Champions League Preview: Wednesday
Today’s preview will be a bit different in that I will list players on both teams from each game, grouped by position, that are in play for me on DraftKings. Of course, this can change when starting lineups come out and the like—so get your pivots ready.
Roma vs. Manchester City
Let’s start with the match that is getting the most press of all of this slate; Roma advances with a win or a draw if CSKA wins at Bayern. A scoreless draw gets them through, but any other kind of draw puts City through—as does a win, as long as CSKA doesn’t win. Yeah, it’s complicated.
G: Go elsewhere—Roma’s Morgan de Sanctis is in a run of really poor performances, while City’s Joe Hart gets back Vincent Kompany in central defense but a win/clean bonus has pretty long odds to it. Hart is a contrarian GPP option, but the chances of a 2-2, 3-1 kind of game doesn’t attract me to him at all.
D: Gael Clichy ($3,100) saves you some salary and he’s performed rather well as of late. His teammate Pablo Zablaeta ($3,800) is starting to round into DFS form. Roma’s Maicon ($4,200) is a sure GPP play because of his ability to go forward. Beyond that, I can’t see any solid plays because of a lack of clean sheet options.
M: David Silva ($7,000) should start for City, but it is the first game back for the Spanish winger after his knee injury and it’s a tricky play to trust he’ll be at 100%. Beyond that, there is really no DFS options that you can trust beyond GPP plays. James Milner rarely scores, so you’re left with either Jesus Navas ($4,900) or Samir Nasri ($5,000). The goals have to come from somewhere for City. If he does start, Frank Lampard ($4,800) will be awfully tempting. The man scores goals and is a pure GPP
play that could win out for you or score two points in an anonymous 60 minutes or so.
As for Roma’s middle three, it’s not very DFS friendly. Miralem Pjanic ($4,700) or Radja Nainggolan ($4,200) are excellent real life players, but their jobs in Roma’s formation is not to score.
F: With Sergio Aguero out, it looks like both Edin Dzeko ($7,900) and Stevan Jovetic ($6,500) will start for City—in the end, one way or the other, City needs at least one goal to advance, be it in a draw or a win. But Dzeko is just coming back from an injury and only has a second half sub appearance this past weekend to get him ready for this one, while Jovetic sat out for City in the same game. City desperately needs Dzeko to play well in this one. For Roma, Francesco Totti ($6,300) will take their free kicks and penalties, but he’s a straight GPP play—he needs to score to have value and his floor is awfully low. Gervinho ($7,800) has cooled off greatly from a superb start to his season and has only scored once since mid-October. The biggest wild card of the bunch is Adem Ljajic ($5,100) who seems to have earned a starting spot in this one mostly based on a two-goal performance this past weekend when Roma, down to ten men, came back for a 2-2 draw in league play. Ljajic is your J.R. Smith/Swaggy P option on this slate; hugely talented, but can scuttle your ship with the best of them.
Bayern Munich vs. CSKA Moscow
CSKA needs to win in order to advance and have City either draw or beat Roma in the other match. It’s a tall order on the road for the Russian side, even if Pep Guardiola sits some of his starters in this one.
G: It does look like Guardiola, all injuries and suspensions aside, will start his best backline in front of Manuel Neuer ($4,900). That price tag is awfully attractive for the world’s best keeper for arguably the world’s best club team at the moment.
D: On top of Neuer, it’s really affordable to go with Bayern’s outside back tandem of Juan Bernat ($3,900) and Rafinha ($3,800). Two things: neither did well in the last matchday, mostly because Bayern were down to ten men against Manchester City early on. Overlook that blip. Secondly, if you trust Bayern can keep CSKA off the scoreboard at home, it’s a pretty strong way to go without going in on higher end options at defender and saving your money for other spots.
