NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Chiefs-Packers DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Chiefs at Packers on Sunday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
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The 5-6 Packers play host to the 8-3 Chiefs in a game with plenty of playoff implications, as Green Bay can’t afford to lose many more games if they want a Wild Card spot, and Kansas City is looking for a 1 seed as well as holding off Denver for the division. KC is coming in very healthy, as only Jerick McKinnon is out, but GB has already ruled out Aaron Jones along with listing eight players questionable, including Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Josiah Deguara on offense.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Chiefs at Packers Week 13
Currently, this game is sitting at a 42.5 total, with the Chiefs favored by 6 points. This is a pretty big spread for the road team that’s lost two of their last four, especially since the Packers have won three of their last four, and Lambeau is one of the best home field advantages in football. The Chiefs’ overall health and better defense is the main reason for them being such big favorites, but assuming Reed plays and GB can put up some points early, I think there’s definitely some upset potential here and possibly a much higher scoring game than the 42.5 projected total.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes ($12,400) hasn’t been lighting it up like previous years, as he only has one game over 22 FP since Week 3. The Chiefs still have a healthy 24.25 team total and a ton of weapons for Mahomes, so I would still try to find a spot for him in cash games, but against a Packers defense that’s been much worse against the run than the pass, I won’t be looking to captain him outside of GPPs, and I would definitely make plenty of tournament teams without him.
Jordan Love ($9,600) is coming off his best game of the year (3 TDs and 26.62 FP against Detroit), but I think he comes back down to Earth a bit here, as the Chiefs are only allowing 176.6 passing yards per game and 15.7 points per game. Game script should favor him throwing it 40+ times which still makes him cash game viable even if he has a couple INTs, but like Mahomes, I probably won’t use him in the captain spot and think he should be left off some GPP lineups.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco ($10,200) is coming off his second best game of the year (25.9 FP) and is now the third priciest player in this game. As six-point favorites facing a Packers defense allowing 135.2 rushing yards per game, I think he’s a must play in cash games and I think he makes a lot of sense as the captain. With McKinnon out again, Pacheco’s receiving upside (5 catches last game) remains intact, but either way, I think he has a big game on the ground and should be leaned on heavily if they get a good-sized lead late. Edwards-Helaire ($2,600) is just a GPP flier.
The likely game script would usually make AJ Dillon ($7,800) a very risky play here, but I think he’s just too cheap for a workhorse RB that will still be involved in the passing game no matter the score of the game. He’s seen 17+ touches in each of the last two games, going for 10+ FP in each without scoring a TD, so for under $8,000, he will be a must-play in all formats if he can find the end zone, and volume alone should make him a cash game lock.
Wide Receiver
Rashee Rice ($8,400) is another cash game lock for me, and if you don’t go with Pacheco in the captain spot, I would be looking to use Rice there. He had his big breakout game last week, turning 10 targets in to an 8-107-1 line, and even if he can put up half of that production, he will be worth his price. All of the other Chiefs WRs have legit 1-5 target ranges, making them just GPP plays for me.
Christian Watson ($6,800) is way too cheap as the top deep threat for GB, especially as they’ll likely have to throw a lot this game. He also makes a lot of sense as a captain play in all formats, and I would definitely find a spot for him in cash games in a flex spot at minimum. Jayden Reed ($7,000) is my next favorite GB WR followed by Romeo Doubs ($6,400), and if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry) I would be mixing and matching all kinds of combinations of those three WRs with and without Love and a good amount of each in the captain spot.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($11,800) is always a top play, and I can’t argue against using him in cash games, but personally, I’m looking to use 2-4 WRs in this game along with Pacheco and one QB, and Kelce’s high price just doesn’t fit a lot of builds I like for a cash game lineup. He’s always worth having captain exposure to in GPPs and should be in any lineup that omits Pacheco for max leverage.
Tucker Kraft ($4,200) is the only GB tight end I’d consider in any lineup even in GPPs, but he’s way too expensive for a main build and will absolutely need a TD to come close to paying off his price.
Defense / Special Teams
The Packers DST ($3,800) is a fine tournament play but won’t be on my cash game team, while the Chiefs DST ($4,600) is a much higher upside play if you need to fill a final flex spot on any lineup in that price range.
Harrison Butker ($4,800) is also a fine cash game value play, while Anders Carlson ($4,400) is just a GPP play for me.
Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
Given all the viable plays from both teams, I’m liking a 3-3 build in cash games, with at least one QB, Pacheco, and 2-3 WRs. Watson or Rice are my favorite captain plays, as I think one of them has a big game, and either Butker or the Chiefs D are easily my favorite cash game values under $5,000.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Isiah Pacheco – As big favorites playing in cold weather against a poor run defense, Pacheco is lined up for another big workload and likely big fantasy line and should be in your main build along with plenty of GPP teams.
2. Christian Watson – Coming off his best game of the year and with game script favoring 7+ targets again, he’s way too cheap for someone with his upside, and he makes for a great captain play.
3. Rashee Rice – It’s rare to be able to play someone for under $8,500 that could see 10+ targets and also has four TDs over his last seven games, but Rice fits the mold and should be in your main build.
4. AJ Dillon – Volume alone should pay off his sub-$8,000 price tag, especially with his bump in receiving upside with Jones out, and if he can find the end zone, he’ll be an absolute steal.
5. Harrison Butker / Chiefs DST – Both are top values under $5,000, and I would look to use at least one of them in cash games in order to fit Pacheco and a QB.
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