CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Tuesday, May 10th
Happy Tuesday! We are loaded up with pitching tonight, but apparently, we are also going to keep getting those bases-loaded 2019 baseballs too!
This is one of the toughest slates to break down that I’ve seen this season. After looking at all the good pitching, I was expecting we’d see a lack of offense, but that does not turn out to be the case. I’ll do my best to narrow things down, but this is one of those nights where you can cast a wide net, or end up with a completely different top tier than your friends.
Tuesday Night Pitching
There is a lot of good pitching tonight, and I’ll start by trying to put it in a few different buckets. Now that most pitchers are five starts into the season, I’ll also include 2022 stats alongside the names.
Trio Of Aces
Justin Verlander at Twins – 26.3% K, 3.4% BB, 1.93 ERA, 2.92 SIERA
Lucas Giolito vs Guardians – 40.5% K, 10.1% BB, 3.20 ERA, 2.21 SIERA
Aaron Nola at Mariners – 31.1% K, 4.5% BB, 3.38 ERA, 2.36 SIERA
You can see from the numbers that Lucas Giolito is the highest upside strikeout pitcher, but Verlander and Nola are pitching with elite control that is allowing them to go deeper into games. There is really not a big difference in the three matchups, with all three projected lineups at similar strikeout rates and power numbers. All three of these aces were over 100 pitches in their last start, and I don’t have a bad word to say about any of them. The way I’ll sort these guys is just to say that Nola appears to be the best of both worlds with strikeouts and control, plus he’s the cheapest of the three on both sites, and by a decent margin on DK. Verlander has been the most consistent, but I can’t stop looking at that 40% K rate from Giolito. I don’t have strong conviction on ordering these guys, and I’ll be very close to a 33/33/33 split, but I’m ranking them Nola, Giolito, Verlander.
Strong Second Tier
Robbie Ray vs Phillies – 20.3% K, 8.5% BB, 4.38 ERA, 4.13 SIERA
Kyle Wright vs Red Sox – 30.6% K, 5.8% BB. 1.74 ERA, 2.48 SIERA
Jesus Luzardo at Diamondbacks – 33.3% K, 11.4% BB, 3.08 ERA, 3.02 SIERA
Alex Wood vs Rockies – 25% K, 6.7% BB, 4.38 ERA, 3.13 SIERA
Carlos Carrasco at Nationals – 23.1% K, 5% BB, 3.30 ERA, 3.31 SIERA
Corey Kluber at Angels – 23.8% K, 5.7% BB, 2.36 ERA, 3.32 SIERA
Joe Ryan vs Astros – 26.4% K, 6.6% BB, 1.63 ERA, 3.25 SIERA
Garrett Whitlock at Braves – 35.8% K, 4.9% BB, 1.25 ERA, 1.88 SIERA
Luis Severino vs Blue Jays – 22.3% K, 6.8% BB. 3.75 ERA, 3.53 SIERA
Adam Wainwright?? Vs Orioles – 20% K, 9.3% BB, 3.18 ERA, 3.78 SIERA