CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Tuesday, April 19th
Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a big 11-game slate tonight on DK, with a 10-gamer on FD that has a little bit of everything. Even with the disappointing game last night, we’re going to see more Phillies chalk tonight, although it shouldn’t be nearly as pronounced. We also appear to have a slate that shouldn’t be in danger of losing any games due to weather.
One item of note that comes into play tonight is that MLB has gotten rid of the 7-inning doubleheaders that we saw last season. The difference in the DK vs FD slates is that DK is including the 2nd game of the Diamondbacks-Nationals doubleheader.
Tuesday Night Pitching
Let’s Call It Four Aces, Then Make It Three, Maybe Two
Corbin Burnes vs Pirates
Robbie Ray vs Rangers
Joe Musgrove vs Reds
Walker Buehler vs Braves
You could maybe put Max Fried, Framber Valdez and Nathan Eovaldi in this group as well, but they fall short of my top tier (or any tier) tonight. I will bring Eovaldi into the FD discussion in the next tier.
Among this group of four aces, I’m pretty close to an immediate X button on Walker Buehler, especially on DK where he’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate. Buehler is an elite real-life pitcher, but his strikeout rate is drastically below Burnes/Ray and he has not looked nearly as sharp as Musgrove so far this season. Add in the toughest matchup of the group and he becomes just an FD MME flier for me.
As far as the other three, Corbin Burnes is my clear SP1 at home against the Pirates. His first start of the season was mediocre, but he was back to his top of the league self in his last start, going seven shutout innings with 97 pitches and a 19% swinging strike rate. He is arguably the best in the league and has a close to ideal matchup on top of it.