CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Thursday, July 14th
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Happy Thursday! Good news, the Coors Field game gets an afternoon start time, which saves us the trouble of having to mess with more of that nonsense tonight. We have an 11-game slate that is well spread out between the pitching and hitting sides with plenty of options all around. I may have to stay up past my bedtime to watch the marquee pitching showdown tonight in San Francisco with Corbin Burnes and Carlos Rodon squaring off. The only thing that could be more exciting that that is something like Marco Gonzales vs Martin Perez, and what do you know, we have that excitement on the slate as well!
H3. Thursday Night Pitching
Two Aces And A Bunch Of Good Pitchers
Corbin Burnes at Giants – 32.4% K, 6.3% BB, 2.20 ERA, 2.75 SIERA
Carlos Rodon vs Brewers – 31% K, 8% BB, 2.70 ERA, 3.10 SIERA
Kevin Gausman vs Royals – 27% K, 4.3% BB, 2.86 ERA, 3.06 SIERA
Nestor Cortes vs Reds – 26.9% K, 5.9% BB, 2.74 ERA, 3.43 SIERA
Triston McKenzie vs Tigers – 22.9% K, 7.4% BB, 3.47 ERA, 4.08 SIERA
Sonny Gray vs White Sox – 22.6% K, 6.7% BB, 3.03 ERA, 3.84 SIERA
Luis Castillo at Yankees – 25.3% K, 7.8% BB, 2.92 ERA, 3.53 SIERA
Kyle Wright at Nationals – 24.5% K, 7.9% BB, 2.97 ERA, 3.57 SIERA
Carlos Carrasco at Cubs – 23.7% K, 6% BB, 4.55 ERA, 3.59 SIERA
Framber Valdez at Angels – 21.8% K, 9.1% BB, 2.64 ERA, 3.37 SIERA
Corbin Burnes vs Carlos Rodon! This is a fantastical real-life pitching matchup and fantastical on both sides for DFS. Both of these aces are slate breakers when they are at their best, though neither has been quite consistent enough to say it’s bound to happen. Matchup is barely relevant for either of these guys, at least from an upside perspective, but based on the projected lineups, there is very little difference in the matchups to make any sort of determination. My view on this is that Burnes is the more trustable pitcher for innings, and for upside, well, they are both equally elite. Basically, they are the same guy, a two-headed monster where Burnes uses the right arm of the monster and Rodon uses the left. On FD, I’m going to say I very slightly prefer Burnes, but on DK, this salary gap is just too big. Rodon is going to be more popular because of that salary, and so I love getting up to Burnes and/or using both, but clearly Rodon is the optimal SP1 on DK.
Starting with one of Burnes/Rodon on DK is a must for me, but we do have a good group of SP2 options who are also viable as the starting point on FD. The first thing we need to talk about is the hubbub about the Royals weakened roster going into Toronto. I’m already so tired of hearing about this nonsense, and if you want my medical opinion, you can make an appointment with Dr. Cheese MD. From a baseball perspective, we just need to look at the lineup that is on the field tonight and weigh Kevin Gausman accordingly. By the way, speaking of weighing, at the offices of Dr. Cheese MD, we do not make you walk in and immediately step on a scale. Why is that the first thing? Let’s see how much ice cream you’ve eaten, and then you can talk to the doctor. Cut it out.
OK, Kevin Gausman. He left his last start, which was 11 days ago, after three innings with a bruised ankle. Prior to that, he had finally put together a couple good starts after a month-long rough stretch. The overall numbers for the season and this Royals lineup would make him the clear best of the rest after Burnes/Rodon. Skills-wise, I’m going to assume he’s fine, so now the question becomes whether or not we have any concern after a long layoff, at least a moderate potential of a sore ankle, and 16 days since his last full start. The short answer is that I am not concerned, and I would expect we get 90+ pitches and six innings here, with potential for more if he’s mowing them down. The longer answer is that I am currently thinking that this is not a guy who deserves to be mega-chalk on this slate. Will he be mega-chalk? On FD, I don’t think so, and I am calling him the SP3. On DK, my lean as of now is that he picks up too much steam among these $8-$9k pitchers, and I’m willing to go under the field. Most likely raw points = SP3, but this is far from a lock button and I will be watching the projected ownership and listening closely to the chatter throughout the day.
If not Gausman, then…