should be despite the circumstances needed from both teams. They’re the better side, and it’s hard not to focus on Porto’s talented lineup for DFS targets.
I can’t suggest either keeper in this one as usable with any real strength behind it; if he starts, Bilbao right back Iraola is the rare $2k minimum defender you can slot in and use, but he definitely does not have the high floor/high ceiling Lucasz Piszczek had yesterday. In the midfield, you have two strong Porto plays in Yacine Brahimi ($8,000) and Hector Herrera ($6,500), both of which have been pretty solid so far in the Champions League. The floor is still there, but Bilbao is a pretty solid team defensively so the high ceiling might not be there, especially on the road. Bilbao has minimum punt options, if each starts, in Unai Lopez, De Marcos and Susaeta. They’re GPP plays, but if you’re going to spend up elsewhere, you’ll have to reach for a low end midfielder. Yesterday, several $3k midfield options worked out well.
At forward, Aduriz is likely to be out due to a hamstring injury for Bilbao— Guillermo ($5,000) is set to be his replacement, and for a minimum play at flex Ibai is an option if he starts as a withdrawn attacker right behind Guillermo in Bilbao’s formation. It’ll likely be either Ibai or Marcos in the lineup.
For Porto, the options in attack are better known. Jackson Martinez ($8,100) will be the lead dog, with Cristian Tello ($5,200) and Juan Quintero ($4,800) on his wings. There is a chance Brahimi plays a more advanced role if Quintero does not start; if that is the case, Brahimi’s worth just gets that much stronger.
Sporting Lisbon vs. Schalke
Schalke come into this one pretty banged up; Julian Draxler and others are out with injuries. Again, this is one to avoid when it comes to the goalkeepers as each side should find the net in a relatively hope game. Sporting are decent home favorites and if you’re looking to save on defenders, both outside backs for Sporting may be minimum plays. Both Cedric and Jonathan Silva are in play, but Cedric is the better of the two if you’re picking from the pair. Both of Schalke’s outside backs (Christian Fuchs and Atsuto Uchida) have seen their salaries rise steadily, and the ceiling just isn’t there in order to spend on mid-level options like them where there are better ways to go.
There are a few options in midfield for both teams, but it’s hard to determine who might pay off better in the bunch. Adrien Silva ($5,600) scored twice for Lisbon in Schalke two weeks ago, but it’s hard to see him doing that again and his secondary point potential from crosses and the like just is not there. Kevin Prince Boateng ($6,800) or Max Meyer ($4,800) is likely to be in a central role in Schalke’s midfield, but each would be a contrarian play in GPPs only. The best of the bunch looks to be Schalke’s Chinedu Obasi ($5,200), who in the absence of Draxler should see opportunities to go forward.
Up top, you have proven point getters in Klaas-Jan Huntelaar ($8,100) and Nani ($7,300). Out of those two, I’d rather have Nani this evening. Huntelaar has scored in each Champions League game so far this season, but without some of his midfield to supply his chances the Dutch international could have a relatively quiet night. Nani has explosive GPP potential this evening, at home, Lisbon needing to win; he’ll look to take the game and Sporting on his shoulders. It could turn out very well, or be a resounding failure. In DFS, he has a decent ceiling if only based on the amount of shots taken Nani will attempt. Look out for minimum play Andre Carillo, who will play on the other wing for Sporting and gives everyone another low salaried option to fill in the cracks with.
Paris Saint Germain vs. APOEL
PSG struggled mightily to win at APOEL two weeks ago, and the French money men need to keep one step ahead of Barcelona in their group to avoid second place and some of Europe’s best clubs in the knockout stages. Zlatan Ibrahimović is still out with a heel injury, and midfield dynamo Marco Verrati is out as well.
PSG are huge favorites, and if you want Salvatore Sirigu ($5,100) you’ll have to pay up heavily in relative terms. Sirigu is set for a win and likely a clean sheet bonus from this one, so if you want to play it safe, roster him. However, he’s the most expensive projected starter in goal on the night and you have options to spend down a bit. PSG’s outside backs are also on the high end of the salary spectrum, with Gregory van der Wiel ($4,400) and Maxwell ($4,300) solid choices. But there’s an outside chance Serge Aurier ($3,300) may start in the place of van der Wiel; if he does so, he should be a choice in all formats. Aurier loves to go forward and play a part in attack, and that lower salary is very accessible.
In midfield, Lucas Moura ($6,000) is a strong play because of his mid-level salary, his opponent, and the role he’ll play on the wing for PSG. Otherwise, PSG’s other midfielders (Javier Pastore, Blaise Matuidi and Thiago Motta) all would need a goal to earn their value at their salaries ($5,800 to $7,100), and the floor is low if they do not. At forward, you have Edinson Cavani ($8,800)—he got the winner against APOEL and has perhaps the best matchup of any single striker on the night when it comes to the opponent and his salary as part of the whole. He’s a solid play in all formats, but if you pair him with another high end forward you will have to go value elsewhere.
