Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Preview, Picks, and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-01-08 13:44:36

Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds

On Saturday afternoon, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos will battle at Empower Field at Mile High. Entering play, the Chiefs are tied with the Tennessee Titans for the top seed in the AFC, but need a win AND a Tennessee loss to secure a first round bye. The Broncos have been mathematically eliminated from the postseason. Though it can be tempting to bet on the team with far more motivation in this matchup, that may not be a profitable strategy in Week 18. Per Clevanalytics, since 1990, teams that are out of playoff contention are 94-56-4 (62.7%) ATS over the final two weeks of the regular season when playing teams that must win to keep playoff hopes alive.

Motivation does not automatically translate to a team covering. Yet, oddsmakers have been forced to move this line dramatically in favor of Kansas City, with 98 percent of the handle on the Chiefs. Let’s take a deeper dive into the matchup before revealing our Saturday Afternoon Football pick.

Chiefs -10.5

Following a surprising 3-4 start to the campaign, the Chiefs have won eight of their last nine contests, with their lone loss coming on the road in Week 17 to the Cincinnati Bengals. Though the Chiefs has found success in the standings over the past two months, there are still legitimate question marks surrounding the play of Patrick Mahomes in 2021. Mahomes has thrown 13 interceptions on the season, and has failed to eclipsed 260 passing yards in five of his last six games. Mahomes was outdueled by Joe Burrow in last week’s loss, and remains the biggest concern for an offense that is otherwise clicking on all cylinders. Playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football, Kansas City’s running backs have totaled 126 yards or more on the ground in three of the last four weeks. This is another great matchup for this group against a Denver defense that has allowed at least 102 rushing yards four straight games.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Chiefs have been mostly impressive during the second half of the season. In their last seven games, they have held their opponent to 82 rushing yards or less four times. Similarly, Kansas City was atrocious defending the pass early in the season–allowing three 300-yard games during the first five weeks. Since Week 6, only Joe Burrow in Week 17 has attacked this secondary unit for more than 261 passing yards. Drew Lock is likely to perform closer to the field, than he is to Burrow, when he faces this group on Saturday.

Broncos +10.5

On Saturday, the Broncos will be without guard Dalton Risner, and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Since losing Bridgewater to a concussion, Lock has completed 39-of-59 passes (66.1 percent), but has struggled to throw the ball down-the-field with much consistency. Perhaps most problematic for Denver the last two weeks has been the lack of a running game, totaling only 18 rushing yards on 16 attempts against the Las Vegas Raiders and only 83 rushing yards on 27 attempts against the Los Angeles Chargers. Facing Kansas City’s much-improved defense, this is likely to be another tough day for the Denver offense.

Defensively, Denver is banged up as well. Cornerback Pat Surtain II, safety Kareem Jackson, and cornerback Ronald Darby have each been ruled out for this contest. Cornerback Nate Hairston is listed as questionable, but did not practice on Thursday. Defensive end Shelby Harris is listed as questionable, but also did not practice on Thursday. The Broncos have very little talent on the defensive line, which is going to make it difficult to stop an emerging Chiefs rushing attack. Injuries in the secondary are going to make it hard to stop Mahomes and company through the air as well.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction

Per EdgHouse, the Chiefs are 4-3 ATS this season when favored by a touchdown or greater, including three consecutive covers. Though Kansas City should unquestionably win this contest, they could be susceptible to a backdoor cover with such a large number. Instead of betting the spread in this one, bettors should turn their attention to the total. The under has hit in three of the last five games in which the Chiefs have been greater than a touchdown favorite. Denver has scored a combined 36 points across their last three games. If needing another supporting data point, the Broncos rank 31st in pace of play over the last three weeks, running only 55.7 plays per game. Expect a lower-scoring affair in this one.

PICK: Under 45

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