CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Monday, July 25th
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Happy Monday! We’ve got a weird slate tonight with a whole bunch of pitchers who are not good enough to want to play, but not bad enough to want to play against. This leaves things very jumbled and messy on both sides of the ledger.
There is also some weather to keep an eye on with a few Yellows, although at this point, I don’t see anything likely enough to cause trouble to change any plans. Of course, I’m not technically a weatherman, so check back in with Roth this afternoon to be sure. OK, here we go…
Monday Night Pitching
Hold on to your socks (or hats, or whatever), it’s about to get real exciting!
Top Tier, I Guess
Sean Manaea at Tigers – 23.9% K, 9.1% BB, 4.11 ERA, 4.01 SIERA
Max Fried at Phillies – 22.9% K, 4.6% BB, 2.64 ERA, 3.38 SIERA
Tony Gonsolin vs Nationals – 24.2% K, 6.7% BB, 2.02 ERA, 3.69 SIERA
A Bunch Of Question Marks
Aaron Ashby vs Rockies – 26.8% K, 10.3% BB, 4.57 ERA, 3.50 SIERA
Nick Pivetta vs Guardians – 23% K, 8.6% BB, 4.50 ERA, 4.13 SIERA
Corey Kluber at Orioles – 21.3% K, 3.9% BB, 3.73 ERA, 3.79 SIERA
JT Brubaker at Cubs – 23% K, 9.5% BB, 4.02 ERA, 4.12 SIERA
Ranger Suarez vs Braves – 18.8% K, 9.1% BB, 4.07 ERA, 4.27 SIERA
Jake Odorizzi at A’s – 18.3% K, 7.1% BB, 3.56 ERA, 4.54 SIERA
Noah Syndergaard at Royals – 18.6% K, 6.4% BB, 4.00 ERA, 4.24 SIERA
Zack Greinke vs Angels – 12.7% K, 4.5% BB, 4.64 ERA, 4.87 SIERA
Chris Flexen vs Rangers – 16.3% K, 8.1% BB, 3.79 ERA, 4.96 SIERA
Are They Worth The Spend?
Sean Manaea, Max Fried, Tony Gonsolin
It’s been a long time since Sean Manaea looked anything like an ace. We’re looking at a guy with a completely average skill set who hasn’t topped six innings or seven strikeouts in his last six starts, and has only topped eight strikeouts once in 17 starts. He’s completely fine, and this is a good matchup, although Detroit is not quite as nonsensically bad against lefties. What I can say here is that Manaea ‘should be OK’ tonight, which is more than we can say for most of these pitchers. He’s also meaningfully cheaper than Fried and Gonsolin on DK, making it a pretty easy call there. On FD, where the three are closely bunched, I’ll still consider Manaea the SP1, but I’m certainly not going to be anywhere near locking him in.