CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Tuesday, June 28th
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Happy Tuesday! Last night was about as basebally as it gets with strangeness abound all over the place. The good thing is we can just have a short memory and jump right back in with a huge 15-game slate (14 on FD) that has loads of everything. The pitching side is more loaded than the hitting side, but we still have a lot more options to keep Dodgers chalk in check. Chalk in check? Say that five times fast and hopefully that will make you giggle and forget about the Kirby disaster. OK, let’s get to it.
Tuesday Night Pitching
Yikes! There is a ton of top tier pitching. We start with 14 pitchers who have at least something close to ace upside priced at $8K or higher on DK and $8,500 or higher on FD.
Carlos Rodon vs Tigers
Zack Wheeler vs Braves
Robbie Ray vs Orioles
Charlie Morton at Phillies
Zac Gallen vs Padres
Sean Manaea at Diamondbacks
Brandon Woodruff at Rays
Framber Valdez at Mets
Tarik Skubal at Giants
Luis Castillo at Cubs
Carlos Carrasco vs Astros
Frankie Montas at Yankees
Clayton Kershaw at Rockies
Jon Gray at Royals
This is way too big a pool to talk about everyone, so I’m going to make some quick cuts with these guys:
Kershaw in Coors, Carrasco against Houston, Woodruff in his first start back off the IL, low strikeout Valdez against the Mets. Those are my first cuts. The next ones get a little tougher, but I’ve still got to narrow this down.
I love Frankie Montas, but he gets a bit lost in the shuffle here tonight. On a weaker slate, I would not necessarily be scared off by the matchup, but we just don’t need to risk this one tonight. I’m going to sing this one to a Sheryl Crow melody, The Next Cut Is The Deepest, with Tarik Skubal. I love this guy so much, but he’s been in a bit of a funk, and he just sort falls in the same camp as Montas. All these guys are MME playable but I can’t prioritize them here.
I think my next cut has to be Sean Manaea. He’s good, but I don’t know that good is what we need here. I am already so uncomfortable with everything going on here. An hour from now I might come back and decide I want to play one of these guys, but for now, I just need to keep cutting. Luis Castillo. Golly gee whiz, I sort of want to like all these guys, and I sort of do, but also, I don’t. Castillo has the potential in this matchup, but if I’m going to play an inconsistent pitcher with risk, I don’t think this is the guy.
The Actual Ace
Carlos Rodon – 31.3% K, 8.7% BB, 2.70 ERA, 3.15 SIERA
Carlos Rodon is the ace here with the slate-high strikeout rate, strong recent performance and a home matchup against Detroit. He should be quite obvious chalk on both sites. I can’t give you any reason to fade him beyond the simple fact that there are 10+ very good pitchers on this slate and its baseball.
OK, Now What?
Zack Wheeler vs Braves – 27.3% K, 4.1% BB, 2.77 ERA, 3.03 SIERA
Robbie Ray vs Orioles – 26% K, 8.3% BB, 4.07 ERA, 3.67 SIERA
Charlie Morton at Phillies – 26.7% K, 8.1% BB, 4.84 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
Zac Gallen vs Padres – 24.5% K, 6.6% BB, 2.92 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
Jon Gray at Royals – 25.5% K, 8.6% BB, 4.18 ERA, 3.72 SIERA
When I look at all these numbers, I just get more torn on everything about this slate. The guys I ‘cut’, Skubal, Montas, Manaea are just as good, and really the matchups aren’t all that different. Ugh, let me bring them back for a second:
Sean Manaea at Diamondbacks – 25.5% K, 8.7% BB, 3.87 ERA, 3.78 SIERA
Tarik Skubal at Giants – 26.3% K, 5.3% BB, 3.63 ERA, 3.21 SIERA
Frankie Montas at Yankees – 25.5% K, 6.1% BB, 3.21 ERA, 3.32 SIERA
We now have eight pitchers here who are basically all the same guy this season. FD is going to be quite simple for me, as Carlos Rodon is only $10,600. But DK is going to require a second pitcher even if you want to eat all the Rodon chalk.