CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Wednesday, August 3rd
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Happy Wednesday! We’ve got a busy day with two good sized slates. Our main evening slate is a 5-gamer at the usual 7:05pm ET start. But we kick things off with an early 6-game DK slate at 1:05pm and an even earlier 8-game FD slate that begins at 12:10pm. No time for shenanigans, let’s jump right in and take a quick look at these early slates, and then I’ll be back in a bit with evening slate analysis.
Early Slate Pitching
One, Three, Or Five Aces
Gerrit Cole vs Mariners – 32.5% K, 6.4% BB, 3.30 ERA, 2.77 SIERA
Zack Wheeler at Braves (FD) – 26.9% K, 5.5% BB, 2.77 ERA, 3.18 SIERA
Charlie Morton vs Phillies (FD) – 27% K, 9% BB, 4.34 ERA, 3.64 SIERA
Shane Bieber vs Diamondbacks – 24.6% K, 5.8% BB, 3.41 ERA, 3.45 SIERA
Luis Castillo at Yankees – 25.8% K, 8% BB, 2.86 ERA, 3.56 SIERA
Several More In The Mid-Tier
Jose Urquidy vs Red Sox – 17.8% K, 5.3% BB, 3.86 ERA, 4.42 SIERA
Brady Singer at White Sox – 26.6% K, 6.1% BB, 3.51 ERA, 3.25 SIERA
Martin Perez vs Orioles – 20.9% K, 6.8% BB, 2.52 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
Joe Ryan vs Tigers – 22.7% K, 7.1% BB, 3.78 ERA, 4.21 SIERA
Lance Lynn vs Royals – 23.1% K, 4.7% BB, 6.42 ERA, 3.57 SIERA
This is a lot of good pitching, but it’s also quite easy to identify the clear best ace. Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher on this slate with the most consistent skill set and the most upside. The separation between him and everyone else is more pronounced on DK, and the pricing gap is not that tough to navigate. The matchup is not without risk, and we have seen plenty of times this season when Cole allows enough runs to be just good instead of great. The case to fade Cole is based on looking for just an average game at a high cost and high ownership, with plenty of cheaper options that have the potential to beat an average Cole game. Personally, I’ll be playing as much Cole as possible, but if you want to play that ownership pivot, here are the options.