Clippers vs. Mavericks Preview: Game 3 Odds, Picks, & Predictions

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-05-28 22:00:06

So far, Luka Doncic is too much for the Los Angeles Clippers to handle. The 22-year-old has led the Dallas Mavericks to an early 2-0 lead, and now the playoff series moves to Texas—but can he stay apace? Clippers vs. Mavericks Game 3 odds still give L.A. the edge at online sportsbooks. Follow along as Sloan Piva breaks down NBA odds and previews his best NBA picks and predictions for Clippers vs. Mavericks — Friday, May 28, 2021.

Clippers vs. Mavericks Odds

NBA Picks: Clippers vs. Mavs Odds Update

• GM 3 Moneyline: 86% of the moneyline betting handle has come in on the Los Angeles Clippers, per Scores And Odds. If you want to bet on the Clippers to win Game 3, you have to lay -149 at BetMGM. On the other hand, you want to bet on the Mavericks to win outright, the best Dallas moneyline price is at PointsBet — Mavs +130.

• GM 3 Spread: The Clippers opened as 1.5-point favorites at some sportsbooks, but the consensus spread has moved 1.5 points, making the Clippers -3 as of 6:00 p.m. ET. Roughly 60% of the consensus betting handle is backing Los Angles to win Game 3.

• GM 3 Over/Under: 68% of the money is on the Over, butt oddsmakers have hardly flinched. The Over/Under was at a low of 219.5 Friday morning before moving back to 220 a few hour later. You can still bet Over 219.5 at BetMGM, or you can take Under 220 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use our odds comparison tool embedded in this article to find the best NBA odds for all of your playoff bets.

Continue reading our Clippers vs. Mavs Game 3 betting preview, breaking down NBA odds, picks, predictions, and our favorite promo for Friday night!

Clippers vs. Mavericks Game 3 Preview

The legend of Luka Doncic continues to grow right in front of our eyes. Admittedly, I did not have Dallas getting off to a 2-0 lead over the higher-seeded Clippers (did anybody outside of Texas have that happening!?). And, like a bullish Bitcoin enthusiast stubbornly yelling “HODL!” in a subreddit, I’m sticking with the Clips.

LA is far better than this series has suggested. And there’s no freaking way Dallas can replicate the three-point success it enjoyed in Game 2. The Mavs finished 18-of-34 from distance (52.9%), with Kristaps Porzingis going 3-of-4 (and 8-of-12 from the field) and Tim Hardaway Jr. going 6-of-8 (9-of-14 FG). Doncic nailed five treys as part of his 39-point, seven-rebound, seven-assist onslaught.

Clippers vs. Mavericks First Half Odds

• 1H Spread: LAC -1.5 (-110
• 1H Moneyline: LAC -145 ML
• 1H Over/Under: 111.5

NBA Prediction: Mavericks Will Regress

There’s a ton of room for regression for Dallas, which I still can’t believe won Game 2. Doncic committed seven turnovers, and missed five of his seven free-throw attempts (28.6%). Hardaway missed four of his eight free throws (I thought guards and swingmen were supposed to be good at free-throw shooting—did they not get that memo during their childhoods?). The Mavericks also got outrebounded by LA 39-34. But that three-point shooting made all the difference.

Mark my words: Dallas won’t shoot 50-plus percent from distance again this series. The Mavs are far too inconsistent a long-range team, and LA is far too smart a perimeter defensive squad to allow it to reoccur. Never underestimate the determination of Kawhi Leonard. Need evidence? How about two championships, two Finals MVPs, and two Defensive Player of the Year awards. Oh, and there’s also the fact that he, Paul George, and Patrick Beverley have 13 All-Defensive selections between them.

