CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings: Monday, June 21st
Happy Monday and Happy Summer! I remember vaguely being somewhere around eight or nine years old and being told that June 20th or 21st was the ‘first day of summer’. It totally blew my mind and made me question everything I knew. It had been very clear to me that summer started the second school ended in the last week of May or first week of June. I had no idea up to that point in my life that the seasons had actual real dividing lines with start and end dates based on anything other than our arbitrary feelings. It is not unlike how I felt the first time I learned about BABIP. Anyhow, happy summer, whether or not you’ve been celebrating prematurely!
We’ve got a six-game main slate, and thank goodness for that. This would have been a nightmare if we’d been forced to decide what to with Jacob deGrom again tonight. Thankfully, he’s in the double-header, so we can just watch that game and hope he’s healthy.
Monday Night Pitching
This is a solid pitching slate and one where you can make a case for almost every pitcher on the board. Not a single one of the 12 starters has a walk rate above 8% and only two of them are below 19% strikeouts. These are the three buckets I’ve got them sorted into at first glance:
Yu Darvish vs Dodgers – 29.3% K, 6.3% BB, 2.57 ERA, 3.46 SIERA
Julio Urias at Padres – 26.9% K, 3.9% BB, 3.54 ERA, 3.38 SIERA
Tyler Mahle at Twins – 29.6% K, 7.6% BB, 3.39 ERA, 3.47 SIERA
Frankie Montas at Rangers – 24.2% K, 5.7% BB, 4.21 ERA, 3.86 SIERA
Adbert Alzolay vs Indians – 26.7% K, 6.9% BB, 4.06 ERA, 3.65 SIERA
Aaron Civale at Cubs – 19.3% K, 5.7% BB, 3.48 ERA, 4.34 SIERA
Kyle Gibson vs A’s – 19.9% K, 7.2% BB, 2.09 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
Jake Odorizzi at Orioles – 24.8% K, 7.6% BB, 5.68 ERA, 3.98 SIERA
Merrill Kelly vs Brewers – 21.4% K, 7.1% BB, 5.40 ERA, 4.27 SIERA
JA Happ vs Reds – 16.5% K, 6.8% BB, 6.12 ERA, 5.11 SIERA
Brett Anderson at Diamondbacks – 14.6% K, 7.3% BB, 4.24 ERA, 4.65 SIERA
Keegan Akin vs Astros – 21.1% K, 7.8% BB, 5.76 ERA, 4.37 SIERA
Four Up Top
Yu Darvish vs Dodgers – 29.3% K, 6.3% BB, 2.57 ERA, 3.46 SIERA
Julio Urias at Padres – 26.9% K, 3.9% BB, 3.54 ERA, 3.38 SIERA
Tyler Mahle at Twins – 29.6% K, 7.6% BB, 3.39 ERA, 3.47 SIERA
Frankie Montas at Rangers – 24.2% K, 5.7% BB, 4.21 ERA, 3.86 SIERA
Up top, the marquee matchup is the start of the Dodgers-Padres series with Yu Darvish facing Julio Urias. While both are outstanding pitchers, neither one is at an elite strikeout level this season. They’ve both shown the occasional ability to spike double-digit strikeout games, but we’ve seen much more of the good, but not great outings from them recently. The Dodgers are still without Muncy and Bellinger, which improves the matchup for Darvish, though this is still a tough lineup. It’s a similarly tough matchup for Urias on the other side with a very patient and powerful top of the order for San Diego. The way I see this is that I have much more faith in Darvish at this point, and if I’m playing one of these two in primary lineups it’s definitely Darvish. He’s fairly priced, but certainly not at any discount. Let’s take a look at the next few pitchers before deciding how much we need to prioritize Darvish.