Browns vs. Texans Odds, Picks, and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-11-29 15:33:13

Browns vs. Texans Odds

This weekend, Deshaun Watson will play in an NFL regular season game for the first time since 2020, following multiple years of off-of-the-field drama, including allegations of sexual assault. He joins a Cleveland Browns team that likely needs to win the remaining six games on their schedule if they hope to earn a postseason berth. On Sunday, the Browns will face Watson’s former team, the Houston Texans, on the road at NRG Stadium. Oddsmakers are expecting Cleveland to take care of business in this spot, pricing the Browns as 7-point road favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Cleveland Browns

Following an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, Deshaun Watson will earn his first start in a Cleveland Browns uniform. Per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, Watson has been permitted to participate in all team activities since November 14th. However, this is the first time since the preseason that Watson has taken first-team reps, and the first time that he will prepare for a regular season football game in nearly two years. When he last played for the Houston Texans in 2020, Watson led the league with 4,823 passing yards, and finished 7th in both passing touchdowns (33) and interceptions (7). Still, it remains to be seen if he is enough to remedy what has been a disappointing campaign for the Browns. Entering play, Cleveland ranks 6th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play, ranking in the top-10 in nearly every offensive metric, both on the ground and through the air. Watson’s arm-talent will certainly open-up the playbook and allow this group to push the ball down-the-field with more regularity, but the offense has not been the problem this fall for Cleveland.

The larger concerns continue to be on the defensive side of the ball, where the Browns rank 31st in defensive EPA/play through 11 games. Cleveland’s primary slot cornerback, Greg Newsome II, missed Week 12 with a concussion. His replacement, A.J. Green, left the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a concussion of his own – leaving Cleveland extremely vulnerable in the slot if neither player is able to graduate from the injured list by the weekend. Defending the run is likely to be a problem for this unit again in Week 13, with defensive tackles Jordan Elliott and Taven Bryan showing few signs of improvement as the season has progressed. Entering this weekend, the Browns rank 32nd in the league in defensive Rush EPA/play in 2022.

Houston Texans

Kyle Allen started and played the entire game at quarterback for the Texans in Week 12 against the Miami Dolphins, but the results were no better for this offense than they were with Davis Mills under center. In fact, Houston was held scoreless for the entirety of the first half with Allen at quarterback and never even crossed the 50-yard line during the first 30 minutes of action. Per Pro Football Focus, 10.6% of Allen’s throws last weekend were graded as “turnover-worthy” and his average depth of target was only 5.1 yards – showing that the coaching staff has very little faith in his decision-making or ability to throw the ball into tight windows further down-the-field. If the Texans hope to have any success offensively on Sunday, they will need to find room to run on the ground against a weak Cleveland defensive line.

Houston’s defense has no shortage of weaknesses, but perhaps their biggest vulnerability in this matchup is on the ground, considering the fact that this group has graded as the third-worst run defense in the league this fall, per Pro Football Focus. That being said, it is also going to be extremely challenging to slow down Watson and company through the air on Sunday, with Jonathan Owens and Jalen Pitre representing, arguably, the worst safety tandem in professional football. Simply, there is not much to be optimistic about regarding the Texans’ defense beyond their pass rush, and the pass rush could be neutralized in this spot against a Cleveland offensive line that has done an excellent job protecting the quarterback in 2022. Bettors have little reason to expect anything impressive from Houston’s defense this weekend.

Browns vs. Texans – Picks & Predictions

In 11 games with Jacoby Brissett under center, the Cleveland Browns averaged 23.9 points, scoring between 20 and 32 points all but twice. The return of Deshaun Watson is likely to open-up the playbook down-the-field, but scoring greater than 30 points in a professional football game is far from an easy task, especially for a quarterback who has not seen live regular season action in nearly two years. It is safe to assume that Cleveland will be able to move the ball effectively against a weak Houston Texans defense, but rust for Watson and a lack of cohesion with his teammates should be enough to keep the Browns’ point total from exploding too far this weekend – take their total points band here.

PICK: Browns 21-30 Total Points (+140, DraftKings)

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