College Basketball Grind Down: Fri, Mar, 14th
What a Thursday, but if you think Thursday was something just wait for today. The teams who aren’t playing well should be eliminated and there should really be some solid semi and quarterfinal games today. I didn’t fare too well last night but with some extra research time and time to give everyone a breakdown I’m expecting better results tonight.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com, and make sure to search for injuries but if you have been playing the last couple of days you should know what’s going on already. I will touch on any notable injuries but confirm them before tip. I am going to do it a little bit different today and break it down by conference with a little smaller of a breakdown for every team so let’s get to it.
ACC
Virginia 66 vs Florida State 60
Not a real good game to target, as Virginia is one of the slowest, best defensive teams in the country. They are about to get a 1 seed because of those two things so why chance it? Just fade Florida State completely. As for Virginia, Malcolm Brogdon and Joe Harris are their scorers and Akil Mitchell is the defensive guy who rebounds but this game doesn’t bring much fantasy upside.
North Carolina 70 vs Pittsburgh 71
Am I crazy to like Pittsburgh in this game? I really think so. UNC gets the tempo drag and Pitt gets the boost. Lamar Patterson doesn’t get enough love but he is a stud and should be good in this game. Zanna played his best game last night but could struggle against the length of UNC. James Robinson makes a sneaky play tonight for cheap salary as I think he could do some damage after not playing many minutes yesterday.
Syracuse 69 vs NC State 62
I’ve consistently thought that Syracuse has been a 4 seed for this entire year, and still think that’s the seed they deserve. This game should be good for their fantasy profile however as NC State cannot defend. I like CJ Fair and Tyler Ennis in this game, and also like Jerami Grant if his price has dropped since his injury. I would fade Christmas and Cooney in this game. TJ Warren is still matchup proof but I am avoiding him against as he may struggle to get his close floaters against the Cuse zone. No one else from NC State gets me excited.
Duke 67 vs Clemson 61
I think a lot of people may go with Parker and Hood tonight but I will be fading them. Brad Brownell has Clemson playing some of the best defense in the country and Parker is one of the most expensive players out there. The upside just isn’t there for the Duke players tonight and considering that Hood refuses to rebound the basketball, he is out of play as well. I am just going to be ignoring Duke tonight. On the other hand, I think KJ McDaniels makes a solid play tonight as he really wasn’t a big part of the offense against Georgia Tech and he needs to be against Duke. No one else on Clemson is worth looking at.
AAC
Houston 67 vs Louisville 84
Houston gets it’s shot at some history here when it takes on probably the best team in the conference. They have the talent with TaShawn Thomas, LJ Rose and Danuel House to pull the upset but will they? I would fade this team because of L’ville’s defensive prowess and tendency to play slow games. On the Louisville side, I like Russ Smith and Montrezl Harrell and think they should have solid games as long as Louisville doesn’t win by 61…that’s what they won by yesterday, right?
Cincinnati 60 vs Connecticut 59
While I feel like this is going to be a great game, I’m seriously wary of taking anyone from this game. As we know, Cincinnati is a great defensive team and plays at a really slow tempo. UConn is pretty slow as well and also plays great defense. The last 2 games between these teams have been 64 and 62 possessions averaging 62 PPG. Just ignore this one for fantasy purposes.
Big East
Seton Hall 67 vs Providence 70
You have to think that if the Friars win this game they are in, but Seton Hall won’t be an easy task. The Pirates are finally healthy and have confidence having just knocked off Villanova. Gene Teague has been a boss inside but if his price has risen I don’t like him tonight as Providence has the guys to get him in foul trouble. Providence is pretty average defensively but I like guards against them rather than forwards. Bryce Cotton is back in play after a poor game and his price has came down; Seton Hall isn’t a team that can stop him and he should have a typical 24-4-4 game tonight. Providence is a pretty solid team to take one of the big 5 who plays most of the game and it’s just if you hit on which one gets hot whether you do well.
