CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Monday, August 29th
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Happy Monday! There are only eight MLB games tonight, but it’s a slate that still gives us a lot of everything, with multiple aces and some high upside chalk offenses. The main thing to note is the differing start time between sites. DK is adding two additional games with a 6:40pm ET start time, while FD will have a 6-game main slate at the usual 7:07pm start. This is also the final week for the FanDuel Single Entry Series, so be sure to jump in there early.
Monday Night Pitching
THE TWO ACES
Corbin Burnes vs Pirates – 31.4% K, 6.9% BB, 2.84 ERA, 2.92 SIERA
Carlos Rodon vs Padres – 32.1% K, 7% BB, 2.81 ERA, 2.90 SIERA
ANOTHER HALF DOZEN GOOD PITCHERS
Frankie Montas at Angels – 23.9% K, 6.8% BB, 3.84 ERA, 3.62 SIERA
Tony Gonsolin at Marlins (DK) – 23.7% K, 7.2% BB, 2.10 ERA, 3.77 SIERA
Mike Clevinger at Giants – 20.8% K, 7.7% BB, 3.59 ERA, 4.28 SIERA
Jose Berrios vs Cubs – 21.2% K, 5.7% BB, 5.28 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
Ranger Suarez at Diamondbacks – 20.2% K, 8.9% BB, 3.38 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
Miles Mikolas at Reds (DK) – 18.5% K, 4.4% BB, 3.35 ERA, 3.99 SIERA
The overall skill sets are basically identical for Corbin Burnes and Carlos Rodon. Both guys are more than 7% ahead of the rest of the field in strikeout rate, and both have strong control with the ERA’s and SIERA’s to back them up. Over the past month, Burnes has looked a little shaky, while Rodon has been surging, and before accounting for matchup, I’d say Rodon is the more trustable ace. However, today the ‘before accounting for matchup’ is a huge issue. Rodon faces the 3rd lowest strikeout team in the league against lefties, where he can expect to see seven righties with strikeout rates below 18%, and five of them above 10% walks. Rodon is good enough that he can beat anyone, and he can have a ceiling game against anyone, but it cannot be considered the likely outcome here. If we look at his last half-dozen starts, where he’s had four double-digit strikeout games, it has been an incredibly easy run of matchups. I’m not off of him by any means, but the matchup is so much better for Burnes, that it’s a pretty simple call for SP1 here.