CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Saturday, July 2nd
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Happy Saturday everyone! Cards is off this weekend, presumably to start partying early for the birthday of America. The real-life baseball schedule is a bit all over the place today, with a couple double-headers starting early in the day, stretching all the way until after my bedtime out West. For DFS, we focus in on the late afternoon, with a 9-game slate starting at 4:05pm ET. I might also toss in a couple notes about the 5-game DK slate that starts at 6:07pm.
We’ve got a bunch of shaky weather today as well, but fortunately none of it is in games where there are pitchers to worry about. As of now, I don’t see anything that I’m planning to fade.
Saturday Afternoon On The Mound
There is a lot of good pitching, but with nothing so elite as to make it obvious where to start.
Four Something Like Aces
Dylan Cease at Giants – 35.5% K, 10.9% BB, 2.56 ERA, 3.00 SIERA
Logan Webb vs White Sox – 21.9% K, 5.9% BB, 3.04 ERA, 3.42 SIERA
Tyler Mahle vs Braves – 26.1% K, 8.6% BB, 4.53 ERA, 3.77 SIERA
Spencer Strider at Reds – 36.2% K, 10.1% BB, 3.02 ERA, 2.67 SIERA
We have two of the highest strikeout rates in the league with Spencer Strider and Dylan Cease on this slate, who also come with sketchy control. Strider’s pitch count is still a bit of a mystery, but we have seen 95+ in two of his last three starts, so I’m treating him as if the gloves are off. Cease has no pitch count concerns, hitting 100+ in six straight starts, and with him it’s all about the walks. We’ve seen him improve in the last three starts, and his last two outings have been absolutely elite ace stuff. While I don’t think he’s reached the level where we can call him ‘safe’, the upside is so extreme that he’s my clear SP1 on this slate. The matchup is tough enough that I will start spreading out past him early in my builds.
I’m still a little hesitant on Strider, but given that strikeout rate, he looks a little too cheap here, at least for the upside and he’s a strong SP2 in tournaments. Tyler Mahle is another upside pitcher in a matchup that adds to both the upside and the risk. He’s on the fringes of the pool on FD, but on DK, I love the idea of pairing either one of Strider or Mahle with Cease. With all the risk in that homer friendly ballpark, I will split up my Mahle/Strider exposure.
I have more confidence in the skill set and innings for Logan Webb than I do for either Strider or Mahle, and his strikeouts have recently come up to the level that we saw last season when he was a 26% strikeout pitcher with great control and ground balls. I’m hemming and hawing here because I really like all four of these pitchers, and it’s not going to be that tough to get two of them on DK. I land on trusting the overall skill set of Webb a little more than Mahle and Strider, so he’ll be my official first stop for an SP2
Overall, you could mix and match this group in different ways, but I’ll be going with Cease, then Webb, Strider then Mahle.
Something Pink Re-Appears In The Mid-Tier
George Kirby vs A’s – 21.8% K, 3.1% BB, 4.08 ERA, 3.58 SIERA
Martin Perez at Mets – 20.2% K, 6% BB, 2.22 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Patrick Sandoval at Astros – 22.8% K, 10.5% BB, 2.63 ERA, 4.22 SIERA
Kyle Gibson vs Cardinals – 20.2% K, 6.8% BB, 4.48 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Paul Blackburn at Mariners – 18.6% K, 6.3% BB, 3.12 ERA, 3.97 SIERA
Jose Urquidy vs Angels – 17% K, 4.9% BB, 4.36 ERA, 4.44 SIERA