CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Monday, June 20th
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Happy Monday! The week kicks off with an eight-game slate that is loaded with strong pitching. The offense is complete nonsense with two chalk teams that leave the rest in the dust. I will tell you right at the start that you are not going to be happy with my analysis on the offensive side tonight. It’s a blindfolded dart throwing night out there. Be safe!
Monday Night Pitching
This is a fantastically interesting pitching slate. The high-end is loaded with aces, and you should want to play those aces. But then, the mid-tier is filled with some very good pitchers at fair salaries, and you should want to play them. But then, there are dirt-cheap pitchers with talent and upside in good matchups, and you should want to play them.
Best Of The Best
Gerrit Cole at Rays – 30.6% K, 6.1% BB, 3.33 ERA, 2.87 SIERA
Shane McClanahan vs Yankees – 35.2% K, 5% BB, 1.84 ERA, 2.28 SIERA
Corbin Burnes vs Cardinals – 32.1% K, 5.4% BB, 2.52 ERA, 2.68 SIERA
Even with all the good pitching, we have some separation with this trio up top. They are three of the four highest strikeout pitchers in the league this season, and all three combine their 30%+ K rates with outstanding control. Gerrit Cole has the longest track record of ace-dom, Corbin Burnes has the best 2-year numbers, while Shane McClanahan has the best 2022 numbers and consistency. As far as tonight’s matchups, Burnes has by far the tougher strikeout matchup as well as the tougher ballpark. All three aces have matchup-proof upside, meaning that if they are at their best, it doesn’t matter who they’re facing. But we still need to try and find some reason to rank them, and I will put Burnes in 3rd place based on the matchup. I am of the opinion that McClanahan is the best pitcher of these aces right now, but it’s extremely close, and I do prefer the matchup for Cole with the lower power risk. On FD, there’s really no reasonable argument against Cole as the optimal SP1 with his discount. On DK, I’m close enough to even on Cole/McClanahan that I will land on more McClanahan assuming the projected ownership skews heavily in Cole’s favor.