CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings: Tuesday, August 3rd
Happy Tuesday! After a weird little Monday slate, we are back with a full 15-gamer that gives us a whole bunch of everything. We’ve already had one wrench thrown into the slate, as Gerrit Cole was supposed to start tonight, but has been scratched with Covid. At this point, there is no further news out of New York, but I won’t be making any firm plans with Yankees bats until we get lineup confirmation. Coors Field is back in our lives tonight, but it’s not by any means alone at the top of the charts on this loaded slate. Let’s dig in and see what we find.
Tuesday Night Pitching
This is going to be a tough slate to sort into clearly distinctive tiers. Some of the bigger name pitchers here have recent trends that concern me, while the matchups and salaries are a bit all over the place. Let’s just take a look at the big group of everyone, and then I’ll make some quick cuts to shorten this list.
Zack Wheeler at Nationals
Sean Manaea vs Padres
Walker Buehler vs Astros
Taijuan Walker at Marlins
Tyler Mahle vs Twins
Dylan Cease vs Royals
Lance McCullers at Dodgers
Hyun Jin Ryu vs Indians
Yusei Kikuchi at Rays
Kenta Maeda at Reds
Blake Snell at A’s
Max Fried at Cardinals
Adrian Houser vs Pirates
Luis Patino vs Mariners
Nestor Cortes vs Orioles
High End Salaries
Zack Wheeler at Nationals
Sean Manaea vs Padres
Walker Buehler vs Astros
Tyler Mahle vs Twins (DK)
Lance McCullers at Dodgers
You can certainly make the case that Walker Buehler is the best pitcher on this slate. He has three straight seven inning gems, and is up over 30% strikeouts in the past month. He’s also the most expensive pitcher on this slate and he’s facing the Astros. That doesn’t take him completely off the board, but it does make him a non-priority for me. His opponent Lance McCullers is a little cheaper, but still the 4th-5th most expensive pitcher on the slate, and he’s facing the Dodgers. Like Buehler, he has looked good recently, with at least eight strikeouts in five straight starts. But this is a guy who is always on the edge with his control, facing a Dodgers team that not only doesn’t strike out, but is near the top of the league in walk rate as well. Both of these pitchers are good enough to beat anyone when at the top of their game, but I have too much respect for these offenses to prioritize either one tonight.
Tyler Mahle is overpriced on DK for his lack of control combined with how far his strikeouts have fallen recently. This is not a $10K pitcher in my book right now. We’ll get back to him on FD later.
If we look at the past month, the best pitcher on this slate by a fairly wide margin has been Sean Manaea. He is up at a big 36.5% K rate with just 4.2% walks in his last four starts. Taking a further step back since the start of June, Manaea is still on top of this slate with a 30.4% K rate and 6.1% walks. Even though he shut down this Padres team last week, it’s still a very tough matchup, but even before the discount, I prefer him ahead of Buehler and McCullers here.
And then there’s Zack Wheeler. He’s backed off some, but is still regularly throwing seven innings and has not allowed more than four runs once all season in 21 starts. The strikeouts do not look like they are going back to the 30% range, but we do have an above average strikeout pitcher with strong control and a long leash. I see Manaea as the better pitcher right now, but they are similar, and for me the matchup is enough better for Wheeler to make up for Manaea’s stronger recent form. Washington is still not a high strikeout team, but they have a serious lack of firepower after all their trades. I would not argue with you one way or another on Manaea vs Wheeler, but for me it’s Wheeler as the top pitcher and Manaea as SP2.
Upper Mid-Tier
Taijuan Walker at Marlins
Dylan Cease vs Royals
Hyun Jin Ryu vs Indians
Yusei Kikuchi at Rays
Kenta Maeda at Reds
Blake Snell at A’s
Max Fried at Cardinals