College Basketball Grind Down: December 7th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-12-07 04:50:52

The first full slate of Saturday games happens today, albeit somewhat of a lack of big conference matchups, but enough to put a good slate together on FanDuel. There are some good value plays out there today and some games that look like clear fades. It seems hard to believe but conference play is going to be in full effect in 3 weeks so enjoy these non-conference matchups while possible. Let’s get out there and fill those GPPs to make sure the sites know there is interest in the sport.

All stats courtesy of kenpom.com

Kansas T: 69.8

This game has 2 of my most favorite values of the night. It should be a hotly contested game as Kansas has not been the dominant team that everyone expected them to be, which caused Self to make some changes. He is starting freshman Frank Mason in this game and also starting Joel Embiid at center and giving him more minutes. I think both guys make their value in this game as Embiid is a real talent who effects shots on the defensive end of the floor and has a touch around the rim not seen usually in people who have only been playing basketball for 3 years. Frank Mason is a big part of the offense when on the floor and I think he will make value with assists and some points. Wiggins is a hard guy to gauge as he has not lived up to the sky high expectations and may still be overpriced. As I noted earlier, Wiggins is not going to be a 20-10 guy because that just is not how Kansas works it. Perry Ellis should lead Kansas in scoring but at a high price is a risk because Kansas will score with the hot hand.

Colorado T: 70.8

This team confuses me, and I think they could be very good if they switch up the game plan a bit. Spencer Dinwiddie is the best player on the team and has the best offensive rating and is only taking 18.6 percent of the shots, while Askia Booker with the worst offensive rating is taking 31% of the shots, which makes no sense to me. The 2nd best offensive player, Josh Scott is taking 18% as well. I want to say that Dinwiddie is the best player on this team and the one with the most fantasy potential, as shown by the last game at Colorado State, but you just cannot be sure. I really dislike Scott’s matchup against Embiid as he is going to have a very rough time getting a decent shot against the big man. Booker will have a size advantage against Mason, but really only scores and does not provide any auxilary fantasy value. Wiggins is a superior defender and will probably be matched up against Dinwiddie and will make it tough for Spencer to do anything. I really do not like any guys from Colorado in this matchup.

UCLA T: 72.9

Kyle Anderson is an absolute fantasy stud and a threat for a triple double every single night. In a fast paced game against Missouri, he should be able to put up a ton of stats. Do not get cute and try to avoid him, as he generally plays most of the game and is has an innate ability to rebound and assist. Jordan Adams is shooting at an incredible percentage and without bum Shabazz is able to finally show off his worth taking 27% of the shots and shooting FGs at 63.8%. Adams is a great scorer and is another solid option on this team. Zach LaVine is a great offensive talent, but unless he is the best shooter on the planet, his 76% field goal percent is going to come down at some point. LaVine will have a game where he goes 0/10 from the floor and really disappoints fantasy owners so he is a risk. There are not really any good post options for UCLA as the Wears split time, Parker does not get a ton of minutes and Anderson steals all of the rebounds so I would stay away from them. I do not hate any individual matchups either in this one.

Missouri T: 69.7

Jordan Clarkson is the go to guy on this Missouri team even when people may have thought it was going to be Jabari Brown. It will be really interesting to see which one of those two Kyle Anderson guards. Due to the big over/under in this game I think that both make solid plays but if the same price I lean Clarkson as he takes more shots than brown and has a much better assist rate. Johnathan Williams is an enigma, as the freshman has had some great games and has also disappeared. Use him against the UCLA frontcourt with caution, although I think he matches up well if guarded by one of the Wears. Not really much else to see here as Clark only plays 20 minutes per game if that and Ross is very inconsistent, and is not shooting very well on the season. Although the over/under is high I still see Clarkson and Brown getting most of the points.

Texas T: 70.7

Texas’ only loss so far this season has came against a very solid BYU team that will make the tournament this year. They get a big shot against Temple today and if they win that one that will go a long way of solidifying this team as exceeding expectations. None of their tempo-free stats are very good except for Connor Lammert, and he is not getting much playing time or getting the shots when he is on the floor to make a good fantasy option. I am not enamored by their individual matchups against Temple but if cheap, Taylor could make a good play and Ridley or Holmes on sites that reward blocks and steals. Jonathan Holmes has really been better than Ridley this year but is not receiving as much playing time. I really dislike Rick Barnes as a coach and I think that he has really wasted a lot of the talent he has had at Texas and used his players improperly.

Temple T: 70.7

On the other hand, Fran Dunphy is a great coach and always seems to get the best out of his players even if he has a less talented team. There should be a decent amount of possessions in this game so the tall guards of DeCosey and Cummings will have a distinct advantage over the small guards Taylor and Felix so you can load up Cummings and DeCosey as pretty low risk plays today. I also like Anthony Lee who is a proven star in the middle and is really the only solid rebounder Temple has. Texas has the big bodies to throw at Lee though so he is somewhat of a risk. Dalton Pepper is statistically the most efficient offensive player on this team and has scored 16 or more in his last 3 games, you can use him with confidence as well. Any of the top 4 Temple players you cannot really go wrong with.

