CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Sunday, July 3rd
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Happy Sunday! We’ve got a nice little 9-game main slate on DK and FD that ends in time to leave Coors Field out of the mix. Perfect! I have nothing else to say in this thrilling and informative intro, I am supposed to be sleeping.
Sunday Pitching
Five Not Quite Aces
Brandon Woodruff at Pirates – 31% K, 6.4% BB, 4.44 ERA, 2.94 SIERA
Charlie Morton at Reds – 26.1% K, 8.6% BB, 4.73 ERA, 3.68 SIERA
Pablo Lopez at Nationals – 24.9% K, 6.8% BB, 2.98 ERA, 3.52 SIERA
Luis Castillo vs Braves – 25.1% K, 8.8% BB, 3.32 ERA, 3.71 SIERA
Framber Valdez vs Angels – 20.8% K, 8.6% BB, 2.65 ERA, 3.36 SIERA
All five of these pitchers are between $8,700 – $9,600 on DK, and between $8,800 – $10,100 on FD, making salary basically irrelevant.
Woodruff’s first nine starts this season were mostly bad before he went on the IL in late-May. When he came back last week, he suddenly looked like vintage Woodruff with a 10-K gem in five innings against Tampa. He threw just 76 pitches, but should get a little more leash here, I would guess up towards the 85-90 range. We’re still guessing a bit on his skills, but his early season struggles were much batted ball related than anything with his strikeout ability. He’s currently at an ace-level 31% K rate with 6.4% walks, all right in line with his best season in 2020. I don’t think we can quite just call him safe here, and the ceiling is still capped with some sort of pitch count, but to me this looks like the best mix of talent and matchup on the board today.
Charlie Morton reverted a bit in his last start, but was still decent-ish. Prior to that, he had been one of the best pitchers in the league for a short stretch after a slow start to the season. This leaves us with more guesswork on this Sunday afternoon. Overall, he’s done enough recently to convince me that he’s basically the same strong pitcher that he’s been the past five seasons. The ballpark is tough, but the matchup is good with the Reds projected lineup at a low .113 ISO along with 24% strikeouts.