M: This is where the uncertainty lies in Munich’s lineup. Projected starting 11’s from several locations do not have Guardiola using either Arjen Robben or Franck Ribery – if they do start, there are automatically high end options with excellent floors and ceilings point production wise. However, both Mario Gotze ($9,200) and Xherdan Shaqiri ($8,300) are expected to start for Bayern. Gotze is the better cash game play, with a significantly higher floor than his Swiss teammate. If Shaqiri was a lower price, he would be a superb GPP option—the man loves to shoot, shoot often, and he’s pretty good at scoring goals. CSKA’s Roman Eremenko ($4,700) is a tricky contrarian play; he plays behind the main striker and has scored three goals in CSKA’s last four league matches.
F: The only CSKA option here I’ll bring to the table is striker Seydou Doumbia ($4,700). The matchup is terrible, but he’s the lone striker in the CSKA formation and scored twice at Manchester City in his last Champions League start. Otherwise, Bayern will bring at least one high end forward into reckoning. It looks like Thomas Muller will be rested and Robert Lewandowski ($9,500) will start up top. He’s been a consistent starter, for the most part, under Guardiola but hasn’t hit fifth gear. He has two goals in five Champions League games, six in 12 Bundesliga matches. It’s nothing to turn your nose up at, but in Bayern’s formation you think he might have even more. The opportunity is there for Lewandowski to have a big day in this one, but his recent form doesn’t give you much hope for a 20-30 point outburst.
Barcelona vs. PSG
Both teams are through and the only thing in the balance is placement—PSG finish first with a win or draw, while Barca need to win outright.
G: Let’s say one thing—both Marc-Andre ter Stegen and Salvatore Sirigu will be very, very busy in this one. Ter Stegen’s price tag almost automatically takes him out of the mix, and Sirigu likely isn’t going to be on the winning side or get a shutout. Look elsewhere.
D: The outside backs in this one are definite options. Dani Alves is suspended, so Adriano ($3,100) is a cheap entry point into the Barcelona lineup. However, if you look at his stats, Adriano just does not have nearly the amount of crosses and chances Alves creates in this lineup. He’s a strong defender, but not an attacking one. Otherwise, you’re paying up on top shelf option Jordi Alba ($4,800), while the price tags on Gregory van der Wiel ($3,900) dropped a great deal and he has some real value on Wednesday.
M: I’ve said it before, let me repeat: Barcelona’s midfield is not DFS friendly. Andres Iniesta ($7,100) may pick you up an assist, but he’s not going to win you a GPP like Aaron Ramsey did yesterday (cannot believe I typed that sentence). For PSG, whomever from Javier Pastore ($6,400) or Lucas Moura ($6,100) starts will be a value option at a mid-level price tag. Moura has the greater ceiling, while Pastore plays a more complimentary role. In the end, either will be starting alongside Zlatan Ibrahimović and Edison Cavani. The middle three of PSG’s 4-3-3 have more defensive roles – Marco Verrati, Blaise Matuidi and Thiago Motta are all talented players but don’t get forward too often, like Barca’s middle three.
F: Five, count ‘em, five, top shelf plays in this one—all known quantities. Ibrahimović ($11,700) would like nothing more than revenge on the club he feels he was underused and snubbed at. Cavani ($9,800) is the cheapest of the quintet, but needs service to capitalize on chances. Then you have the three from Barca—you don’t need me to tell you Leo Messi ($12,700) is an option, the top option. Neymar ($10.600) is still the Robin to Messi’s Batman, while Luis Suarez ($10,300) still seems to be finding his way into this lineup and style of play. The latter two are definitely GPP plays, but it’s hard not to gut your team of you stack one with Messi in your lineup.
Ajax vs. APOEL
At home, Ajax gets third and a spot in the Europa League with a draw or win. There is a lot of value for Ajax players in this one, especially if you choose the one that does well in this very attractive matchup.
G: Jasper Cillessen ($4,700) is a definite option, he should get a win—but that ceiling has a razor thin margin of error. One goal, even in a 3 or 4-1 win, ruins things.
D: Ajax’s outside backs are cheap, but neither Nick Viergever nor Ricardo van Rhijn have showed any DFS potential or output. Look elsewhere.
