CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Monday, May 30th
We’ve got an unusual Monday to close out this Holiday Weekend. Games are spread out all over the place, and we’re not getting much cooperation with even slates between the sites. My focus will be on the 6-game main slate this evening that starts at 7:10pm ET. I’ll start with a brief look at the 6-game early slate on DK. FD has split the day up into all kinds of nonsense, and I’ll just add a couple thoughts in the Cliff Notes for those early slates.
Early Slate Pitching
This is a rough slate for pitching, with a couple overpriced options up top, and then some moderate SP2 options that end up in spread-the-risk territory.
Pablo Lopez at Rockies
Dylan Bundy at Tigers
Framber Valdez at A’s
Logan Webb at Phillies
Kyle Gibson vs Giants
Nick Martinez at Cardinals
Paul Blackburn vs Astros
Ethan Small at Cubs
Pablo Lopez is the best pitcher on this slate, but he got no Coors Field discount. The rest of the pitching options are weak enough that I’d be happy to consider a pitcher in Colorado today, but this salary is just goofy. He should give you innings and at least moderate strikeouts with upside potential, but the risk is high. Given how shaky all the SP2 options are, Lopez is not completely out of the pool as a spend up to be different option, but he’s near the bottom of the list for me.
To me, the question is whether Dylan Bundy is a higher risk option that Lopez in a far better matchup. We’ve seen a couple Bundy-esque disasters already this season, and they weren’t in the world’s toughest matchups. But we’ve also played much worse pitchers than this simply because they are facing the Tigers. Personally, I’m playing Bundy ahead of Lopez, but really, I would love to find a reason not to have to play either.
So that would give us our old friend Framber Valdez who also has an outstanding matchup in Oakland. Oakland is not as bad against lefties as Detroit is against righties, but the huge ground ball rate of Valdez gives a measure of safety that Bundy does not have. We’re also seeing a ton of innings from Valdez, which helps his low strikeout rate. He’s gone at least seven full innings in three straight and now has six straight quality starts. For me, this is the SP1 today.