Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets Odds, Prediction & Pick
Chargers vs. Jets Odds
| Chargers Odds | -3 |
| Jets Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 41.5 |
| Date | Mon, Nov. 6 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
This evening, Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers will face Zach Wilson and the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. Both the Chargers and Jets are currently on the outside looking in at an AFC playoff position, but can significantly improve their outlook with a win tonight.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Chargers as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 41.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Chargers
What to expect from Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert played exceptionally well in Week 8 against the Chicago Bears, but it has been a tumultuous season overall for him to this point. Despite ranking 4th in the NFL in passer rating from a clean pocket and 4th in QBR, he has three games this fall with only one touchdown pass and he has turned the ball over four times in his last four games played.
The primary concern for the Chargers offense tonight is their ability to keep Herbert protected in the passing game. Herbert has been among the best signal callers in the game from a clean pocket, but ranks only 14th in passer rating and 14th in yards per attempt when under pressure in 2023, according to PFF. New York’s defense has four games this season in which they have generated at least a 36.5% pressure rate on the opposing quarterback. This could be a tough matchup for Herbert.
Time to believe in the Los Angeles defense?
Across the last month of action, the Chargers have held their opponent to 20 points or fewer three times in four games. Yet, it is worth noting that two of those games came against the Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears – both of which rank in the bottom-half of the NFL in yards per play this fall. The other strong defensive performance came against the Dallas Cowboys, which rank only 14th in offensive yards per play in 2023.
The lone good offense that Los Angeles has seen in recent weeks was the Kansas City Chiefs, which put up 31 points on them. Though Zach Wilson and company certainly fall closer to the Raiders and Bears than they do the Chiefs, there are undeniably concerns in this unit. The secondary unit has allowed the most yards per pass attempt of any team in the NFL this year, making them vulnerable on a weekly basis, regardless of opponent.
New York Jets
Zach Wilson looking to make a statement on Monday Night Football
Zach Wilson has been much maligned this season and for good reason. He enters play tonight ranked 26th in passer rating from a clean pocket and 25th in passer rating when under pressure. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that he has only one interception across his last five games played.
During that stretch, Wilson still ranks dead-last among qualified signal callers in EPA/play and success rate, but he has not been committing the same destructive turnovers that he did early in the year. He is at least giving his team a chance each time they take the field right now, which has allowed them to win three straight games.
New York defense ready to defend home field
Following a slow start to the year, New York’s defense has picked up the intensity to regain their 2022 form. Since Week 3, the Jets rank 4th in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate on the defensive side of the ball. They have been elite against both the run and the pass, ranking in the top-nine in success rate in both phases of the game.
The Jets had one of their worst defensive pressure rates of the season in Week 8 against the New York Giants, but that had as much to do with their opponent as anything else. Facing a legitimate quarterback on Monday, it makes sense to expect New York to dial up more pressure to make life uncomfortable for Justin Herbert. This defense is capable of putting on a show this evening.
Chargers vs. Jets – Picks & Predictions
The Los Angeles Chargers are an annual favorite among pundits to make a deep playoff run, but they consistently fall far short of expectations. This fall has been no different, with the Chargers winning only three of their first seven games. The New York Jets have finally figured out how to keep Zach Wilson from losing them games, which has allowed their dominant defense to propel three consecutive wins. Playing at home on Monday Night Football, the Jets are once again live as underdogs.
PICK: Jets +3 (-105, Fanatics Sportsbook)