Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -9 |
| Raiders Odds | +9 |
| Over/Under | 52.5 |
| Date | Sat, Jan. 7 |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 18 of the NFL will begin on Saturday afternoon with an intra-division affair between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Entering play, Kansas City has a path to the 1-seed in the AFC if they defeat Las Vegas. In contrast, the Raiders have been mathematically eliminated from the postseason. On Saturday, oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable victory for Patrick Mahomes and company, pricing them as 9-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Kansas City Chiefs
NFL’s best offense
Since losing to the Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the Chiefs are 9-1 and own the best offensive EPA of any team in the league. In that span, Kansas City has scored 24 points or more eight times. Patrick Mahomes enters Week 18 as the league-leader in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and QBR. This weekend, Mahomes could set a new single season record for passing yards if he throws for 430 yards. Facing a Las Vegas defense that will be missing five primary contributors, Mahomes is likely to have another strong performance to conclude the regular season.
McDuffie making a difference
Since rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie returned to the field in Week 9, Kansas City ranks 13th in defensive EPA overall and 12th in dropback EPA. From Week 2 to Week 8, with McDuffie on the sidelines, the Chiefs ranked 22nd in defensive EPA overall and 24th in dropback EPA. According to Pro Football Focus, McDuffie has graded as the 15th best player at his position in coverage this year out of 118 eligible cornerbacks. If there is any concern for this defense, it is the fact that they continue to rank worse than league average against opposing ground attacks.
Key injury news
Left Guard Joe Thuney was listed as a limited practice participant on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week. Per Pro Football Focus, Thuney has graded as the league’s top pass-blocker at the guard position in 2022. His absence would be a significant loss for the offensive line.
Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed is listed as questionable for Saturday’s action after practicing in a limited capacity on Thursday. Per Pro Football Focus, Sneed ranks 13th out of 123 players at his position this fall in defense grade.
Las Vegas Raiders
Stidham surprises in first career start
In Week 17, Jarrett Stidham became one of only six players in NFL history to throw for at least 365 passing yards in his first career start – and he did it against the league’s best defense. Stidham excelled from a clean pocket, completing 16-of-19 pass attempts for 234 yards, but was less impressive under pressure, completing only 7-of-15 pass attempts. On Saturday, he will face a Kansas City defense that ranks seventh in the NFL this season in sacks per pass attempt. Las Vegas will need to protect their young signal caller if they hope to get another outstanding show from him. Notably, Stidham was briefly on the injury report earlier this week with an elbow injury.
Defense falling apart
This weekend, Las Vegas will start the worst collection of linebackers of any team in football. Curtis Bolton, undrafted in 2019, has played only two defensive snaps this season. Harvey Langi, undrafted in 2017, played his first defensive snaps of the season in Week 17, allowing five catches on six targets in his direction. Luke Masterson, undrafted in 2022, allowed two receptions on three targets in his vicinity last weekend, and grades 81st out of 84 qualified linebackers in defense grade this year, per Pro Football Focus. Expect this unit to have an extremely difficult time defending the high-powered Kansas City passing attack in this spot.
Key Injury News
Running back Josh Jacobs did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, but it would be surprising to see him sit-out Saturday’s contest, considering that Jacobs can nearly guarantee himself a rushing title with a modest afternoon on the ground. Ahead of kickoff, Jacobs leads Nick Chub by 160 rushing yards for the league lead.
Linebacker Denzel Perryman was placed on injured reserve after Week 16. Per Pro Football Focus, he was a top-10 run defender at his position prior to suffering a season-ending injury.
Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin is on injured reserve and has not played since Week 13. In his absence, Las Vegas 22nd in defensive EPA overall and 17th in dropback EPA.
Linebacker Divine Deablo is on injured reserve and has not played a full allotment of snaps since Week 8. One of the better run defenders in the NFL, the Raiders have sorely missed his presence, ranking 27th in defensive EPA overall and 15th in rush EPA since Week 9.
Chiefs vs. Raiders – Picks & Predictions
The Kansas City Chiefs are known to play with their food, which has led to them playing 10 one-score games this fall. Thus, instead of targeting a two-score spread on Saturday, bettors should turn their attention to the first quarter. Facing a Las Vegas Raiders team that drastically overperformed in Week 17, the Chiefs are likely to come ready to play in a must-win scenario if they want to keep their hopes alive of obtaining the 1-seed in the AFC playoffs. Bet the Chiefs to cover a field goal in the opening 15 minutes.
PICK: Chiefs -2.5 – First Quarter (-125, DraftKings)
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