CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Thursday, July 7th
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Happy Thursday! We’ve got a 10-game slate on DK tonight with a 9-gamer on FD that will not include the second game of the Pirates-Reds doubleheader. This slate is completely loaded with high end options on both sides of the ledger. We’ve got six aces on the mound, and we also have at some of the best offenses in the league facing below average pitchers. You’re likely going to need some big scores tonight, so let’s see if we can sort out how to get them.
Thursday Is For Aces
The Six Aces Of Thursday Night
Gerrit Cole at Red Sox – 31.5% K, 7% BB, 2.99 ERA, 2.92 SIERA
Dylan Cease vs Tigers – 34.3% K, 11% BB, 2.51 ERA, 3.12 SIERA
Spencer Strider vs Cardinals – 37.7% K, 9.6% BB, 2.87 ERA, 2.50 SIERA
Joe Musgrove vs Giants – 25.6% K, 5.3% BB, 2.25 ERA, 3.69 SIERA
Tony Gonsolin vs Cubs – 24.9% K, 7.4% BB, 1.54 ERA, 3.69 SIERA
Logan Webb at Padres – 21.7% K, 5.8% BB, 3.13 ERA, 3.40 SIERA
This is an outstanding group of pitchers, with a couple interesting things going on. If we start with the top three strikeout pitchers of Cole, Cease and Strider, we immediately run into a three-sided conundrum. Cole is the most consistent, trustable pitcher from a long-term skill set perspective, but he’s got the tougher matchup with a high salary. Dylan Cease has the far better matchup with loads of upside, but is all over the map with his consistency in both control and innings. Spencer Strider is also on the tougher matchup side, but with more loads of upside, with the same lack of consistency and innings as Cease, but also a much cheaper price tag.
So, what do we do with this information? I can tell you that what I will be doing is starting with the pitcher who has the best mix of upside and matchup, which is Dylan Cease. I’m going next to a little savings with Spencer Strider who has shown enough control improvement recently that it’s completely possible that he’s hit a new level. And then Gerrit Cole is a fantastic 3rd place. I am by no means scared off by the matchup, I would be happy to play Cole in any format on any site, I just slightly prefer Cease and I prefer the savings with Strider. Overall, I will have very close to an even mix of these three high upside aces.
Musgrove, Gonsolin and Webb. Hmmm. All these guys are great real-life pitchers, and while the overall strikeout numbers are not as elite as the top three, they all have the ability to post upside games to compete. In particular, we’ve seen Musgrove piling up innings and getting 8+ strikeouts in three of his last four starts and reaching 7 innings in six of his last 10 starts, and getting through six innings in every one of his 14 starts this season. That is fantastic stuff and I love it. I just don’t love it quite as much as I love pitchers with more strikeout ability. I’m not getting to Musgrove on FD, while on DK, he’ll be my SP4, but with a lower exposure than the top three.
Tony Gonsolin keeps rolling along, and he gets a better matchup than either Musgrove or Webb tonight. It is absolutely true that he has been very lucky and is due a lot of regression, but it’s also absolutely true that even when that regression hits, this is still a very good pitcher that belongs in this tier. I can’t do any more than just call him an MME leftover, but I wouldn’t argue with you if you wanted to put him up above Musgrove.
I love Logan Webb and I really hope he comes to my birthday party. Or any party really. But at that party, one of the things we’re going to have to do is stand around the punch bowl (actually it’s a sweet tea bowl) and tell him why we didn’t use him in our first 20 lineups on May 7th. And then we dance.