Champions League Preview: Wednesday
Seven games on the Champions League slate for DK on Wednesday, excluding Fun Time in Russia between Zenit St. Petersburg and Benfica. It might at first glance be not as sexy as yesterday’s games, but there are some interesting matchups that could go either way combined with one big favorite on the road.
Ludogorets vs. Liverpool
This is a really interesting match due to the fact Liverpool have been so poor of late, and even though they’re road favorites over Bulgaria’s finest all the pressure is on them. Real Madrid is through in this group, and they visit Basel today needing nothing and could rest some players. Liverpool needs a win and for Madrid to rout Basel in order to make goal differential a little more equal between Basel and Liverpool. A draw for Basel in their last match of the group at Anfield could see them go through.
For Liverpool, you can go with Simon Mignolet ($4,700) at a pretty good price tag, but with a road game and poor form as of late I’m willing to go elsewhere. For a really contrarian GPP play, I’d suggest Ludo’s Vladislav Stoyanov ($3,400) at keeper—he’ll see some action, and while a clean sheet might not be in the odds Ludogorets will give Liverpool a rough ride. Liverpool’s outside back tandem of Javier Manquillo ($2,900) and Alberto Moreno ($3,200) is a pretty affordable way to go, but the ceiling is limited. Jordan Minev ($3,200) has a nice average, but it was thrown off a bit after Minev scored last matchday.
Ludo’s Marcelinho ($5,300) is a pretty interesting play due to the fact he is set to start up top, but on DK he’s classified at his normal role in midfield. Raheem Sterling ($8,200) has seen his point output dip right in time with Liverpool’s poor play, but the matchup is a decent way to go—if Liverpool is to thrive, they need Sterling to have a big day. Adam Lallana ($5,400) or Phillipe Coutinho ($3,700) should start opposite Sterling, and are GPP plays only. At forward, Rickie Lambert ($5,000) is a tricky play—like this past weekend in the Premiership, his value is tied to goals scored. If Lambert doesn’t find the back of the net you’ll be likely dead in the water.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Monaco
This is a really tricky matchup—you have the DFS friendly Bayer side with its relatively affordable midfield and attacking core versus Monaco’s defensive stance, especially on the road. Bayer will clinch a spot with a win or draw in the knockout stages and are a strong home favorite. I’m avoiding both keepers—Monaco’s Danijel Subasic ($3,300) has been really solid but this match doesn’t suit a clean sheet for the visitors. He’s usable in GPPs only. Bayer’s Brend Leno ($4,800) is more usable in cash games but you may want to spend up or go lower to save salary.
Monaco’s left back Layvin Kurwaza is out, so Elderson Echiejile ($2,600) takes his place across from Fabinho ($3,300). Monaco’s wingbacks, like Subasic, have been pretty consistent but this might be the wrong day to use them—especially if they play for a draw from the start. I’ll be considering the front four for Bayer for use in all lineups — Hakan Calhanoglu ($6,700), Karim Bellarabi ($7,200), Heung-Min Son ($7,800) and Stefan Kiessling ($6,800) could have big days if they can take advantage of Monaco’s likely defensive posture. All but Calhanoglu scored in league play this weekend, and that was important specifically for Kiessling who was in a funk lately. Calhanoglu is the best bet for cash games, while Son and Kiessling are more boom or bust options.
Monaco’s Yannick Ferriera-Carrasco ($4,300) is an interesting play because of his salary, especially if you want to spend elsewhere. I can’t even suggest using Dimitar Berbatov ($6,800) even in GPPs; the Monaco striker will be on an island and won’t see many chances to influence the result.
Arsenal vs. Borussia Dortmund
Both teams are likely to advance from their group, regardless of what happens in this match. A draw would make Arsenal official, joining Dortmund—only Anderlecht can catch Arsenal with two straight wins. This game could be really tight, with both teams not wanting to risk anything—or it can be open, especially if Dortmund decide they want to just attack, attack, attack an Arsenal team that is really wobbly in the back especially on the counterattack. Dortmund’s speed is tailor made to do so.
Going with a keeper from this match is a tricky way to go. Both Roman Weidenfeller ($4,200) and Damian Martinez ($4,000) are affordable, but I can’t see a clean sheet coming for either. It finally happened for Lukasz Piszczek ($4,000) at DK — his price doubled from the minimum the right back had been since the start of the group stages. Even at that price tag, Piszczek is worth rostering if you’re not skimping in the back. He’s a better option than Arsenal’s pair of Kieran Gibbs ($4,200) and Calum Chambers ($4,100).
