CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Monday, June 27th
This DFS content is a part of our Premium Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!
Happy Monday! The next three days are going to be a bit annoying as the Dodgers travel to Colorado for a three-game set at Coors Field. Breaking down offense is going to be all about deciding to what extent you want to try and fade obvious good chalk. Fortunately, FD brought the Dodgers salaries up today, and DK has the usual high pricing on the top of the lineup, so it’s not quite as simple as just loading up the top of the order and moving on.
Before we get there, we’ll start as always on the pitching side, where we have a strange group of what looks like good pitching at first glance, but turns into a bit of a one-man show for me.
Monday Night Pitching
Starting with DK pricing, there are nine pitchers priced above $7,500. FD is sharper with the pitcher pricing, so I can’t play quite the same bury the lead game there. My clear SP1 is not any of these nine pitchers, and I’m not talking salary-based points per dollar SP1, I mean just the raw points SP1. I’m not trying to cryptic here, George Kirby is my SP1, and it’s goofy that he’s only $7,100 on DK. His $9,000 price tag on FD is not goofy, but he’s still my easy SP1. But let’s start with these nine, where I’ll gloss over them all quickly:
Kevin Gausman vs Red Sox
Lucas Giolito at Angels
Pablo Lopez at Cardinals
Adam Wainwright vs Marlins
Martin Perez at Royals
Jordan Montgomery vs A’s
Sonny Gray at Guardians
Triston McKenzie vs Twins
Tyler Anderson at Rockies
There are quite a few fairly big-name pitchers, and personally, I have close to zero interest in any of them tonight. We have four pitchers between a 25-27% strikeout rate this season – Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman and Pablo Lopez. Gausman and Giolito have been struggling massively, and over the past month, not a single one of these four pitchers is above 22% strikeouts. 22%? This is what we’re paying $9K+ for? Even if you want to just give them all the benefit of the doubt and give them their full season numbers, none of them are anything close must-plays in these matchups. Gausman, Gray and Lopez all face teams who are in the bottom six in the league in strikeout rate against righties and all these matchups come with at least moderate power risk.