APOEL is a non-factor in this matchup on an individual basis.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. BATE Borisov
Ah, back to the aforementioned belles. Shakhtar opened up not just one can, but seven, at BATE in a lop-sided win. I can’t see another seven taking place, but the Ukrainian side pretty much can sew up a spot in the knockout round with a win and look towards placing first in their group against Porto in mid-December.
All the names you may remember that won you money a couple of weeks ago should start and be heavily owned. DK has raised the prices on Shakhtar options across the board, but they’re still easily rosterable. In goal, Shakhtar’s Andriy Pyatov ($4,200) should be heavily owned because of his mid-range salary that is several hundred less than the big names on his slate with just as much chance to bring a win/clean sheet combo home at the end of the night. Pyatov should have the highest ownership numbers on the night; if not, it’s just a case of ignorance in choosing names people know better.
Easily stackable with Pyatov are outside backs Darijo Srna ($4,000) and Vyacheslav Shevchuk ($3,200) or Marcio Azevedo ($3,300). Again, go with the lower priced option if you choose to go with one instead of both. In midfield, the trio of Alex Teixeira ($5,600), Taison ($5,600) and Douglas Costa ($5,500) are criminally underpriced based on their output against BATE two weeks ago combined with another shot at the same time—but this time, at home! Again, it’s hard to see Shakhtar hang five, six or seven again if only because BATE will want to save face. But still, the ceiling is really high for all three. Teixeira is the best bet of the three because of his central role, with Costa having the highest ceiling.
At striker, you have Luiz Adriano ($7,900). He won’t have five goals, but it’s hard to see him go scoreless this evening. Get Adriano in your lineup if you can. It’s hard to avoid using him, especially at that salary.
BATE is a non-factor in this matchup on an individual basis.
Bayern Munich vs. Roma
It’s really hard to see Roma getting stomped again like they did at home two weeks ago by Bayern, but there is the real possibility Bayern could run riot—again. Roma’s backline is torn up with injuries, with midfielder Alessandro Fiorenzi thrown into the right back role of backup Vasilis Torosidis cannot go (first choice Maicon is already ruled out). The rest of the Roma defense should be the same group that gave up seven at home. It’s a grease fire in the making.
Bayern is a huge favorite at home, despite Roma being second place in Serie A—the German champs are that good. If you want any of the Bavarians in your lineup, you’ll rightfully have to spend up for them. Manuel Neuer ($5,000) is a chalk play, but the German stopper might be a somewhat contrarian option only due to the fact Roma has enough ability to run a clean sheet like they did last time around. Sirigu is just $100 more, with others to come in the preview at the same price point or just a bit cheaper. You can’t go wrong taking Neuer, however. He’s a good GPP option.
DK still has Philipp Lahm ($5,200) classified as a defender, so any goals allowed bonuses is the icing on the cake for using the defensive midfielder. Want a comparable option for $1,500 less? Use Juan Bernat ($3,700), who plays left-sided midfield role opposite Lahm. Almost any Bayern player is rosterable, to be honest. Defenders David Alaba ($4,400), Jerome Boateng ($4,000) and Mehdi Benatia ($3,800) are all solid options who could get clean sheet bonuses—but the upside isn’t there without a goal to their names.
Pep Guardiola has to likely sit someone from the following: Arjen Robben ($9,700), Franck Ribery ($9,000), Mario Gotze ($8,600), Thomas Muller ($10,400) and Robert Lewandowski ($10,000). Any of the five, if they start, are usable in all formats. Even as a substitute they could get 10-20 points if Bayern are running riot. Ribery had 17 points in 22 minutes of play against Roma last time around.
Roma’s a good team, do not get me wrong. It’s just a question of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. It’ll be playing cagey for them…damage control is an honest way to put it. Guys like Miralem Pjanic, Gervinho, and Francesco Totti et al are options next time around.
Manchester City vs. CSKA Moscow
First of all—you will notice that there are no CSKA options to choose from on Wednesday, even if you wanted to push that button. They seemingly have not been put into the player pool by DK because in prior match days they were home and were not on gameday slates. So putting that aside…
City simply has to win, and win big, in this one. A win paired with a likely Roma loss puts them behind the wheel for their group’s second qualifying spot behind Bayern. City still have to host Bayern and go to Roma, so three points in this game is desperately needed.