Creighton 77 vs. Xavier 71
Creighton doesn’t have the matchup they did against DePaul but they still should be able to score at will against X. It’s kind of silly to predict Doug’s total right now as he will shoot 20-25 times per game. Just take his FG% and average it out for yourself whether he will make value because the matchup really doesn’t matter. I still don’t use anyone else from Creighton as they just don’t get enough touches on offense to make them reliable. Stainbrook came back last game and played 15 minutes so he essentially moves Philmore and Reynolds back to unplayable status. Christon is a great play as he has owned Creighton in the first two games scoring 27 and 21 and Justin Martin has done some crazy work against Creighton in their previous two games. Use both 2 with easy today.
Big Ten
Michigan 65 vs Illinois 60
Is there anyone else but me who thinks it’s ridiculous that Michigan is a favorite for a 2 seed? This team isn’t that great of a favorite against Illinois today and none of their players make that great of plays. Caris LeVert should be the top salary guy with Nik Stauskas not far behind. Glenn Robinson should be a little bit above minimum but against Illinois’ slow pace and solid defense, they really aren’t that great of a play. Michigan has a pretty average defense considering all factors and Kendrick Nunn should continue being a solid value play, and I think Rayvonte Rice could be an upside play in this game. Nice game by Abrams against Indiana but I don’t see him continuing that against Michigan.
Nebraska 60 vs Ohio State 63
I think it’s crazy that Nebraska forced Ohio State to play the “play-in” game yesterday for this matchup. Nebraska should be safe in my opinion but they could really use this game. Terran Petteway deserves a lot of the credit but the improvements of Shavon Shields and Walter Pitchford deserve credit as well. I am going to fade everyone today except for Petteway just due to Ohio State’s solid defense. Ohio State absolutely refused to play to Purdue’s tempo and they really could have some trouble if this turns into a scoring contest as LaQuinton Ross is the only guy who can create his own shot. I would use Ross if cheap enough here but be careful with Craft and Smith.
Wisconsin 71 vs Minnesota 66
Well hello #1 Wisconsin; you have to believe that if Wisconsin wins the Big 10 tournament they will be a #1 seed lock. This is far from a guarantee though and they have to get by Minnesota first. I am not sure I like anyone other than Dekker in this game as Minnesota really matches up well against the Wisconsin guards and forwards with Walker, Eliason, and the Hollins’. Speaking of Minnesota, Deandre Mathieu has really been playing well lately and has performed against Wisconsin so far this year. He could be a sneaky, not so owned play tonight.
Michigan State 64 vs Northwestern 55
This game is so scary for me. I have no confidence in my team right now against any team but I do have confidence in them winning the Big 10 tournament if that makes sense. In the DFS sense, I would avoid Michigan State players today as Northwestern plays solid defense and also plays at a slow tempo. Northwestern players have been solid plays recently and Tre Demps should continue to be a value play as long as he can hit some 3’s against Gary Harris and Alex Olah will be a solid play as MSU doesn’t have a true center.
Big 12
Iowa State 76 vs Kansas 83
This projection includes Embiid so make it a bit closer. That being said, this is still a great game to target as Niang should provide great value as should DeAndre Kane because there is no one on Kansas who can guard a tall, physical guard like Kane out on the perimeter unless Wiggins leaves Niang. Ejim had a couple of poor games against Kansas and I am fading him today. The one guy I am not fading is Andrew Wiggins who has been dynamite without Embiid as he has had to be the #1 option. The great thing about Wiggins in this game is that it is played at a high tempo and he has proved to be a solid option against Iowa State even when Embiid was playing. Perry Ellis is cheap and should make value but he isn’t as great of a value play as one might think. This is definitely a game to target and using anyone from this game can’t be a bad a idea.
Baylor 70 vs Texas
Isaiah Taylor really burned me last night and I’m going to be fading him tonight. Baylor is a pretty solid defensive team and I think Taylor’s 10-18 against Baylor earlier in the year was a bit of a fluke. Baylor is fairly slow and I may be avoiding most of the Texas team unless they are cheap. Royce O’Neale continues to be extremely cheap and stuffs the stat sheet for Baylor so don’t look away from him. I like Kenny Chery as well in this game but his salary has soared through the roof. Isaiah Austin makes a solid play on any site right now and Cory Jefferson is Baylor’s top NBA prospect. If you can’t tell, I really like Baylor today.
