CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Thursday, May 26th
Today is the day! Somewhere along the line, the people in charge got together and decided that movie release dates would officially remain on Friday’s, but in real life, the theaters would start showing them on Thursday night. Usually, this kind of bothers me, like just tell us the actual release date. But today, I am all for it and ready to report to the Flight Deck!
We’ve got some baseball to discuss first, with a 9-game main slate on DK and a 10-gamer on FD starting a few minutes earlier at 6:40pm ET. Weather looks like it’s going to be a bit of an issue, so I will recommend tuning into Crunchtime to get the latest in Detroit and Atlanta. Both of those games, which are Yellow/Orange and Orange/Yellow have pitchers who are in the mix, which makes everything a little dicey. Let’s jump on in and see what we find.
Thursday Night Pitching
For now, I’m just playing this as if all these games play cleanly, and I’m not changing any of my thoughts due to weather. Just be aware that Nola, Wright and Skubal do have potential trouble, so if you’re playing them, make sure you check back in before lock.
A Target-Rich Environment
Aaron Nola at Braves – 30.9% K, 4.8% BB, 3.96 ERA, 2.56 SIERA
Shohei Ohtani vs Blue Jays – 34% K, 5.8% BB, 2.82 ERA, 2.45 SIERA
Frankie Montas vs Rangers – 27.4% K, 6.5% BB, 3.55 ERA, 3.08 SIERA
Eric Lauer at Cardinals – 32.9% K, 4.9% BB, 2.16 ERA, 2.52 SIERA
Tarik Skubal vs Guardians – 28.4% K, 4.5% BB, 2.22 ERA, 2.76 SIERA
Kyle Wright vs Phillies – 29.5% K, 8.4% BB, 2.49 ERA, 3.06 SIERA
Nestor Cortes at Rays (FD) – 32.4% K, 6.4% BB, 1.80 ERA, 2.68 SIERA
Wow, this is a good group of pitchers. The first thing to mention is that both Tarik Skubal and Frankie Montas left their last starts early after being hit by comebackers. They were both pitching well before being hit, and I am just assuming they are 100%. If you want to have some concern, I guess it would be with Montas, as he was hit in his pitching hand, but if the team is starting him today, I am considering him a full-go.
As far as skills, every single one of these seven pitchers are more than good enough to trust, so we’re looking at matchups and salaries. I see one of these seven that is going to be my first cut, based on a mix of skills, track record and matchup. That is Kyle Wright. He’s the only guy in this group with a walk rate over 7% and I haven’t seen enough from him to consider him on this loaded slate against the Phillies.