CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Thursday, September 8th
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Happy Thursday! From looking at these small MLB slates today, I would almost think there is something else going on in the world. We have just two small 3-game slates, one at 1:15pm ET and the other at 6:45pm. There is not a lot to dig into with either one of them, but we’ll take a quick peek at both of them and see if maybe we can uncover the WR3 that scores a TD, or whatever the lingo is.
H3. Early Slate Pitching
Corbin Burnes vs Giants
Adam Wainwright vs Nationals
Josiah Gray at Cardinals
Jake Junis at Brewers
Adrian Sampson vs Reds
Luis Cessa at Cubs
The early slate gives us Corbin Burnes mega-chalk, Adam Wainwright secondary chalk and then some dart throws. Burnes has really not looked good at all over the most of the second half, and on any normal slate, I’d be going out of my way to fade this kind of chalk. On FD, it’s not so hard to make a case to pivot to Wainwright instead of him, but at just $9,700 on DK, it’s still quite a stretch to envision two of these other pitchers beating him. When I look at the last few starts where he’s been hit around, I don’t see anything that screams that he’s been overly unlucky, he’s really just not been great. The BABIP is a little high, but it’s more that he has been an average pitcher over the past month with just 20.7% K and 6.6% walks. Is there a chance that he’s just tired enough that he’s only an average pitcher for the rest of this season? Yeah, that’s possible. I desperately want to say that this is bad chalk, but it’s a three-game slate. Let’s just see what else we might find.