CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Friday, August 12th
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Happy Friday! The good news is the Cardinals have flown away, but the bad news is we’ve still got Coors and we’ve got Zach Davies vs Antonio Senzatela. But hey, we’ve got a dozen other games with more than enough high-end pivots to make things interesting. On the pitching side we have two clear aces separating themselves from the pack and then a huge glob of good pitchers in the mid-tier. It’s going to be tough to sort all this out, but let’s jump in and see what we can do.
Friday Night Pitching
We have two elite aces at the top of the board and then a huge tangled mess of good pitchers to choose between.
The Aces
Max Scherzer vs Phillies – 32.3% K, 4.6% BB, 1.98 ERA, 2.77 SIERA
Carlos Rodon vs Pirates – 31.2% K, 7.6% BB, 2.95 ERA, 3.06 SIERA
Max Scherzer is one of the most trustable aces you’ll find with only two starts this season with more than two earned runs allowed and at least 6+ innings in 13 of his 15 starts. His 32.3% K rate puts him 7th in the league and one spot ahead of this evening’s fellow ace, Carlos Rodon. Rodon does not quite have Scherzer’s consistency or innings, but he does have the same upside and a better matchup. Both of these aces can put up double-digit strikeouts at any time and give you a slate winning DFS score when they are at the top of their game. The gap between these two aces is non-existent, but the gap between them and everything else on this slate is gargantuan. With pitchers of this caliber, and essentially the same strikeout rate, there is no definitive way to pick one over the other. If forced to choose just one, I’ll take the matchup for Rodon and call him my SP1, but this is SP1 and SP1.
Because of how far ahead of the field these two are, I’m going to be very picky about considering anyone else who is even remotely close to them in salary. We’ve got a big glob of good pitchers with some good matchups and salaries mixed in. This is what it looks like:
Tier Two Pitching
Luis Garcia vs A’s – 25.5% K, 7.2% BB, 3.93 ERA, 3.64 SIERA
Corey Kluber vs Orioles – 21.5% K, 3.5% BB, 4.05 ERA, 3.73 SIERA
Eric Lauer at Cardinals – 23.7% K, 8.5% BB, 3.59 ERA, 4.07 SIERA
Patrick Sandoval vs Twins – 24.1% K, 10.6% BB, 3.41 ERA, 4.08 SIERA
Tony Gonsolin at Royals – 24.2% K, 6.9% BB, 2.30 ERA, 3.70 SIERA
Tyler Mahle at Angels – 25.8% K, 8.7% BB, 4.49 ERA, 3.80 SIERA
Mike Clevinger at Nationals – 22.9% K, 6.3% BB, 3.60 ERA, 3.84 SIERA
George Kirby at Rangers – 24.3% K, 3.3% BB, 3.40 ERA, 3.31 SIERA
Jordan Montgomery vs Brewers – 20.2% K, 4.9% BB, 3.53 ERA, 3.81 SIERA
Jose Berrios vs Guardians – 21.1% K, 5.7% BB, 5.19 ERA, 3.97 SIERA
Michael Kopech vs Tigers – 20.8% K, 11.7% BB, 3.38 ERA, 4.83 SIERA