College Basketball Grind Down: December 3rd

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-12-03 22:16:38

Happy Big Ten/ACC challenge to you all, and for those who are thinking the ACC is going to blow the Big 10 out, I would think twice. The Big 10 matches up pretty well, and although the ACC is the favorite I wouldn’t be surprised for the Big 10 to pull a surprise here. Anyways, these early season events force some of the more cowardly teams to play some other teams of their own caliber which in turn gives us some good fantasy slates, in fact this week should provide some of the best action to date this season.

All stats courtesy of Kenpom.com

Michigan T: 64.9

This game brings a bit of a challenge, as Nik Stauskas should play but how confident are we in his ankle? I hope they aren’t trying to rush him back to get this win against Duke, and his new found step could be somewhat hampered by a sore ankle. I am most likely going to be avoiding Nik today. Mitch McGary makes a very interesting play, and one I anticipate using. He should be pretty cheap across the industry as he has not got many minutes coming back from his back injury, but he is almost full strength and is going to be facing off against Duke who lacks a true post figure. I could see McGary going off in this one. If Stauskas has issues, look for Caris LeVert to take a ton of the shots as he has been a mainstay early. I would not really look at Zak Irvin too seriously, although if he continues to shoot at this ridiculous rate he could gain some consideration.

Duke T: 71.6

Part of the problems for this Duke team in the early going is no inside presence and no defense. Jabari Parker is not a 5, and neither is Rodney Hood but they are forced to do most of the rebounding and defending of the other team’s big men. With a guy like McGary this could be a big problem. Jabari Parker takes a ton of shots and is always in play if you can afford him. Rodney Hood has better offensive numbers and is playing more minutes, albeit taking a few less shots and rebounding at a worse rate. I actually think the fantasy difference between Hood and Parker is less than most people think and I would go the cheaper route. Quinn Cook is my favorite play tonight against Walton, and anyone else Michigan will try to throw on him. Cook plays a ton of minutes, takes a decent amount of shots and gets assists. Last year he had some monster fantasy games and I want to take advantage of those while his price is low.

Florida State T: 71.6

I really have not looked at Florida State much this year for fantasy reasons, but it appears that they have somewhat settled on a few guys for the starting lineup, which is nice for fantasy purposes. Miller, White, and Brandon are the mainstays and all make solid but risky plays against Minnesota. One thing that really catches my eye is that fast tempo that Leonard Hamilton is deploying this year which is faster than any year he has had at Florida State yet. The big guys in Ojo and Bojanovsky might get some extra minutes in this one due to the height that Minnesota can deploy, but they are not to be trusted.

Minnesota T: 69.3

There is really only one guy to own here and that is Andre Hollins. I really like Hollins against the 3 headed backcourt of Florida State as no one can guard him. Every once in a while Austin Hollins will have a better game but Andre is the go-to guy and has a better chance of producing. I am not enamored with anyone else on this team except for maybe Eliason where blocks are rewarded. Do not be scared off by Andre’s poor last game as he was in foul trouble against Chaminade and there was not a real reason to use him very much.

Indiana T: 74.4

Do not be worried about Yogi’s poor game either, as that is an abberation. The Hoosiers need Ferrell to produce this year and he will more often than not. This game will be a battle of tempos, and if I had to guess, I would say that Syracuse will drag the young Indiana down to their level. In a lower possession half court game, whoever matches up with Cooney is going to have an advantage and I will go with Sheehey in this one. Will has been a bit of a disappointment but should have a height and quickness advantage in this one. Noah Vonleh is one of the best freshman in the country and makes a solid play tonight as well even against the athletic Syracuse frontcourt.

Syracuse T: 65.6

CJ Fair is the guy for Syracuse but not the only guy you need to know about. Fair takes around 30% of the shots and should be able to abuse Hollowell anywhere on the court. Jerami Grant is really breaking out and I am going to try to use him while his price is still manageable. Trevor Cooney really does not do much but shoot 3’s and is going to have some major issues shooting them against the giant Indiana lineup. Tyler Ennis has really been frustrating as he has the guys around him to rack up the fantasy points but just does not seem able to put together a consistent few games.

