CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Friday, July 15th
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Happy Friday! We are just a few days away from the All-Star Break, so after today, you don’t have to deal with me for the next week. Enjoy!
For tonight, we get a big ole slate with a bunch of everything. We’ve got a strong group of ace pitchers, and a hitting slate that includes Coors Field, but with enough high upside offense that it doesn’t top the list. Let’s jump in and see what we find.
Friday Night Pitching
Aces And Almost Aces
Robbie Ray at Rangers
Brandon Woodruff at Giants
Alek Manoah vs Royals
Clayton Kershaw at Angels
Yu Darvish vs Diamondbacks
Jose Urquidy vs A’s
Upside Wildcards
Michael Kopech at Twins
Hunter Greene at Cardinals
Luis Patino vs Orioles
Patrick Sandoval vs Dodgers
Cheaper Matchups, Good And Bad
Zach Plesac vs Tigers
Tyler Wells at Rays
Ian Anderson at Nationals
Jose Quintana at Rockies
Sorting The Aces
Robbie Ray at Rangers – 27.6% K, 8.5% BB, 3.51 ERA, 3.51 SIERA
Brandon Woodruff at Giants – 31.9% K, 6.4% BB, 4.01 ERA, 2.85 SIERA
Alek Manoah vs Royals – 22.7% K, 5.8% BB, 2.34 ERA, 3.78 SIERA
Clayton Kershaw at Angels – 27.6% K, 4.8% BB, 2.40 ERA, 2.98 SIERA
Yu Darvish vs Diamondbacks – 22.4% K, 4.9% BB, 3.38 ERA, 3.73 SIERA
Jose Urquidy vs A’s – 17.3% K, 5.3% BB, 4.08 ERA, 4.46 SIERA
Alex Wood vs Brewers – 23.2% K, 5.9% BB, 4.43 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Brandon Woodruff appears to be all the way back to his trustable ace-level skills. We’re looking at a 41% K rate in his three starts since coming off the IL, and he’s gotten up over 90 pitches in his last two outings. He’s an ace.
Robbie Ray now has six straight quality starts, and is back up at 34% strikeouts over that span. There’s always some risk here, but he’s an ace.
Clayton Kershaw has finally been stretched out, going 98-102 pitches in his last two starts, which were both 7+ inning gems. Outside of one bad start in Colorado, he’s been as trustable and great as ever. He’s an ace.
OK, let’s pause here and evaluate. Woodruff, Ray and Kershaw are the clear leaders in strikeout rate among this group and all are pitching well in recent performances. When we bring the matchups in, they are all pretty good. Woodruff is a bigger strikeout pitcher against lefties, and the Giants typically go heavily left-handed against RHP and have above average strikeouts as a group. For Kershaw, this current Angels lineup doesn’t look quite as strikeout heavy against lefties, but it’s also just not very good outside of Trout, Ward and Ohtani. With Ray, the Rangers present some potential trouble at the top of the lineup with some easy outs and strikeouts at the bottom. I’d call this a neutral matchup.