Pac 12
Colorado 57 vs Arizona 68
Arizona has to be my favorite to win the title at this point, as they just completely annihilated a pretty solid Utah team in the last game. I would be wary of any Colorado player today as the best defense in the country will be facing them. On the Arizona side, they play really balanced on offense and Colorado isn’t the most fantasy-friendly defense to play. I may just ignore this game completely and move on to the next one.
UCLA 76 vs Stanford 75
I’m actually kind of surprised to see this projected score on a neutral floor for these two teams. Stanford is a solid basketball team especially when Dwight Powell is playing aggressive and opening up things for Brown and Randle on the outside. I like Stanford players today especially Powell who showed me a little bit in his 2nd half against Arizona State in the last game. He makes a great bargain at what he is at now. I also like Chasson Randle and Anthony Brown, but I think Josh Huestis is a little too expensive to roster here. On the UCLA side, Anderson and Adams have been dropped to an affordable price and I wouldn’t be opposed to building your roster around Anderson although he has been just average recently. My thing is though, that other than the Kansas/Iowa State game, this one should be the highest scoring.
SEC
Missouri 63 vs Florida 73
After seeing what Missouri was able to do against Texas A&M, is there any doubt that Florida is going to obliterate the Tigers? Missouri was very bad in a general form against a pretty bad team, and it didn’t help their fantasy value that they went to 2OT. Brown and Clarkson are the 2 guys here but to use any guards against Florida is fantasy suicide. I like Wilbekin here and I also like Patric Young but I wouldn’t pay up for the two as this could be a blowout and minutes distributed by the many Florida players.
South Carolina 63 vs Tennessee 73
I think that if any major conference team is going to pull off a ridiculous tournament run it’s going to be the Gamecocks. They could survive a poor game today against the schizophrenic Vols but they could also lose by 50. Tennessee has been playing really well and Barton, McRae, Stokes and Maymon all make solid plays today. I am not a fan of Richardson’s game although I wouldn’t argue if you used him. SC is much faster than Tennessee and the Vols offense has been so efficient lately that this game looks like a gold mine for Tennessee although you still never know what you will get from them. On the other side, Brenton Williams has been so good for SC he is hard to ignore on DK and FD for how cheap he is and Sindarius Thornwell is about as good of a play on DS for the same price. Anyone else I would be careful of because I think Frank Martin forgets which Lithuanian is on the floor at times and is the CBB version of Popovich.
LSU 71 vs Kentucky 76
Is anyone excited for this rubber match as I am? LSU matches up incredible against Kentucky as they have the ability to stop the scoring inside and force Kentucky into shooting the 3’s they miss so poorly. If you can get LSU at 5 point dogs I would definitely take that as they hav proven time and time again they can play Kentucky even or better in every 40 minutes. Johnny O’Bryant is a boss and has been a boss in the games against Kentucky and I love him today. I also like Jarell Martin today and Shavon Coleman as he has been playing well lately and gets minutes against Kentucky to deal with their guard size. This is one of my favorite storylines of this Friday and will certainly be tweeting about this game as both previous meetings have been memorable.
Ole Miss 71 vs Georgia 70
The SEC poses a ton of interesting matchups today. If LSU beats Kentucky, at least one team who isn’t an at-large team will be playing for a tournament bid, and it could be Marshall Henderson. Not really sure how to analyze Henderson and his matchup because the Rebels will just run him off 5 screens to get him an open 3. Summers is great but Georgia’s overall defense is pretty solid. The team who really gets the boost here is the Bulldogs who will use a lot of Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines to disrupt the Rebels. If Mann is cheap, I certainly recommend him here and if you can get Gaines cheaper he should put together a 20pt fantasy point night. Marcus Thornton gets a lot of minutes but is there for defense and is pretty up and down as to his fantasy production. You don’t have to use anyone from this game but if you choose right it could be a big advantage, hint: Mann.