CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings: Thursday, July 22nd

Happy Thursday! After a couple of big scoring days across the league, we had a strange little Wednesday where not a single team topped seven runs, but even with that, the pitching was not great. This led to some lower DFS scores, but this is always a good reminder that you’re not playing against some imaginary barrier of points. You’re playing against other people using the same slate of players as you. Some days, a pitcher who scores 20 points is far more useful than a pitcher who scored 30 on a different day. This is a great reminder of a DFS concept that holds in any sport. It doesn’t matter how many points your lineup scores if you score more than your opponents. I bring that up because tonight’s slate has that kind of a feel to it.

With that, let’s take a look at this eight-game Thursday night slate.

Thursday Night Pitching

I see a fairly big group of viable options here. Walker Buehler wins the name recognition game, while the matchup for Sean Manaea also puts him into my top two, but really, there’s not enough separation here to make multiple tiers. Let’s take a bird’s eye view at everybody and then start narrowing down:

Walker Buehler vs Giants
Sean Manaea at Mariners
Charlie Morton at Phillies
Blake Snell at Marlins
Andrew Heaney at Twins
Kenta Maeda vs Angels
Kwang Hyun Kim vs Cubs
Anthony Desclafani at Dodgers
Luis Patino at Indians
Adbert Alzolay at Cardinals
Matt Moore vs Braves

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About the Author

  • Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood)

  • One of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy, Dave Potts, aka CheeseIsGood, has won contests at the highest levels of both season-long and DFS. He is a two-time winner of a million dollar first place prize in DFS; having won the 2014 FanDuel baseball live final and following that up by taking down a DraftKings Millionare Maker Tournament in 2015. In addition, he’s won the Main Event championship in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and the NFBC Platinum League, which is the highest buy-in entry league. His consistent success in the NFBC tournaments recently earned him a prestigious spot in their Hall of Fame. Dave can also strum a mean guitar while carrying a tune and if you’re lucky, you’ll see him do so on one of his GrindersLive appearances. Follow Dave on Twitter – @DavePotts2.

Comments

  • Strategery

    Hi Cheese,

    Can you talk a little about why someone like Manaea comes in as your SP1 vs. someone like Chris Flexen not making the cut at all in today’s slate? I understand cuts have to be made, but I’m trying to get a better handle on your way of thinking. Its obvious Flexen’s PIQ is reasonably horrible comparatively, but boxscore watching Flexen appears to have really found his groove and is going a little longer in games after coming over from Korea while Manaea has shown more strikeout upside but outside of one blowup game against these Mariners seems more consistent than exceptional.

    Maybe this is silly to even have to compare given the PIQ scores, and previous matchups of Flexen going for 4 fpts vs this same Oakland team while Manaea went for 40 vs the Mariners, but with 2k savings, some seriously lower ownership, and some comparable final dfs scores over the last two months (albeit with less consistency) I’m hoping you can help me understand how I can make better decisions even when mass multi-entering.

    Maybe I’m just too nostalgic over last years 2:30am KBO nights when the only other game in town was League of Legends.?

  • mrbdoremi2

    • 230

      RG Overall Ranking

    Wow! After the first couple pitchers , everyone else is the model of mediocrity. Its kind of like what Garrison Keeler says about pumpkin pie. The best piece of pumpkin pie that you have ever had is not that much better than the worst. It seems like every pitcher gives up a handful of hits each game, a couple runs and has a few strike outs

  • CheeseIsGood

    MLB Premium Director

    • 35

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #7

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • x2

      $1M Prize Winner

    • x2

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @Strategery said...

    Hi Cheese,

    Can you talk a little about why someone like Manaea comes in as your SP1 vs. someone like Chris Flexen not making the cut at all in today’s slate? I understand cuts have to be made, but I’m trying to get a better handle on your way of thinking. Its obvious Flexen’s PIQ is reasonably horrible comparatively, but boxscore watching Flexen appears to have really found his groove and is going a little longer in games after coming over from Korea while Manaea has shown more strikeout upside but outside of one blowup game against these Mariners seems more consistent than exceptional.

    Maybe this is silly to even have to compare given the PIQ scores, and previous matchups of Flexen going for 4 fpts vs this same Oakland team while Manaea went for 40 vs the Mariners, but with 2k savings, some seriously lower ownership, and some comparable final dfs scores over the last two months (albeit with less consistency) I’m hoping you can help me understand how I can make better decisions even when mass multi-entering.

    Maybe I’m just too nostalgic over last years 2:30am KBO nights when the only other game in town was League of Legends.?

    There is nothing at all wrong with playing some Flexen. On a slate like this where everyone is close, it’s all viable. I am never going to try and mention every viable play, but to give you my personal view on it. Quite simply, the reason Flexen didn’t make my list here is that he is dead last in strikeout rate amongst every pitcher on this slate. His last few good starts have come with low strikeouts and incredibly good fortune on BABIP and HR/FB%. None of that means he can’t have that happen again tonight, so he’s absolutely playable. But any chunk of numbers you look at, Manaea is far ahead of Flexen in skill and he has a much better matchup.
    Don’t let me talk you out of someone you want to play, and please always remember that my goal here is not tell you who to play or to mention every viable option. Personally, I almost alwas lean towards not caring about ownership with pitchers, and I’ll worry about getting different with bats.

  • Strategery

    Thanks Cheese,

    I get the not being able to mention everyone. This slate seems particularly bleh when it comes to pitching across the board which makes me think I could make a case for just about all of them if I really wanted to. I’m always particularly interested in the why and how you come to your conclusions. Flexen’s metrics seem below average, but he keeps putting up solid scores. He seemed somewhat similar in the KBO.(Although above average over there) Just not always sure when the results haven’t caught up with the peripherals vs the opposite. I’m playing 150 tonight, so I’ll have a little Flexen, but I do want to understand how to plug this hole in my game if I find it to be one longterm. Playing the lowest strikeout rate guy certainly has all semblance of a pretty big hole. I really appreciate your thoughts on the ownership side of pitching vs. batting too. Easy to fall trap to treating similarly.

    Congrats on this weeks bink btw!

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