CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Monday, July 11th
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Happy Monday! Sort of. We are back to one of these slates where we have extremely underpriced Coors Field bats on a slate where nothing else in the same tier of projected total. We also have a couple of top tier aces, and it’s way too easy to play the two aces plus a Coors Field stack. It’s all very yuck.
One schedule note, the slates are one game different between DK and FD, with DK including the second half of the very exciting Tigers-Royals doubleheader. I assume there is some sort of prize for anyone who sits through 18 innings of Tigers-Royals. The prize should very obviously be a Slurpee. Maybe even a Slurpee every inning. Let me take this opportunity to state how absolutely absurd and nonsensical it is that we do not have a single 7-11 in the state of Alabama. In fact, there are 11 states that don’t have a 7-11. What is going on?
Anyhow, I’m thirsty, and I’m not happy about it. Let’s dig into this slate and see what happens.
Monday Night Pitching
The Three Aces
Max Scherzer at Braves
Aaron Nola at Cardinals
Max Fried vs Mets
Max Scherzer threw 79 pitches in his first start off the IL, and had a remarkable 11 strikeouts in six innings with maximum efficiency. Realistically, we can expect the pitch count to go up, but we have to expect slightly less dominance in Atlanta. However, we’ve seen what I would call elite-level Scherzer in three of nine starts this season and his 32.7% K rate with his usual control tells me this is the same top tier ace as ever. I’m going to call the matchup something close to neutral, as whatever the Braves take away with their upside, they give back with strikeouts and a right-handed heavy lineup that plays to his strength. There is certainly some risk here, but this looks like the clear SP1.
Aaron Nola is fantastic at throwing baseballs. Truly fantastic. He’s on a string of six consecutive starts of at least 7 innings and with his elite control, he has the 3rd best K-BB ratio of any starter in the league. On a per-inning basis, he’s a step behind Scherzer in upside, but if we assume there’s still at least some limit on Scherzer’s pitch count, the actual ceiling here is very close between the two of them. St. Louis is a different type of matchup than Atlanta, with fewer strikeouts and a bit less power, but they are still a quality team that gives him at least some chance of downside. I have him a step below Scherzer, but still the clear best SP2.
Max Fried was dominating through six innings last week before being removed due to ‘tightness in his right glute’. I’m no doctor, but I believe that means his butt hurt. That is too bad. Anyhow, it does not sound serious, and I’m assuming he’s 100% full go here. Fried is a great pitcher and playable in any matchup, but he’s not Scherzer and he’s not Nola. That’s about all I can say here. If you’re spreading out, yeah play some Fried, but I’ll start with him as a good 3rd place leftover.