Clemson T: 62.0

Here we have the classic battle of tempo vs no tempo. Clemson would rather slow it down and play half court and Arkansas tries to run at every opportunity. Not sure who wins the tempo battle, but I am sure that Clemson will get a few extra possessions in this game making KJ McDaniels one of my favorite plays of the night. He takes over 30% of the shots, is extremely athletic and is Clemson’s best player. He has a poor game last time out so his salary will be a little depressed. The emergence of Devin Coleman is big, and while Coleman taking a lot of shots will take away from McDaniels, the extra tempo more than makes up for it. Coleman has played big minutes in the past 2 games and been a big part of the offense. If he is cheap, he is going to score and make value, but I would not pay much more than average salary for him. Rod Hall has actually been statistically Clemson’s most efficient offensive player and is a low risk low salary option who will come close to value. With the extra possessions and the tendency of Arkansas to run, he could be a sneaky play.

Arkansas T: 74.4

Here we go. I know there is value here on Arkansas, but I really hate using Mike Anderson guys especially not recently. He has 10 guys all getting major minutes and only 2 guys are playing over 60% of the minutes. Michael Qualls is a solid play as he has scored in double digits every game and had some other stats. Qualls should match up against KJ McDaniels, however, which puts a hurting in his value. Another guy to look at would be Alandise Harris who is the most involved player while on the floor. He takes the most shots when given the opportunity, but be advised he may only play 20 minutes per game so his upside is limited. Arkansas has just a plethora of pretty average athletic players who play at a frantic pace and get subbed in and subbed out quickly. They may even lose some possessions playing against slow, plodding Clemson.

Marquette T: 67.2

I am not even sure why I am bothering to preview this game. If it was me, I would just avoid Marquette entirely as they are playing at Wisconsin, which could get very, very, ugly. Neither team is very fast and Wisconsin is very good defensively, especially at home. If you really want to pain yourself and play a Marquette player I would take a flier on Davante Gardner as he has the strength down low to battle Kaminsky and should be the only guy who can get decent looks against this Wisconsin defense. I would not be surprised if Marquette did not score 50 in this game.

Wisconsin T: 65.2

Wisconsin players are a bit better than Marquette, as they are around 10 point favorites. The problem is, that they rebound as a team and they score as a team and play typical, slow Wisconsin basketball. Upside is definitely limited here, but Kaminsky has been solid, and Trae Jackson is very consistent and has a very high floor. I expected a little bit more out of Dekker, and although he has a risk he has a nice chance of producing today against Wilson.

Penn State T: 67.5

If you want to go with a stars and scrubs approach today and roster Anderson and Frazier, I cannot blame you. Tim Frazier is a beast and will make Penn St competitive in the Big 10 this year. They are projected by kenpom.com to score 88 in this game which means Frazier could be in for one of his 45 fantasy point games. I would definitely pay up for him here. Newbill also makes a great play as he palys a ton of the game, takes a ton of the shots, just does not get as many assists as Frazier. I couldn’t argue against Ross Travis either as his price should have dropped after a poor game where he was in foul trouble. Neither of the other 2 starters really strike my fancy although if min priced, could be good scrubs to pair with Frazier.

Marshall T: 65.6

Tough luck for those who used Ryan Taylor for Marshall’s last game as he did not play. I am not sure if he is going to play in this one, so unless you see something definitive on him playing, it is best to avoid here. Kareem Canty is one of the better freshmen in the country, playing a ont of minutes, taking a ton of shots, and running the offense. If he is cheap, use him with confidence as even if Marshall gets blown out, they should still score a bunch. Elijah Pittman is the stud here and is taking a ton of shots. This should be a fun game with not a lot of defense so if you want to go cheap here I would look at Chris Thomas as well who makes the most of his scoring opportunites while on the floor.

Alabama T: 65.8

Another game where I am not actively seeking out players from this game is this Alabama/South Florida game. Alabama plays at a snails pace, and Releford has been a disappointment so far. I thought he would be taking 35% of the shots, but they are spreading it around this year, mostly to people who are worse scorers. I still like Releford and if I am trying for an Alabama player, I am trying for him. Obasohan has been a nice surprise and while his upside is limited is still a decent option if bottom 50% salary. I do not like Nick Jacobs as he is way too inconsisten to trust and will have to match up against the taller Egbunu. Rodney Cooper has really gotten worse from last year and is playing less minutes, so there is no reason to try something fancy here.

South Florida T: 69.5

This game will be a litmus test for USF as they have beaten those they were supposed to beat and lose to those they were supposed to lose to. Chris Perry and Corey Allen have given this team 2 scorers which they desperately lacked the last 3 years. Anthony Collins is a great distributing point guard who will get his assists, but he has really stopped shooting the ball and all of his offensive game has declined. Chris Perry is not worth a start unless bottom 25% salary but I would use Corey Allen and Victor Rudd as my 2 favorite players from this game. Neither Obasohan nor Releford can guard Allen and Rodney Cooper guarding Rudd is not a good option for Alabama. I think USF pulls this one off just due to matchup problems they pose to Alabama.