Primetime Parlay: Chiefs vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:13:42

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun Same Game Parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our Same Game Parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Same Game Parlay for the Kansas City Chiefs versus the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.

Sunday Night Football could feature a snow game as the Green Bay Packers welcome the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes makes his first career start in Lambeau Field, as Jordan Love looks to continue strong recent play against one of the league’s top defenses. FanDuel Sportsbook pegs the Packers as big underdogs at home. Let’s cook up a same-game parlay ticket to sweat along with tonight’s action.

Playing DFS tonight? Try out SimLabs, now in beta, to work on Showdown lineups for tonight’s game.

Chiefs vs. Packers Same Game Parlay

Per ScoresAndOdds, online betting sites are winning on Sunday night with a 6-point spread. 50% of betting tickets and money are on both sides at the time of this writing. The books are winning unless some late news pushes the action in a different direction.

As for the implied game total, the 42.5 over/under has not budged throughout the week. 66% of tickets and money came in on the under, which is sensible given the weather in Green Bay. Lambeau Field should not see any more snow as of kickoff, but the temperatures will be freezing. The game total is one of the lowest since Patrick Mahomes became the quarterback of the Chiefs. Can either offense string together enough plays to make a run at this number?

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Jordan Love played one of his better games against the Lions on Thanksgiving. For Love, the mountain will be taller to climb on Sunday night. Outdoors in cold temperatures, one of the best passing defenses in the league awaits. The Packers will play without Aaron Jones while AJ Dillon and Jayden Reed are questionable to suit up. A banged-up Dillon missing action would mean more reps for Patrick Taylor. The Chiefs bottle up wide receivers and will look to slow down Christian Watson, who finally broke out on Turkey Day.

Jerick McKinnon will miss Sunday night with a groin injury for the Chiefs, while Nick Bolton and Kadarius Toney are both questionable. The full-strength version of the Kansas City Chiefs has struggled on offense this season. Missing any additional pieces will not help. However, De’Vondre Campbell, Jaire Alexander, and Darnell Savage are questionable on the Green Bay defense. Missing additional defensive pieces might aid an offense that sits outside the top ten in points per game.

Here are the other relevant offensive statistics for tonight’s game:

Kansas City Offense
11th — 23.3 PPG
8th — 5.7 YPP
15th — 7.1 Passing YPA
17th — 4.2 Rushing YPA

Green Bay Offense
18th — 21.0 PPG
14th — 5.3 YPP
16th — Passing YPA
19th — Rushing YPA

Those numbers are atypical for a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. The lack of a big-time wide receiver on the outside continues to inhibit the Chiefs. A great defense and reliance on Isiah Pacheco seems to be the new script in Kansas City.

The Kansas City defense allows a third-best 16.5 points per game. Against the pass they are especially strong, allowing a third-best 5.6 yards per pass attempt. The Packers’ defense is far more middling, allowing 20.4 points per game and 5.2 yards per play. The Chiefs should be able to move the ball against the Packers, especially if any additional pieces miss the game. The Packers do not get to the quarterback, and the Chiefs allow the lowest sack percentage in the NFL. Will anyone be able to make a play for the Chiefs on the outside?

If not, expect plenty of Travis Kelce and quick passes while the Chiefs hope to disrupt Jordan Love and company. Let’s see what ParlayIQ prognosticates for tonight’s affair.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Football

Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
Rice Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
Wicks Over 20.5 Receiving Yards

Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards

In what feels like a slam dunk, Patrick Mahomes is given an 18.5 rushing line by FanDuel on Sunday. Mahomes exceeded this number in 9 of 11 games in 2023. What are we doing here?

It’s no wonder that ParlayIQ posts this as the top percentage prop through the thousands of simulations. The Packers sit in the bottom ten for rushing yards allowed to the quarterback position, allowing more than five yards per carry.

I won’t overthink this one. This will be part of my SGP as well as a prop bet on its own.

Rashee Rice Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

Has Rashee Rice emerged as the top receiving threat for Patrick Mahomes? Recently, this seems to be the case. With ten targets against the Raiders, Rice turned 8 receptions into his first 100-yard-receiving game of his career. Fantasy players hope that Rice can continue with this type of volume throughout the fantasy playoffs. I don’t see a reason to fade Rice when Patrick Mahomes seems starved for a top receiver on the outside.

ParlayIQ agrees and finds this prop in a majority of simulations. We close out our Chiefs’ portion of this parlay with Rice.

Dontayvion Wicks Over 20.5 Receiving Yards

Before a concussion in the Chargers’ game, Dontayvion Wicks began seeing more volume from his quarterback. Similar to the Chiefs, the Packers’ offense is so young. The coaching staff would surely like someone to emerge as a top option for Jordan Love.

Wicks saw four or more targets in four straight games. In all four games, Wicks exceeded this number, which is deflated because of Watson’s reemergence and Wicks’ recent injury.

In what could be an ugly game, targeting props with lower numbers could prove beneficial. Wicks can hit this prop with one catch. Let’s hope he does.