CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings: Monday, July 5th
Happy Monday! We’ve got a nine-game slate on tap tonight, and for the first time in a while, there are no weather concerns! Happy Monday Roth! What we do have are several high total games where bats are easy to like and a decent but condensed pitcher pool to choose from.
Monday Night Pitching
Brandon Woodruff at Mets – 31.1% K, 6.3% BB, 1.87 ERA, 3.11 SIERA
Joe Musgrove vs Nationals – 30% K, 6.2% BB, 2.63 ERA, 3.22 SIERA
Dylan Cease at Twins – 29.3% K, 9.9% BB, 3.75 ERA, 3.81 SIERA
Kolby Allard vs Tigers – 23.2% K, 5.2% BB, 3.46 ERA, 3.80 SIERA
Tylor Megill vs Brewers – 3rd career start, 12 K, 4 BB in first nine innings
Rich Hill vs Indians – 24.1% K, 9% BB, 3.70 ERA, 4.25 SIERA
Max Fried at Pirates – 23.2% K, 8.2% BB, 4.16 ERA, 4.14 SIERA
Mike Minor vs Reds – 23.2% K, 7.1% BB, 5.33 ERA, 4.15 SIERA
Bailey Ober vs White Sox – 24.5% K, 5.7% BB, 5.84 ERA, 4.00 SIERA
The first thing I’m going to do is check the numbers for the past month to see if any of these guys have seen sharp drops that could be blamed on something sticky. As far as the strikeouts pitchers, Woodruff and Cease are still up at 30% K, while Musgrove has dropped to 23%. If we look a little deeper at Musgrove, we see that six of his last seven starts have been low on the strikeouts, but even beyond that, he has three big starts all season and otherwise really doesn’t look like a DFS ace to me. He still looks close to a real-life ace, but even there, his past three starts haven’t been quite as sharp with the control. I am not concerned that there is anything wrong with Musgrove, but I’m only considering him because of his discount from Woodruff. It is important to note that Musgrove’s matchup against Washington is far better than typical with Schwarber and Turner out of the lineup. This will be important to keep in mind when we start looking at the other pitchers in his price range.