College Basketball Grind Down: November 25th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-11-25 18:49:04

Preseason tournaments are in full form, but unfortunately most of the sites do not have anything after the first round. There are great matchups all around in these things but I am going to continue to focus on what games are offered on FanDuel and highlight some other ones that may be offered on the other 2 big sites. There are some really high scoring games tonight so finding the right value plays in those games are going to be paramount.

All stats are courtesy of kenpom.com

Oklahoma State T: 73.9

This is a really interesting game which could end up being a trap for Oklahoma State at the Sun Dome. Obviously everyone knows about Marcus Smart and I like his matchup against the returned Anthony Collins, so if you can afford him fire him up with confidence. Markel Brown should be cheaper than usual due to his recent struggles but is a stud and is going to have his big games this year. Brown is a risk along with Le’Bryan Nash who is famous for underperforming. Nash is a great talent but seems lost sometimes without a way to use his great scoring ability. With Smart and Brown being the #1 and #2 options, Nash is only taking about 17% of the shots and really makes me nervous even with a solid rebounding rate. The return of Brian Williams cannot be understated and he has been really scoring the ball efficiently even without taking that many shots. I do not like Williams’ matchup however against the fierce USF D and will most likely be matched up against Brock. Michael Cobbins is not an option, he is not a good offensive player and to make value he would have to rack up the blocks and rebounds which is really just too risky for me.

South Florida T: 67.7

This is Stan Heath’s fastest team since he has been at South Florida. While Heath played some decent tempo at Arkansas, he was always at the bottom of the tempo charts in the past 3 years. The good thing about Heath’s teams playing almost 8 more possessions per game than last year is certain guys are now in play fantasy wise. Collins is back and played 32 minutes last game and if he is cheap is a very solid option as the PG. Corey Allen even with Collins back is playing a ton of minutes and is a burgeoning star. Roll Allen out with confidence today. Rudd has been a bit of a disappointment to me this year and while he is a huge risk today, you cannot argue that he has a great matchup against Nash who can fall asleep on defense at times. I really am not thinking much about anyone else, Brock is not out there for his offense and Egbunu is much too inconsistent for me. Chris Perry minutes have also disappeared so I wouldn’t consider him either. While Collins and Allen get the green light, I am still very nervous about Heath slowing this game to a halt trying to control the amount of possessions with a less talented team.

Pittsburgh T: 65.9

Pittsburgh has scored a bunch in their first 4 games and been efficient in doing so. Do not be confused though, they are still playing at a very slow tempo. Lamar Patterson has been the stud here and makes a solid play as he stuffs the stat sheet and Texas Tech is generally horrible on defense. Other than Patterson, I am not in love with any of the Pittsburgh players today as the minutes get spread around and they are all really inconsistent. The one guy I would take a GPP flier on is Talib Zanna who has had a couple of monster games but has some foul issues and does not play a full complement of minutes usually.

Texas Tech T: 66.5

This game could get really ugly for Texas Tech. They are not great defensively and struggle against solid defensive teams. Depending on the price, I may consider Turner, Crockett or Tolbert as they are the 3 go-to guys but I generally try to stay away from teams who are projected to be one of the lowest scoring teams of the night.

Marquette T: 69.0

Marquette along with Texas Tech really scares the living daylights out of me. They are just not good offensively, actually ranking 269th out of all D-1 teams in the short sample this year. Todd Mayo is a decently safe play with his 30% shot percentage, but noone on Marquette is playing much over half the possible minutes except for Derrick Wilson. Wilson does not make too much of a good play either as he has scored 4 points all season. Davante Gardner makes the most out of his minutes, but if he is to play 30 minutes in a game he may go into cardiac arrest which forces Buzz to play him 20-25 really hurting his fantasy prospects. Jamil Wilson was the guy who made the most strides last year but is slumping right now and cannot be trusted. Marquette has a tough matchup against Arizona State and is actually 7 point underdogs in this game and projected to score 63 points. The brutal performance against Ohio State is really scaring me away.

Arizona State T: 70.1

I love this team and am one of Jahii Carson’s biggest fans. You will have to pay to get the best player in the Pac-12 and it should be worth it today. Wilson will not be able to keep up with Carson off the bounce and other than Doug McDermott, Carson is one of the surest things you can have in fantasy CBB. Jordan Bachynski has finally solidified himself in the rotation, and with expanded minutes is really putting together some solid stat lines. On a site like FanDuel that rewards blocks, he is a great play as well. Gilling and Marshall are speculative plays as they can fill up the stat sheet however need to get the usage which is hard with Carson taking 30% of the team’s shots.

Stanford T: 71.9

Let’s just start out by saying that we can safely ignore Nastic as he only gets 46% of available minutes and in certain games where he does not match up well he may not even play. Dwight Powell has been struggling a bit lately but he will right the ship as he is very good. I have no problems against using him even with the potential matchup against TaShawn Thomas. Huestis will most likely be matched up against House and makes a decent play although pretty risky. Huestis is usually pretty solid with blocks so he makes a better play on FanDuel. The real guy to own here is Chasson Randle. Randle has shown that his slump last year was a fluke and fills up the bucket this year. His matchup against LJ Rose is tough but Randle will find a way to get his points. Anthony Brown had a breakout game last time out and if he emerges as a 4th option for Stanford, it could finally be the piece that Stanford is looking for to make it to the next level. If Brown is cheap, he plays a ton of minutes, has a good offensive game and just needs opportunities to post a solid stat line.

Houston T: 70.6

I actually really like this Houston team. Yes, they haven’t played anyone yet, but they have a solid PG in LJ Rose, 2 of the best unknown players in Danuel House and TaShawn Thomas and a solid piece in Jherrod Stiggers. I really would not be surprised if this team made some noise in the AAC with the talent they have on the roster. While Thomas is a stud, I do not like his matchup too much as Powell can really drive and there is a chance he could get in foul trouble. I will take the safer route and play House today who is a bit cheaper and will most likely be against Huestis who is much more content taking jump shots than driving on his defender. House takes 30% of available shots along with being a decent rebounder and facilitator and can fill the stat sheet. LJ Rose is way too cheap across the industry and makes a great play today in a game I am expecting will be high scoring and a fun affair. I am definitely targeting guys from this one.

Some other notes from DraftKings / Draftstreet:

Florida – The Gators face off against Jacksonville today and Ken Pomeroy has them to score 80. Florida is banged up but gets Wilbekin is back from suspension to play the point, and I would expect him to step right in and play 30 minutes at least. I would roll him out with confidence. Also Prather and Finney-Smith are still solid plays but DeVon Walker fades back into fantasy irrelevance.

Texas – BYU is the equivalent of facing the 76ers in NBA. They play a ton of possessions and do not care too much about solid defense. Texas is projected to score 86 in a loss and basically all players make good plays here. Isaiah Taylor is underpriced and should be a solid stat sheet stuffer, Jonathan Holmes is a nice play, along with Javan Felix. You cannot really go wrong here taking any Texas player in this one.

Iowa State – Iowa State is projected to score 93 in this game against UMKC and I am really liking a GPP guy like Naz Long in this game. He should be wide open for some 3’s and get some extra playing time if this turns into a blowout. I cannot blame you if you want to use DeAndre Kane, Melvin Ejim, or Georges Niang either as Iowa State has to score those points somehow and they are pretty safe options.

Kentucky – If you can afford to roster Julius Randle, he has a very good chance to be the highest scoring player of the night. Kentucky is poised to blow out Cleveland State in a high paced game and essentially everyone for Kentucky is in play. The Harrison twins have been wildly inconsistent but I can almost guarantee one of them will blow his value out of the water in this game.