If they exhibit marked improvements on defense—especially on the pick-and-roll — I think the Clippers win and cover the -1.5. They only lost Game 2 by six, despite the insane three-point show Dallas put on. That’s because Kawhi went off for 41-6-4, and PG added 28-12-6. LA shot 53.6 percent from the field, 39.4 percent from three, and 90 percent from the line. On most nights, that’s a recipe for a win. On Tuesday, it was an upset loss and a hole dug deeper.

Clippers Can Salvage Playoff Series

There’s a few ‘ifs’ that the Clips need to make happen to salvage this series this evening. For instance, ‘if’ George shoots better from three-point land, they should win. The veteran All-Star has shot 3-of-15 from distance this series. That’s ugly.

‘If’ the ‘others’ (as Shaq calls them) show up and make an impact, they should win. Players like Nicolas Batum, Marcus Morris Sr., Rajon Rondo, and Ivica Zubac, who played pivotal roles for LA during the regular season, have been noticeably poor this series. Reggie Jackson put in 15 points in Game 2—the only Clipper not named Kawhi or George to reach double-digits—but he scored just two points on 1-of-6 shooting in Game 1. Eight of LA’s 10 players active in that game failed to reach 12 points.

So why am I optimistic about the Clippers? For one, I am stubborn. Secondly, like I said, Kawhi and George are capable of willing their team to a win with their backs against the wall. And Dallas can’t possibly keep shooting so well.

Clippers, Mavericks Betting Trends & Picks

The betting metrics back me up here. Dallas is just 15-21 against the spread as a home team, and has lost four of the nine games it has been declared an underdog at home. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 21-15 on the road this season, and 19-11 as an away favorite.

Kawhi has been in this position before, and will not take his foot off the gas until the last buzzer of the series. George will literally be grinding to avoid being dubbed the worst NBA Playoff choke artist of the 21st century. Ty Lue needs a win to prove he can succeed in the postseason without LeBron James. The others? They need to demonstrate to future suitors that they deserve a role on a contender.

I hate the Over/Under for this game, as the streaky shooting of both squads makes it feel too volatile. But I love the Clips on the moneyline, and I’m somewhat interested in LA -1.5 at the half and final. What can I say? I’m a stubborn Capricorn and a complete Kawhi Leonard stan.

HALFTIME PREDICTION: Clippers 57-55
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Clippers 116-113
NBA PICKS: LAC -135 ML, Clippers -1.5 1H

Clippers vs. Mavs Over/Under Pick

Schmitto: The Clippers are going to be the popular side, as we’ve already seen at at several online sportsbooks. As of 1 p.m. ET Friday, the line has moved as much as a full point at FanDuel Sportsbook, making the Mavericks +3 underdogs. Clippers -2 has disappeared, but you can still find -2.5 at BetMGM. I tend to agree with Sloan when it comes to betting on this Game 3 spread, but it looks like I might be a little late to the party.

Unlike Sloan, however, I’m not afraid of betting this point total. I really like the Under, as I expect some regression from Doncic and heightened defense from Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverley. There’s plenty of two-way action on this Over/Under, so oddsmakers haven’t made any significant adjustments. And if we look back at season trends, we see that the Clippers hit the Under a slight majority of the time at 51.4%. That’s not good enough for a long-term profit, but, as I stated earlier, we should expect not only some regression from the Mavs but also an increased sense of urgency from the Clippers. Additionally, the Mavericks also trended toward the Under during the regular season, with Under bettors cashing 52.8% of the time. Their overall Over/Under record was 34-38.

SCHMITTO’S GAME 3 BET: Under 220

Clippers vs. Mavericks Promo Offer

Offer: Bet $20, Win $100 Regardless of the Outcome!

• Bet now: Click here!
• Who for? New users in NJ, IN, CO, TN, WV, IA, VA, MI, PA

The good news is you don’t have to bet the right side to win on this game. BetMGM is running an NBA Playoff promo that all bettors should take advantage of: Bet $20 and Win $100 in free bets on any NBA playoff game, regardless of the wager’s outcome!

Image Credit: Imagn