The blue side of Manchester are heavy favorites in this one. Joe Hart ($4,900) is in the same tier as Neuer and others; he should take the win bonus home with him, but the question is whether City will keep a clean sheet. They should, but there’s a good chance City will give up one on Wednesday in a lop-sided home win. It’s very similar to Tuesday night’s options; you have to choose the right option from several positive looking choices.
Pablo Zabaleta ($4,000) has struggled a bit as of late; as a constant in City’s lineup, he might be getting tired a bit. If you choose a City defender, a better way to go is Gael Clichy ($3,100) at a lower price than Zabaleta. The rest of City’s starting 11 are for GPP use only except striker Sergio Aguero ($13,000). Aguero will likely not be owned percentage wise like the Bayern or Barcelona options at forward; he and Cavani should be on that tier below. At that salary, it’s tough to justify bringing Aguero on unless you get multiple goals. I’d rather spend on lesser salaried choices like Muller, Robben, etc.
It looks like Stevan Jovetic ($6,100) will continue in the lineup alongside Aguero; he and Yaya Toure ($6,400) could have a big night but their performances this season have not indicated tonight could be their night.
Maribor vs. Chelsea
As per usual, it’s difficult to start into Chelsea without saying the words Jose Mourinho. Chelsea’s manager has complained in the last 24 hours about how Liverpool gets an additional night of recuperation before the two teams play in the Premiership this weekend, and how Liverpool was wrong to rest/bench so many players in Europe on Tuesday.
Strangely enough, Mourinho to a certain degree will do the same thing at Maribor. They’re overwhelming road favorites in this one, so look at Chelsea’s starting lineup when announced to try and find some value in the mix. It looks like Petr Cech ($5,000) will start in goal, and there’s no step down salary wise to give you any relief. However, I’d rather book using Cech than Hart or even Neuer in cash game lineups. It’s all in the opponent, and Maribor is the worst in that potential mix. Chelsea is strong defensively, even if some changes are made. It looks like Cesar Azpilicueta ($3.900) and Felipe Luis ($3,800) will get the call at outside back for Chelsea, and the pair is relatively affordable in the overall market.
If they start, Eden Hazard ($10,500) and Cesc Fabregas ($9,200) are in the mix but I’d choose the cheaper options for Bayern or Brahimi myself. More interesting to me are the mid-level cost plays that Oscar ($7,500) and Andre Schurrle ($7,200) provide for you to spend up elsewhere. At forward, either Mourinho will throw Diego Costa ($12,700) out against the poor Maribor defense or rest the Spaniard ahead of the Liverpool game and start Didier Drogba ($7,000). If it’s the latter, Drogba is an interesting option at a relatively low cost. If Costa does play, you’re choosing him instead of the other big names.
Ajax vs. Barcelona
Lastly, Barcelona visits Amsterdam to take on an Ajax side they beat 3-1 in the Nou Camp two weeks ago. Let’s start with the forwards first: it’s hard to fade Barcelona as a whole in this one, despite their collective high salaries for use and being on the road. You have Lionel Messi ($13,600), likely to be the highest owned individual on the day despite that salary. You have Neymar ($12,100), cheaper than Messi but the latter has a higher ceiling because of his ability to play provider as well as scorer. And lastly, you have Luis Suarez ($11,900), who played four seasons for Ajax before moving to Liverpool (and then, Barca). So you have that homecoming narrative if you want.
It’s tough to justify fading them as a whole, but let me argue you can put together a much more balanced and just as explosive lineup without a single Barca player because of the salaries involved. To justify Messi’s salary, you need multiple goals and/or assists. Messi has scored 17, 17 and 24 points so far, and his salary has only risen. Put that against, say, Muller at $3,200 less. Muller has 12, 22 and 19. The certainty is there if you choose Messi, even Neymar. But if you go that route, you need to hit dead on the rest of your roster to score a GPP win, and even in cash games you may fall prey to others than have multiple goalscorers to your Messi and an underperforming rest of the squad.
The rest of the options for Barcelona are ones I would not choose for my lineups. The collective ceilings are low, and the floor aside from maybe Dani Alves ($5,200) are low. Marc-Andre Ter Stegen ($4,900) should be in net; are you really going to use him instead of Neuer, or Cech, or someone else thinking Stegen has a better chance of a win/clean sheet bonus pack?
Barcelona’s midfield are providers for the front three, and their ability to put up double digits are based on getting a goal instead of one of the forwards. The odds are not in your favor there.
Ajax? In a GPP, you can use one of their front three for relative salary relief. Lucas Andersen ($3,200) if he starts is a good option, as is Anwar El Ghazi ($4,500). Lasse Schone ($5,700) is a bit pricier, but Kolbeinn Sigthorsson ($5,000) has done little so far in Europe to justify his inclusion in your lineup except for the most contrarian of GPP plays.