Options in midfield from this match are all in yellow and black. If he starts, Ilkay Gundogan ($3,000) should be highly owned as a minimum play. Sebastian Kehl is at the same price, but Gundogan is more likely to be involved going forward than Kehl. Henrikh Mkhitarayan ($5,800) has a decent ceiling, but is not in the best form as of late. Shinji Kagawa ($7,600) isn’t a natural scorer and had a poor game this past weekend—I’d rather go elsewhere. The best play is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($8,700), but that salary has hit the limit where you need about 20 or so points in order to justify your usage because that’s money in a midfield spot you won’t be able to spend at forward or your flex.
A better bet when you factor in salary and output is whoever starts up top for Dortmund. Ciro Immobile ($6,900) is slated to get the call, but Adrian Ramos ($5,700) may as well. There’s even a chance Aubameyang does, and if that is the case his value goes much higher. With Marco Reus out, someone’s going to get chances in this match for Dortmund. As for Arsenal’s top two, I won’t touch Danny Welbeck ($10,400). He’s wasteful with the chances given to him by his teammates, and at that salary it’s tough to justify using Welbeck. I’d rather go with Karim Benzema or lower with options from Bayer, Dortmund, or other games. If you’re going Arsenal, it’s the relative safety of Alexis Sanchez ($11,200). The floor is high for Sanchez; however, for that salary, you need a goal from Sanchez.
Malmo vs. Juventus
This is a must win for Juventus on the road. A win paired with Atletico Madrid winning the other group game leaves advancement in the Italians collective hands. Juve are huge road favorites.
I’ll be going elsewhere than Gigi Buffon ($5,100); there are better options against lesser opponents if you’re spending up at keeper. Perhaps one of the slate’s best options at defense is Stephane Liechtensteiner ($3,500), a combination of opportunity, matchup, salary and past point production. Left back Simone Padoin is a midfielder at DK and thus loses most of his upside (no goals allowed bonus). Juve’s midfield options have the ability to get points for you only if they score. Better in real life than DFS, the foursome of Arturo Vidal ($6,700), Andrea Pirlo ($6,600), Claudio Marchisio ($5,600) and Paul Pogba ($5,300) are more useable in GPP formats because all can score, but won’t rack up secondary stat points from crosses. Pirlo will have his chances from free kicks, and Vidal will play behind the front two strikers, but if I’m going with any of the four it is Pogba. The combination of salary and the chance to grab a goal puts Pogba above the rest for me.
I may once again drink from the fountain that is Carlos Tevez ($8,100) on Wednesday. The fulcrum of Juve’s attack, Tevez is affordable and useable in all formats. He had a goal and assist on the weekend as Juventus won in Serie A. Partner Fernando Llorente ($6,200) is much less attractive because he does the dirty work for Tevez, and any worth will be tied to goals scored. Llorente hasn’t had a great season for Juventus this campaign, and is a GPP play at best.
The only two ways to roster from Malmo are the following: at keeper, Robin Olsen ($3,200) is a punt and pray that he stands on his head against an attacking Juve side. Otherwise, it’s striker Marcus Rosenberg ($5,200) as a GPP contrarian play. If Rosenberg scores, it’s likely to be Rosenberg. It’s just long odds that they do.
Anderlecht vs. Galatasaray
As mentioned before, Anderlecht must win to keep any chance of advancement alive from the group, They host Galatasaray, who are all but mathematically eliminated and will have little to play for. Gala does have interesting GPP options in attack from Burak Yilmaz ($5,400) and Wesley Sneijder ($6,400), but I won’t be rostering either. The Turkish side just is in poor form and could just go through the motions, especially if they yield a goal early. If he starts, Umut Bulut is an interesting minimum play at your flex.
Otherwise, it’s all Anderlecht in this one. I can’t see going with keeper Silvio Proto, and left back Frank Achempong would be an interesting play if DK didn’t classify him as a forward. Anthony vanden Borre ($4,000) won’t repeat his two-goal performance versus Arsenal last matchday, and I’d go elsewhere to fill a defense spot than him. Talented young midfielder Youri Tielemans ($3,000) has that minimum price thing going for him, while Dennis Praet ($5,000) and Andy Najar ($5,800) have better point production histories and more advanced roles in the formation. Forward Alek Mitrovic ($5,500) is a strong GPP flex play, but he like others are score or there’s a low floor.
Basel vs. Real Madrid
Even though Real Madrid are through, it looks like Carlo Ancelotti will use the A team at Basel—the Swiss side need to match Liverpool’s result in order to keep their advancement destiny mostly in their own hands. A loss and a Liverpool win means Basel will need to win at Anfield in order to get to the knockout stages.
