CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings: Thursday, April 8th
Well Hello Thursday! We’ve got another early start on tap today, so again, no time for too much nonsense. It’s a 7-game main slate starting at 1:10pm ET, with three of the games starting at 4pm. We will probably get al the lineups before the first games lock, but there’s at least a chance that we’ll have to do some scrambling again today. Similar to what we saw yesterday, there are likely to be some unpredictable lineup changes, so make sure you don’t just set it and forget it until you see the lineups.
THURSDAY PITCHING
Everything I am about to say is under the assumption that all of these games play without a hitch. This slate is the first one of the season where weather could end up playing a major role, as the top three pitchers all have the potential to see rain in their games. That would of course change everything, but as I’m writing this early in the morning, we’re just going to start with assuming everyone plays. And now, here’s how I would say it, assuming Roth doesn’t screw it all up:
Folks, it just doesn’t get any simpler than this. We’ve had a few slates like this already this season, and until the pricing changes, I just can’t come up with any reason to overthink it. If it’s just important to you to outsmart the system, I get it, I really do. I know I’m going to get questions, what about this guy or that guy, but there’s less than a $4k gap between the most expensive and least expensive pitcher on both DK and FD. When the best pitchers also have the best matchups and they aren’t expensive, my opinion is that it’s silly not to just play them. You are allowed to disagree and dig around the lower tiers, and the fact is that at least one or two of the cheaper pitchers will probably outscore the top pitcher in points per dollar and maybe even raw points.
Let me pause for effect and say that again. This is extremely important. The fact is that at least one or two of the cheaper pitchers will probably outscore the top pitchers in points per dollar and maybe even raw points.
If you reverse engineer every slate and try to find what would have been the best lineup, you’re going to find some $6k pitchers in there who had their best games of the year, that’s just how it works. But when salaries are this loose, there is no need to take on the added risk of the lower tier when you can essentially get just as good a hitting lineup with the higher floor, higher ceiling top pitchers.
With that being said, this is who I’m playing today: