CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Tuesday, April 26th
Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a busy night with an 11-game main slate on both DK and FD. At first glance, I see one clear ace, a moderately sized mid-tier of pitching plus more offense to like than what we had last night. There are two games at the start of the night with some weather concerns, so be sure to check back in with Roth about the Marlins-Nationals and Orioles-Yankees game later this afternoon. It should be a fun slate, so let’s dig in and see how it shakes out.
Tuesday Night Pitching
This is a slate where I am immediately able to cross more than half the pitchers off my list with no hesitation. That still leaves us with plenty of options, though most of them are stuck in one big bucket.
The Ace
Carlos Rodon vs A’s
Rodon’s strikeout ability is heads and shoulders above the rest of this slate even just using 2021 data. Once we bring in the small sample 2022 numbers, his 44.6% K rate just jumps off the page. If you want to try and poke holes, two of his three starts have been just five innings, but a lot of that is because he’s striking so many batters out, more than offsetting the innings. Plus, the pitch count is 89-90-95, so there is no issue there. For me, until he gives me some reason not to trust this upside, I’m all in. That is even before factoring in the matchup, which gives him a further boost to the top of the board. Oakland came out of the gate strong, but things have already settled back to expectation, and this looks like one of the worst offenses in the league. Rodon is not priced high enough on DK, and I will consider locking him in, while on FD, $11,100 is a high enough tag that he won’t fit everywhere.
A Big Second Tier
Luis Severino vs Orioles
Sandy Alcantara at Nationals
Kevin Gausman vs Red Sox
Max Fried vs Cubs
Chris Bassitt at Cardinals
Patrick Sandoval vs Guardians
Josiah Gray vs Marlins