M: Here’s where things get interesting. Davy Klaassen ($5,000), Thulani Serero ($4,300) and Lucas Andersen ($3,200) are all affordable and can be used as salary savers. If you’re buying up elsewhere, you are going to need to save somewhere.
F: Lastly, both Lasse Schone ($5,700) and Arkadiusz Milik ($5,000) are flex options with a good matchup to exploit as forwards. Milik scored twice on the weekend and is the lead striker in the formation, while Schone has the better resume.
Chelsea vs. Sporting Lisbon
Sporting visits Stamford Bridge needing at least a draw or a Schalke loss to advance, while Chelsea are through and have clinched first place—and with that, Jose Mourinho will send out an Arsenal-esque starting 11 filled with backups aside from a couple of starters.
G: Petr Cech ($5,200) will be in goal for Chelsea, and is a strong play based on the strength of his team and the home start. If you’re spending up in goal, it’s either Cech or Neuer in my book. Wouldn’t touch Rui Patricio for Sporting.
D: Sporting’s Jefferson ($4,200) has had a really nice run of form both domestically and in Europe, but I can’t see using him—the matchup just does not favor getting forward all that much. For some reason, one of the guys not getting a rest for Chelsea is Branislav Ivanovic ($4,400) – both he and Filipe Luis ($4,000) are capable of hitting double digits, clean sheet or not.
M: Here is where you need to start looking at the starting lineups. Eden Hazard and Willian are definitely going to be rested, while Cesc Fabregas and/or Oscar may join them on the sidelines. If he does start, Fabregas ($8,900) could be an excellent play because he would have a more advanced role (Oscar’s) while Nemaja Matic and likely John Obi Mikel would be in front of the back four. Mohamed Salah ($5,000), Ramires ($5,500) and Andre Schurrle ($7,400) are also in contention for starts.
For Sporting, both Adrien Silva ($5,200) and Joao Mario ($3,000) have boom or bust GPP potential in order to spend up elsewhere. A minimum play like Mario could be popular on Wednesday.
F: Mourinho stated Diego Costa ($11,300) would start in this one; unless outright lies were told, Costa should see at least 60 minutes as the tip of the Chelsea attacking spear. Of course, he’s likely the first one off if Mourinho decides things are done one way or the other. Sporting’s backline is not all that sturdy; while there is risk involved with Costa, he perhaps is the best alternative to Messi to hit that top ceiling amongst the top tier among forwards on the slate. It looks like Loic Remy ($6,500) will start in a midfield role for Chelsea and should go 90, while Didier Drogba looks to be second half sub only.
Sporting has Nani out, so the front three will be Islam Slimani ($6,800) supported by Andre Carrillo ($3,000) and Carlos Mane ($5,800). Slimani has scored in two straight Champions League matches, while Carillo has that minimum play thing going for him. A loss puts their advancement into Schalke’s hands, so Sporting needs to score at least once—if not more—and these three do have value despite a rather horrible matchup even against a less than 100% Chelsea defense because of guys being rested.
Maribor vs. Schalke
Because of tiebreakers between the two, Schalke need a win and a Sporting loss to advance. So it’s likely to be all guns blazing in their road match at Maribor for Schalke.
G: Despite Maribor having four goals in five matches, starting Schalke’s Ralf Fahrmann ($5,300) is a dicey proposition. First, you have the salary—if you’re going to spend that much, as mentioned before, there are better options. And with Schalke attacking because it’s necessary, there are just too many chances Maribor get a goal off a counterattack. Even 7-10 points isn’t enough to justify spending that much on Fahrmann. In fact, a better GPP play might be Maribor’s Jasmin Handanovic ($3,700). You have the savings, he’ll see action in goal, and Schalke’s offense has been uneven both in Europe and domestically. It’s boom or bust, but with low ownership rates Handanovic could pay off.
