CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Tuesday, May 31st
Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a big ole 13-game slate with a lot of everything. We have multiple aces, plenty of mid-tier pitching, and plenty of high total offense in good spots. The main item of note at first glance is the weather in Coors Field. Roth has this game at a straight Orange to start the day, and obviously, the slate changes dramatically if we lose that game. Hopefully, we’ll get some news one way or the other before lock, but be sure to keep your ears pinned for that before getting too locked in on anyone in that game.
Tuesday Pitching
The Many Aces Of Tuesday Night
Kevin Gausman vs White Sox – 29.3% K, 2.3% BB, 2.25 ERA, 2.55 SIERA
Lucas Giolito at Blue Jays – 33.3% K, 9.8% BB, 2.63 ERA, 3.00 SIERA
Cristian Javier at A’s – 33.1% K, 7.6% BB, 2.43 ERA, 2.78 SIERA
Eric Lauer at Cubs – 29.4% K, 6.4% BB, 2.31 ERA, 3.09 SIERA
Julio Urias vs Pirates – 18.3% K, 5.9% BB, 2.49 ERA, 4.29 SIERA
Frankie Montas vs Astros – 28.9% K, 6.6% BB, 3.28 ERA, 2.99 SIERA
These are all very good pitchers, but a couple things jump out at me right away. First off, Julio Urias does not belong here. His status as a top tier pitcher tonight is based solely on matchup. As far as that matchup goes, it’s not nearly as elite as you might think at first glance, at least in terms of strikeouts, which are already low for Urias. There is no reason to expect a bad game here, but the more top tier strikeout pitchers we have, the more likely that we see some big games. The salaries are all close enough that I am leaving Urias out of my top tier.
OK, next…while it’s somewhat debatable, and all these guys are close, I see two of the remaining five skill sets that move to the front of the line. Of the two pitchers with 33% strikeout rates, the better control for Cristian Javier compared to Lucas Giolito shows up in the ERA and SIERA. It’s close, they are both very good with plenty of upside, but even before considering matchup, the skills are simply better for Javier. Both the matchup and the ballpark provide an extra edge for Javier, making him my SP1. Giolito is absolutely a top of the board play as well, as Toronto has not been an offense to scare off pitchers, but I’ll take Javier first, especially with a discount.