CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Wednesday, June 8th
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Happy Wednesday! We’ve got a 10-game main slate with several dicey weather situations to keep an eye on. The rain won’t affect any of the top pitchers, and hopefully it will just decide not to affect anything. Really, the bigger news than the rain is that I’m going to see Top Gun again tonight after lock! I feel the need! OK, baseball.
Wednesday Night Pitching
As I’m writing this, there is a bit of disagreement in different places whether it’s Shane Bieber or Konnor Pilkington starting for Cleveland tonight. I’ll include them both in here for now.
The Four (Five?) Aces
Nestor Cortes at Twins – 29.7% K, 6.1% BB, 1.50 ERA, 3.00 SIERA
Aaron Nola at Brewers – 30.2% K, 3.8% BB, 3.92 ERA, 2.63 SIERA
Sean Manaea vs Mets – 27.1% K, 8.4% BB, 3.77 ERA, 3.50 SIERA
Nathan Eovaldi at Angels – 26% K, 3.9% BB, 3.41 ERA, 3.10 SIERA
Shane Bieber ?? vs Rangers – 25.1% K, 6.5% BB, 3.12 ERA, 3.46 SIERA
All five of these pitchers are consistent, give you strikeout upside and pitch deep into games. The skill sets are so close here that if these guys were all the same salary in the same matchup, there would be essentially no way to split them up. In that scenario, based on the K-BB numbers, I would have Nola on top and Manaea at the bottom.
When we look at tonight’s matchup, the two best strikeout matchups belong to Eovaldi and Nola, with the lower power risk coming for the lefties Cortes and Manaea. With pitchers of this level, any of them are good enough to have that big slate winning start at any time, and I’m less concerned with batted ball variance. Just to clarify, when I say I’m less concerned with batted ball variance, that doesn’t mean that batted ball variance doesn’t exist here the same as it does for every pitcher on every slate. I just mean that all of these pitchers have the upside to dominate when it goes there way, and the skills to be respectable even when it goes against them.