CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Tuesday, May 24th
Happy Tuesday. As we count down to liftoff here in Top Gun Week (the most glorious time of our lives!), we get a loaded 12-game slate with high end pitching, high upside cheap pitching, high upside stacks in different price ranges, high end individual bats and plenty of value. You can make a strong case for just about any different style of lineup building tonight. We’ll walk through the different options, but this is definitely going to be one of those slates where your opinion may end up being quite different from mine. And they will both be good. I feel the need, the need for Musing!
Tuesday Night Pitching
Goodness gracious, great balls of fire! We’ve got a ton of solid pitchers going tonight. We have a mix of everything from high strikeout upside with tougher matchups, down to better in real-life pitchers in good matchups. Let’s start with the old bird’s eye view, and then I’ll try to sort these guys into some squadrons.
Corbin Burnes at Padres
Dylan Cease vs Red Sox
Kevin Gausman at Cardinals
Zac Gallen vs Royals
Chris Bassitt at Giants
Walker Buehler at Nationals
Max Fried vs Phillies
Framber Valdez vs Guardians
Logan Webb vs Mets
Blake Snell vs Brewers
Sonny Gray vs Tigers
George Kirby vs A’s
Jordan Montgomery vs Orioles
The Mavericks
Dylan Cease vs Red Sox – 36.8% K, 9.3% BB, 3.09 ERA, 2.54 SIERA
Corbin Burnes at Padres – 31.5% K, 4.1% BB, 2.26 ERA, 2.45 SIERA
Kevin Gausman at Cardinals – 28.9% K, 1.5% BB, 2.52 ERA, 2.46 SIERA
These are your stars of the show.
Dylan Cease leads all major league starters in strikeout rate so far this season. He has at least eight strikeouts in seven of his eight starts, and matchup has not mattered one iota for those K’s. His control is not elite, but he also doesn’t get himself into trouble, and is generally just around 2-3 walks per game. He’s going a steady 90-95 pitches, and I’m going to expect to keep seeing the same thing we’re seeing. Something like 8 strikeouts in 5-6 innings with some risk for a few runs.
Corbin Burnes has been a little less dominant with the strikeouts recently, but maintains elite control that gives him more innings than Cease, with at least 6 full innings in seven straight. The Padres have a pesky low strikeout top of the order, but also plenty of K’s later in the lineup. Because of how much cheaper pitching there is tonight, I don’t see it as 100% necessary to spend up to an ace, but when I can, Burnes is my choice ahead of Cease. Give me the innings and the control.
Kevin Gausman has been an even more extreme version of Burnes so far this season, with plenty of strikeout ability, but even more about elite control. He has walked three batters in 50 innings and is yet to allow more than three runs in a start. The strikeouts have come down from his early season numbers, but there is still more than enough upside here to win a slate. The problem here is an even tougher matchup for strikeouts than what Cease and Burnes have. I love Gausman, but I can’t quite get him ahead of Burnes and Cease tonight.