CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings: Saturday, July 3rd
Happy Saturday! Cards is making his way home from vacation, so you’re stuck with me for one more day, and he’ll be back tomorrow to celebrate America’s birthday with you. USA!
We’ve got a split slate kind of day with a 6-7 game early slate depending on site, and then a seven-game mail slate at 7:15pm ET. We’ll take a quick look at each of the slates and see if we can figure out a plan of attack for the day.
Early Slate Pitching
Yu Darvish at Phillies – 30.5% K, 6.1% BB, 2.44 ERA, 3.30 SIERA
Tyler Mahle vs Cubs – 30% K, 7.7% BB, 3.74 ERA, 3.45 SIERA
Sandy Alcantara at Braves – 21.7% K, 6.8% BB, 3.12 ERA, 3.97 SIERA
Kyle Muller vs Marlins – 32.5% K, 10% BB, 2.70 ERA, 3.45 SIERA
Tarik Skubal vs White Sox – 27.8% K, 10.7% BB, 4.06 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
Dallas Keuchel at Tigers – 14.4% K, 7.3% BB, 3.96 ERA, 4.60 SIERA
Eric Lauer at Pirates – 24.9% K, 8.5% BB, 4.50 ERA, 4.02 SIERA
This is a funny pitching slate. At first glance, I’d say just play Yu Darvish, and then try to use Tyler Mahle as an SP2 for the upside on DK or maybe take a shot on the strikeout ability of Tarik Skubal. But once you bring the pricing into the equation, things get jumbled around quickly.
On DK, there’s no reason not to start with Yu Darvish at $10,400. He’s the only pitcher here with consistent trustable skills and upside. But after that, salary turns quickly into the primary factor.
On FD, Tyler Mahle is just $8,100 and faces the high strikeout Cubs. Mahle is up at 31% K against lefties this season and has shown elite control with above average strikeouts to righties. I only slightly prefer Darvish for raw points, so with a $2,900 discount, I lean Mahle there if you need that salary.