Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Chiefs vs. Packers Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -5 |
| Packers Odds | +5 |
| Over/Under | 43.0 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 3 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs against Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. Entering play, the Chiefs are 8-3 and firmly in control of first place in the AFC West division. The Packers have won back-to-back games but will need another win this evening to stay competitive in a crowded NFC playoff race.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 43 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Kansas City Chiefs
Is the Chiefs offense…okay?
From Week 8 to Week 11, the NFL community was predictably calm and by no means overreacted to the Chiefs offense averaging 15.7 points per game against three quality opponents – because the NFL community never overreacts to anything, right? Well, everyone’s dire concerns about the “broken” Kansas City offense should be assuaged after they scored 31 points in Week 12 on the road against the Raiders.
In last weekend’s win, Mahomes looked very Mahomes-esque, throwing for a pair of touchdowns and 298 passing yards without a turnover. Rashee Rice, the team’s 2nd round draft pick out of SMU, led the receiving corps with eight catches, 10 targets, and 107 receiving yards for the afternoon.
Aaron Rodgers once condescendingly spelled R-E-L-A-X to let the media know that everything would be fine for his team. A similar sentiment is appropriate for the Kansas City offense right now. This unit has more than enough talent to be lethal on any given week.
Nick Bolton remains OUT for Kansas City defense
On Sunday, Nick Bolton will be out once again for Kansas City’s defense, marking his fifth consecutive absence. Since Bolton last played in Week 7, the Chiefs have been competitive overall defensively but not without their flaws.
Since Week 8, Kansas City ranks 11th in EPA/play and 5th in success rate overall. However, they have been vulnerable against opposing ground attacks, ranking 25th in rush EPA/play and 19th in rush success rate. Across their last four games, the Chiefs have allowed 85 rushing yards to Javonte Williams, 85 rushing yards to Raheem Mostert, 76 rushing yards to D’Andre Swift, and 110 rushing yards to Josh Jacobs. There is little reason to expect anything different from this group in Week 13.
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love emerging as franchise quarterback for Green Bay
Since the beginning of November, Jordan Love has played extremely well for the Packers. From Week 9 to Week 12, Love ranked 2nd out of 26 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in EPA/play, 5th in success rate, and 7th in air yards.
During that stretch, Love has committed zero turnover-worthy plays from a clean pocket, but he has still been vulnerable under pressure, ranking 33rd out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate in such situations. Love is still young and far from perfect, but he is undeniably trending in a positive direction as the season heads into its homestretch.
Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford return for Packers defense
According to Zach Jacobson, safety Darnell Savage will return to the field for Green Bay on Sunday after logging full practice sessions each day this week. From Week 1 to Week 7 with Savage on the field, Green Bay’s defense ranked 13th in dropback EPA/play. From Week 8 to Week 12, with Savage off of the field, the Packers defense ranked 16th in dropback EPA/play.
Safety Rudy Ford will also be back on the field tonight for Green Bay, giving the secondary unit another high-caliber option that they have been missing. According to PFF, Ford ranks 16th out of 87 players at his position in coverage grade this year.
Chiefs vs. Packers – Picks & Predictions
Prior to Green Bay’s thrilling win over Detroit on Thanksgiving, the Packers had not had a game total eclipse 43 points since Week 4…also against the Lions. Tonight, Green Bay gets two key members of their secondary unit back on the field, which should only help their defense in this matchup.
Kansas City and Las Vegas combined for 48 points in Week 12, but the Chiefs had seen their game totals end with 38 points or fewer in each of their previous three contests. Their main vulnerability is on the ground, which reduces the likelihood that any team will run up the score on them.
Both of these teams rank 14th or lower in plays run per game across the last three weeks, and both rank 14th or lower for plays run per game for the season. These are two capable defenses going against two offenses that have been inconsistent at times in 2023. The under makes sense as long as De’Vondre Campbell and Jaire Alexander play. Inactives will be announced 90 minutes before kickoff.
PICK: Under 43 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)