CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Friday, July 29th
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It was a very long night for the ‘fade Coors’ and the ‘fade the 1st night in Coors’ and the ‘fade Dodgers’ crowd. But you know what? If that’s you, tonight is a different night. If you fade Coors as a general rule, you should be well aware that there will be plenty of nights you just get smashed, and that’s OK. You’re playing to win on the nights when that doesn’t happen, so stick to your guns.
Tonight, the Dodgers are every bit as much the clear top offense as last night, but it’s also a bigger slate, so that gives us more chances to find something to beat it even if they have another big night. But making that a tougher task is a load of quality pitchers that will quickly divide this slate into the haves and the have nots.
Friday Night Pitching
We have a crazy ton of good pitching tonight. We’ll try to draw some lines somewhere to make some groups and pick some favorites, but at first glance, I see at least 15 pitchers that you could easily make a case for. Let’s just glance at the big picture with all the stats and then I’ll try to sort them into some buckets:
Gerrit Cole vs Royals – 32.3% K, 6.8% BB, 3.09 ERA, 2.83 SIERA
Justin Verlander vs Mariners – 26.1% K, 4.7% BB, 1.86 ERA, 3.29 SIERA
Alek Manoah vs Tigers – 23% K, 5.2% BB, 2.24 ERA, 3.69 SIERA
Brandon Woodruff at Red Sox – 30.6% K, 7.3% BB, 3.73 ERA, 3.11 SIERA
Shane Bieber at Rays – 24.3% K, 5.8% BB, 3.55 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Robbie Ray at Astros – 27.9% K, 7.8% BB, 3.90 ERA, 3.41 SIERA
Lance Lynn vs A’s – 21.8% K, 5.3% BB, 6.43 ERA, 3.77 SIERA
Blake Snell vs Twins – 29.1% K, 13.5% BB, 4.75 ERA, 4.02 SIERA
Kyle Wright vs Diamondbacks – 24.3% K, 7.2% BB, 2.95 ERA, 3.50 SIERA
Miles Mikolas at Nationals – 19.4% K, 5.1% BB, 2.87 ERA, 3.99 SIERA
Patrick Sandoval vs Rangers – 24.1% K, 10.3% BB, 3.64 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
Martin Perez at Angels – 20.8% K, 6.8% BB, 2.59 ERA, 3.86 SIERA
Joe Ryan at Padres – 22.3% K, 7% BB, 2.89 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
Jeffrey Springs vs Guardians – 26.3% K, 5.5% BB, 2.50 ERA, 3.26 SIERA
Alex Cobb vs Cubs – 22.8% K, 6.8% BB, 4.26 ERA, 3.25 SIERA
Jose Quintana vs Phillies – 20.7% K, 7.1% BB, 3.70 ERA, 4.01 SIERA
Marcus Stroman at Giants – 23.3% K, 6.7% BB, 4.38 ERA, 3.63 SIERA
The Ace At The Top
Gerrit Cole
Aces In Good Matchups
Justin Verlander, Alek Manoah, Shane Bieber
Strikeout Upside
Robbie Ray, Blake Snell, Brandon Woodruff
Matchup Aided
Lance Lynn, Patrick Sandoval, Alex Cobb
Missing My Cut
Kyle Wright, Martin Perez, Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana, Jeffrey Springs, Miles Mikolas
FANDUEL PITCHING
I’m going to separate the sites today to break down this huge group of options.
On FD, where we only get one pitcher, I find it far easier to just cross off the vast majority of these pitchers. If you have salary, just play Gerrit Cole. This should be pretty obvious. He’s the best pitcher here with the combination of strikeouts and control that everyone else is lacking. The only pitcher kind of close to his skill set is Brandon Woodruff, but Cole is simply better, and while the matchups are closer than they might first appear, I’d still rather face the Royals than the Red Sox.