Clippers vs. Mavericks Odds, Game 6 Preview, Picks, & Prediction

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2021-06-04 20:18:19

Clippers vs. Mavericks Game 6 Odds

On Friday night, the Dallas Mavericks have a chance to eliminate the Los Angeles Clippers and advance to the second round of the NBA Playoffs for the first time since 2011. But if the first five games of this series were any indication, the home team will have their hands full defending home court.

The Mavs first jumped out to a 2-0 lead beating the Clippers 127-121 and 113-103, both games at the Staples Center.

The Clippers bounced back in games 3 and 4, outscoring the Mavs by a whopping 35 points in Dallas.

What happened in Dallas was predictable. If you were playing close attention to the stats in those first two games, regression for the Mavericks was expected. They shot a ridiculous 47% from the arc in Game 1, then followed it up with a 52% performance in Game 2. That kind of efficiency simply wasn’t sustainable.

As such, when the Mavs arrived home in Texas, their hot hands eventually turned to ice, though it didn’t happen immediately. They continued to shoot the ball well early in Game 3, making more than 50 percent of their three-point shots and leading at the end of the first quarter. As the game progressed, however, Dallas struggled matching the Clippers’ physical presence down low. When all was said and done, Los Angeles scored 46 points inside the paint to the Mavericks’ 24 while outrebounding them 39-33. Led by Kawhi Leonard’s 36 points, the Clippers snagged their first win of the series, beating the Mavs 118-108 and covering the spread (-2) by eight points.

Then in Game 4, the Mavericks continued to shoot the three-ball but couldn’t buy a basket this go-around, making only 5-of-30 attempts from outside.

What’s cooler than being cool? (Ice cold!)

The Clippers matched the Mavs’ road wins, evening up the series 2-2 before flying back to Los Angeles, where I expected those Outkast lyrics to stick with the Mavericks.

I was wrong.

They didn’t shoot lights out like they did during their first two appearances in the Staples Center, but they made shot a respectable 39% from the three-point line while holding the Clippers to 100 points. Once again, the road team left victorious.

One of Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle’s changes was to insert center Boban Marjanovic into the starting lineup. Marjanovic grabbed 7 rebounds and scored 9 points during his 20 minutes on the court and the first NBA Playoff start of his five-year career. His 7-foot-4 mountainous presence helped the Mavericks nearly match the Clippers on the glass (45 to 47 rebounds, respectively) and offensively in the paint (36 to 38 points).

Mavericks-Clippers Pick & Prediction

While Marjanovic didn’t start Game 4, he did make his first appearance of the series and played 15 minutes. The Under hit in both games that he’s played in, with the two teams combining to score 187 and 205 points, respectively — well below the point total set by oddsmakers.

Carlisle’s adjustment to go big has worked for the Mavericks, so I think it’s safe to assume they take a similar approach in Game 6. Sportsbooks have made a slight adjustment for the Over/Under, lowering it to 216.5. That’s not much different than what we saw in the first two games of the series, though.

As for the Game 6 spread, the Clippers are -2.5, as of Thursday afternoon. It’s still early but I’m not sure what to think about the spread. If you were twisting my arm for an early pick, I’d have a tough time betting against the Clippers. The game is in Dallas, sure, but home-court hasn’t meant much this series.

Given what we know about these teams, coaches, and recent adjustments, my favorite early bet is Under 216.5. The Mavs and Clippers play at two of the slowest paces in the NBA, and now they’re playing slower than their regular-season averages. The Over has hit in two games this series, but both times resulted from unsustainable three-point shooting.

Game 6 Pick: Under 216.5 at BetMGM

Mavs & Clippers Prop Bets

If you’re a long-time DFS player, then you’ll love betting on player props. In fact, props are one of the best ways to transition from DFS to sports betting, as prop markets are easier to beat than spreads, moneylines, and Over/Unders. Below is what player props look like for the Mavs & Clippers:

Doncic has shined in this series, but might his prop projection be a tad inflated? He’s scored over 32 points three times in five games this series, with 42-, 44-, and 39-point performances. In Game 4, however, he was held to 19 points on 37.5% shooting (14.3% from three). Doncic isn’t fully healthy, and is playing through a moderate ankle sprain. That, of course, didn’t slow him down in Game 5, but I think Leonard and George and muster up enough defense to keep him in the high 20s as they try to force a Game 7. I was on the Under for Damian Lillard last night, which worked out. I’m rolling those profits over to bet another player prop tonight: Doncic UNDER 31.5 Points (-105)*

If you think Doncic will put up up some points, then you might be interested in this NBA Odds Booster at FOX Bet:

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