Basel is tough at home, and this shouldn’t be a blowout for the Spanish side despite their 5-1 destruction at the Bernabeu earlier in the group stage. Your options from Basel are very limited, but they are there to be used in GPP formats. Tomas Vaclik ($3,200) is at home and could in theory make a number of saves and maybe give up a goal, which could see him in double digits. Luca Zuffi is another minimum salary play at midfield and is used as a wing forward by Basel, while Derlis Gonzalez ($4,400) and Breel Embolo ($4,800) are cost saving options at Flex.
Madrid’s starting 11 is full of cash game goodness, chalkier than chalk. Iker Casillas ($5,000) will be a popular play, but the combination of a road game plus Madrid not needing to win might ruin a clean sheet. Keep an eye on who Ancelotti starts at outside back; he may rest Marcelo ($5,200) and/or Dani Carvajal ($3,900), so there may be the chance for value from Alvaro Arbeloa ($4,000) or even Nacho Iglesias ($2,400).
All the big guns are expected to start in midfield and attack for Madrid. Isco ($4,500) will likely be the cheapest entry way into Madrid’s front six, but both he and Toni Kroos ($5,700) have not produced much DFS wise so far. So if you want production from this lineup, you’re likely to have pay up for the big four of James Rodriguez ($9,400), Gareth Bale ($10,000), Karim Benzema ($10,700) and Cristiano Ronaldo ($12,600). Not surprisingly, but Ronaldo is the best option of the four. The highest floor, the highest ceiling should come into the mix when you’re paying up for Ronaldo. Leo Messi’s hat trick will be in his mind, but Basel might limit the chances for a Madrid blowout. They’re a better side than APOEL.
Benzema’s ceiling is tied to goals scored; any hope of 20 points or higher will need to see multiple goals and/or assists from the French forward. Of course, he’ll be lesser owned than Ronaldo. Both Bale and James are almost contrarian plays in comparison. Their ownership numbers will be much less than the two forwards. James scored once this weekend in a 4-0 victory in league play for Madrid (Ronaldo with a pair, Benzema with the other) while also getting an assist, while Bale has only scored once in his last six matches overall for Madrid. James is the much better play, especially saving a few hundred in the balance.
Atletico Madrid vs. Olympiacos
Lastly, Atletico can clinch winning their group with a win at home against Olympiacos. Despite the visitors beating Atletico in the reverse game earlier in the group, Olympiacos have lost their other two road games in the group and are heavy underdogs in this one.
Atletico’s Moya ($5,300) is by far the best option in net on the sale, but with that comes his price tag. If you can spend low at other positions, be it a defender or a midfield, going with Moya is the way to go.
Atletico are incredibly skilled at scoring from dead ball opportunities, so even center back Diego Godin ($4,400) is a strong option in all formats—be it a defender or even as a flex, because of Atletico’s strong chances at a clean sheet from this match. The ceiling isn’t as high as a minimum play midfielder or forward, but Godin has a strong chance of hitting double digits even if he does not score a goal. It’s the same with Juanfran ($4,700), who is a safer cash game play because he can contribute through crosses and the like. If Cristian Ansaldi ($2,000) starts in place of Guilherme Siqueira ($4,300) at left back, his ownership numbers should rival Piczczek’s in past weeks and be among the top five on Wednesday. Even Jose Gimenez ($2,000) is in play as a centerback because of Atletico’s chances at a clean sheet.
Atletico’s midfield is full of potential options. Koke ($8,600) has been a producing safe option and will continue to be so on Wednesday, but that rising price tag is a bit of a red flag. I like Arda Turan ($5,800) just as much, and he is easier to fit into a lineup than Koke. Both should see healthy ownership rates. Two of Gabi ($5,000), Tiago ($4,900) and Mario Suarez ($5,500) will start, but they are more complimentary, defensive players.
Up top, Mario Mandzukic ($9,000) is a doubt due to injury. He should start, but keep an eye on the starting 11 for Diego Simeone. Antoine Griezmann ($7,000) is set to start as well, and he has had a better per game average in Europe point wise than Mandzukic. On the chance Mandzukic is out, the lineup could have Raul Jimenez or Raul Garcia (both $5,000) as the central forward. Garcia is that much more interesting because he is a midfielder on DK.
Olympiacos options are limited by the matchup. Roberto ($3,100) in net is inexpensive, but on the road against a better opponent, it’s a pure GPP option. Defender Arthur Masuaku ($3,200) has been a solid play, but his chances going forward could be limited. The midfield trio of Jimmy Durmaz ($4,100), Ibrahim Afellay ($4,600) and Chori Dominguez ($4,500) has some potential, but again, it’s a poor matchup. The highest ownership from the Greek side will continue to be minimum priced forward Konstantinos Mitroglou ($3,000). The reasons for inclusion of Mitroglou are pretty obvious, but I’ll be going elsewhere if I am going to spend the minimum at any position.