Illinois T: 64.9

It really is incredible how Rayvonte Rice has actually become a solid offensive player after transferring from Drake. He had an under 100 offensive rating for 2 years and is now playing offense at a pretty solid clip while taking almost the same percent of the shots. This could be due to playing under a better coach or better teammates, or a mixture of both. Anyways, this Ray Rice is actually a pretty solid fantasy option on any given night, especially tonight against the revolving door of 2 men for Georgia Tech. If you want a GPP risk play, look at Jon Ekey who can get hot from 3 and Carter will have a hard time guarding him. Abrams takes a ton of shots as well and if cheap is a pretty high floor H2H guy.

Georgia Tech T: 70.4

I am really not sure what to make of this Georgia Tech team. They bring in a point guard and are now competitive against good teams but have not broken through. I really do not think they break through against Illinois either as John Groce is one hell of a coach. Georgia Tech plays Golden, Hunt, Carter, and Miller the most and these are the only guys I would consider in fantasy. Illinois plays very slow, so upside is limited but Robert Carter is one of the best rebounders in the game this year; it sucks that his offensive game leaves so much to be desired. Daniel Miller is a solid center for a site like DraftKings and I really like him in a game where Illinois lacks a good center. I liked Georges-Hunt a bit previously, but 2 of his last 3 games have been complete duds and he is a large risk.

Notre Dame T: 68.4

Notre Dame is going to have some of my favorite plays in the game tonight. Iowa’s fast pace is going to create some extra possessions for the Irish, especially Atkins, Grant and Connaughton who play almost the entire game. I like all 3 today and all 3 should have a great chance at making value. My favorite of the 3 is going to be Jerian Grant who is arguably the most talented offensive player on Notre Dame. I like him to score near 30 today with some auxiliary stats. Garrick Sherman can also make a solid play as he is near minimum salary on most sites and will get 20+ minutes in a high tempo game.

Iowa T: 71.8

Iowa frustrates me in a fantasy college hoops sort of way. They are very good this year and have one of the best offenses while playing a ton of possessions. This should equate into some major fantasy stars right? Well, no, because Fran McCaffery is playing a 10 man rotation big minutes, and even his best players are only getting 20 minutes per game. They still post decent stat lines, but the only two I would really consider here are Devyn Marble and Aaron White. In the game against Xavier, if Marble had not have been cramping, he would have scored 40, and in a game like this against Grant, we could have some serious fireworks. I would fire him up with confidence. Aaron White will have an advantage against Connaughton and if he gets enough minutes could really put up a stat line. I am not ready to give up on big red yet.

Penn State T: 66.9

Tim Frazier is one of the best distributing guards in the country, and it just cannot be understated. His assist rate is just ridiculous while holding up a solid shot percent, and it is obvious the offense runs through Tim. The issue here is that Pitt is one of the nations best defensive teams, and this game is going to be played at a very low pace. Tim can hardly be called a terrible play but in a game where Penn State may not reach 60 points, his upside is clearly limited. I like DJ Newbill as well as a player but I echo the same sentiments about Newbill that I do about Frazier. Ross Travis is a solid big man that gets a ton of minutes but his rebounds could be limited as Pittsburgh is very efficient offensively. I am just not loving any of the Penn State players upsides today, although a few could make decent H2H plays.

Pittsburgh T: 65.6

For Pittsburgh, Lamar Patterson has emerged as a complete stud. His offensive rating is off the charts and he is stuffing the stat sheet with assists and rebounds. If he is still medium priced I like him again in this game as a ton of the offense runs through him. James Robinson has a great offensive rating but only takes really good shots so he is a pretty risky play unless really cheap today. Cameron Wright has really emerged recently and is getting a ton of minutes. He may not contribute consistently in other categories but he is scoring at a solid rate. I like Pittsburgh players more than Penn State being home, and just better, but possessions are still going to be hard to come by and player ceilings should be tampered a bit.