CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Thursday, June 23rd

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Well good morning! We’ve got a very early start on tap for today, and wouldn’t you know it, this is the day FanDuel decided not to call it the Very Early Slate. But that’s what it is, it’s very early. We’re looking at a six-gamer beginning at 12:10pm ET for the main slate today on DK, and a 7th game added in on FD. I am going to jump right into it and try to get this out early enough to be useful. We’ll also have an early Crunchtime coming up at 11:30 ET, so tune in for any last-minute thoughts as well as some potential lunch discussion. Mmmm, lunch!

Thursday Pitching

The sites are completely different with the inclusion of the Mariners-A’s game on FD, giving us the top two options on the board. Here is the bird’s eye view, which I have separated into two buckets:

Top Tier

Clayton Kershaw at Reds
Robbie Ray at A’s (FD)
Frankie Montas vs Mariners (FD)
Kyle Wright vs Giants
Hunter Greene vs Dodgers
Alex Wood at Braves

Cheaper Options

Dakota Hudson at Brewers
Jose Quintana vs Cubs
Justin Steele at Pirates
Devin Smeltzer vs Guardians
Braxton Garrett vs Rockies
Zach Plesac at Twins

One Ace Or Three Aces
Clayton Kershaw at Reds – 27.2% K, 4.1% BB, 2.08 ERA, 2.94 SIERA
Robbie Ray at A’s (FD) – 26.1% K, 8.3% BB, 4.25 ERA, 3.67 SIERA
Frankie Montas vs Mariners (FD) – 25.2% K, 6% BB, 3.53 ERA, 3.35 SIERA
Kyle Wright vs Giants – 27.4% K, 8.1% BB, 2.94 ERA, 3.28 SIERA
Hunter Greene vs Dodgers – 30.1% K, 9.9% BB, 5.26 ERA, 3.60 SIERA
Alex Wood at Braves – 22.8% K, 6.4% BB, 4.32 ERA, 3.51 SIERA

Almost all of the discussion comes on DK today, but I’ll start with FD, as Robbie Ray and Frankie Montas make things a lot easier. Ray has had some hiccups, but is still showing that this is not the old Robbie Ray. His improved control is giving him the innings that he once lacked, and while the strikeouts don’t spike quite as often, they are still there. Five of his last eight starts have come with 8+ strikeouts, and he’s been solid against far tougher competition. Kershaw is a better real-life pitcher, but for DFS, Ray against Oakland is the clear ace for me.

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About the Author

  • Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood)

  • One of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy, Dave Potts, aka CheeseIsGood, has won contests at the highest levels of both season-long and DFS. He is a two-time winner of a million dollar first place prize in DFS; having won the 2014 FanDuel baseball live final and following that up by taking down a DraftKings Millionare Maker Tournament in 2015. In addition, he’s won the Main Event championship in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and the NFBC Platinum League, which is the highest buy-in entry league. His consistent success in the NFBC tournaments recently earned him a prestigious spot in their Hall of Fame. Dave can also strum a mean guitar while carrying a tune and if you’re lucky, you’ll see him do so on one of his GrindersLive appearances. Follow Dave on Twitter – @DavePotts2.

  • artsemis

    “I’m leaving Dodgers, Brewers and Cardinals off that top list of individual bats, even though I love the stacks.”

    Can you elaborate on the thinking for things like this? Thanks as always for the writeup!

  • CheeseIsGood

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    @artsemis said...

    “I’m leaving Dodgers, Brewers and Cardinals off that top list of individual bats, even though I love the stacks.”

    Can you elaborate on the thinking for things like this? Thanks as always for the writeup!

    i prioritize picking out individual batters against low strikeout, fly ball pitchers. The pitchers against Brewers and Cardinals are ground balls, and the pitcher against Dodgers is high strikeout.

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