D: Because of DK’s classification of players and a bit different of a formation for Schalke, three players with “D” on their name should have midfield roles. Dennis Aogo ($5,000) has been used in a defensive midfield role before, but it looks like Christian Fuchs ($3,600) and Atsuto Uchida ($3,700) will as well. Fuchs is the better play of the pair as he is set for a more wingback role of the pair, and crossing is a strong point of his resume.
M: First of all: Maribor’s Agim Ibraimi ($5,100) does have some value as a contrarian GPP play because he is set to start either in an attacking midfield role or up front. As for Schalke, you have two speculative plays—it’s just up in the air who they will be. With Kevin Prince-Boateng and Chinedu Obasi hurt and likely not to play—if they did, both have potential and are mid-level costs—that leaves us with Max Meyer ($4,800) and Tranquilo Barnetta ($3,000). Barnetta has drifted in his career a decent amount, but has a lot of talent. He assisted on three goals for Schalke this past weekend in a 4-0 win. Meyer scored in the same game.
F: Schalke will start both Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting ($7,800) and Klass-Jan Huntelaar ($8,000). The matchup is kind to both, but to be, it’s Huntelaar or bust. The Dutch striker is the known quantity performance wise. Choupo-Moting scored a hat trick this past weekend; Huntelaar the week before. Both should have high ownership numbers because of the matchup.
For Maribor, you have Tavares ($3,900) and either Ibraimi or Luka Zahovic ($4,700). Both are hugely speculative options, but Schalke may open themselves to counterattacks.
Porto vs. Shakhtar Donetsk
Before the last matchday, this one had so much potential—but now, it’s meaningless in real life. Porto’s first, Shakhtar is second, and lineups? Really speculative, especially with Porto having a huge domestic match with Benfica this weekend. There’s a lot in question here, so I’m going to stray a bit and give you some options, which if they start, are good ways to go.
Porto is likely to start Vincent Aboubakar ($5,000) as lead striker, with Adrian ($5,000) and Ricardo Quaresma ($5,200) in support. Aboubakar is the way to go if I’m picking from Porto—he’s young, has things to prove and Donetsk has several injuries/suspensions in this one. All the big names like Yacine Brahimi, Hector Herrera and Jackson Martinez are set to sit. In midfield, Juan Quintero (at forward on DK, $4,800) will shoot on sight and 17 year old Ruben Neves ($4,300) will be the playmaker. At defender, Alex Sandro ($2,800) is perhaps an excellent low cost defender who might even pick up a clean sheet bonus in the balance, while if he starts Andres ($3,000) is a rare minimum keeper play.
Donetsk has at least two of its back four out for this one due to suspension; Vyachelsav Shevchuk ($4,000) is the only real option to go with and without the good odds on a clean sheet I’d shop elsewhere. Also, with Luiz Adriano suspended Shakhtar’s front four may be a bit off-balance. Olexandr Gladkiy ($5,000) starts in Adriano’s lead forward role—he has not played that much in Europe, but domestically has seven goals to his name in 2014. In midfield, you have Alex Teixera ($6,200), Douglas Costa ($6,100) and probable starter Bernard ($3,000). If the latter starts, he’s an excellent punt play—he is a Brazilian national team member who has not seen a lot of playing time since moving to Donetsk.
Athletic Bilbao vs. BATE Borisov
Off a really disappointing Champions League performance, Bilbao must draw at home in order to take third the Europa League spot. BATE must win outright. That last outcome? Likely not to happen. This one is likely to be all Bilbao.
Bilbao’s upset of Donetsk was unexpected; keeper Iraizoz ($4,600) was a huge factor in that and Bilbao are a pretty strong favorite in this one. It’s hard to go with anyone from this game, but Iraizoz will be low owned and could pay off nicely in the end. If you’re looking for a minimum play at defender, you have Bilbao right back Iraola ($2,000) if included in the starting lineup. Keep an eye on who starts in the front four for Bilbao – if Aduriz ($5,800) misses out with a hamstring injury, likely replacement Borja Viguera ($5,300) or Ibai ($3,000) could be the way to go. Susaeta ($3,000) is another minimum play that might be used a lot on Wednesday.